rp08orbust
05-15-2011, 07:05 AM
In thinking about what seems to be a trend where Ron Paul tends to poll best among Republicans in blue states, and better nationally among those who describe themselves as "liberal Republicans" and "moderate Republicans" than among self-described "conservative Republicans" (as little sense as that makes), I started wondering how Ron Paul currently fairs against Obama on an electoral college basis. Perhaps states where Ron Paul did best in 2008 primaries and caucuses are states Ron Paul would flip from blue to red, meaning his strength against Obama might be even stronger than the CNN poll from a couple weeks ago indicates.
Thus, I'm wondering if it would be worthwhile for the Ron Paul campaign to pay a respected polling company to do some Paul vs Obama polling in some blue states where Ron Paul has seen his best primary/caucus/poll results. If my suspicion proved correct, then this would be a huge selling point and he could draw a lot of attention to it with Jesse Benton presenting the results in a press conference. It would create a fresh topic for Ron Paul interviewers that would crowd out stupid subjects like heroin and the Obama kill.
If we assume Ron Paul is safe in every state that McCain won except McCain's home state of Arizona (a total of 163 electoral votes by the 2000 census), then some Paul-friendly states (among Republicans) lost by McCain where Ron Paul might do surprisingly well against Obama would include Washington (11), Oregon (7), Nevada (5), Arizona (10), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Indiana (11), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21), Maine (4) and New Hampshire (4), which covers 121 electoral votes by the 2000 census.
I've never heard of a Republican candidate doing such polling before winning the nomination, but as we know, Ron Paul is a highly unusual Republican candidate who might call for some very unorthodox primary campaigning. It would probably not benefit conventional Republican primary candidates to do polling like this because conventional Republican candidates tend to be pretty much the same, by definition, and thus there wouldn't likely be any surprising advantages for one Republican candidate over another in matches with the Democrat opponent. But who knows, Ron Paul might be able to say things like, "See, I, and only I, could beat Obama in Michigan!"
Thus, I'm wondering if it would be worthwhile for the Ron Paul campaign to pay a respected polling company to do some Paul vs Obama polling in some blue states where Ron Paul has seen his best primary/caucus/poll results. If my suspicion proved correct, then this would be a huge selling point and he could draw a lot of attention to it with Jesse Benton presenting the results in a press conference. It would create a fresh topic for Ron Paul interviewers that would crowd out stupid subjects like heroin and the Obama kill.
If we assume Ron Paul is safe in every state that McCain won except McCain's home state of Arizona (a total of 163 electoral votes by the 2000 census), then some Paul-friendly states (among Republicans) lost by McCain where Ron Paul might do surprisingly well against Obama would include Washington (11), Oregon (7), Nevada (5), Arizona (10), New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Minnesota (10), Indiana (11), Michigan (17), Pennsylvania (21), Maine (4) and New Hampshire (4), which covers 121 electoral votes by the 2000 census.
I've never heard of a Republican candidate doing such polling before winning the nomination, but as we know, Ron Paul is a highly unusual Republican candidate who might call for some very unorthodox primary campaigning. It would probably not benefit conventional Republican primary candidates to do polling like this because conventional Republican candidates tend to be pretty much the same, by definition, and thus there wouldn't likely be any surprising advantages for one Republican candidate over another in matches with the Democrat opponent. But who knows, Ron Paul might be able to say things like, "See, I, and only I, could beat Obama in Michigan!"