How many votes are needed in your state?

[goRPaul]

Here I have compiled each states' total votes in the past two primaries. Many states cancelled their primary elections in '04 because Bush ran unopposed, and voter turnout was also lower in most states.

This can be used as a guide to how many people we need to put in the ballot boxes in the upcoming primaries.


===============================
State 2004 votes 2000 votes
-------------------|----------------|--------------
Alabama- 201,487 203,077
Arkansas- 38,363 44,573
California- 2,216,351 2,847,921
Georgia- 161,374 643,188
Idaho- 123,793 158,446

Illinois- 583,575 736,857
Indiana- 469,528 406,664
Kentucky- 117,379 91,323
Louisiana- 72,010 102,912
Massachusetts- 69,278 501,951

Maryland- 151,943 376,034
Missouri- 123,086 475,363
Montana- 112,747 113,671
Nebraska- 121,355 185,758
New Mexico- 49,165 75,230

New Jersey- 211,218 240,810
*New Hampshire- 67,833 238,206
Ohio- 793,833 1,397,528
Oklahoma- 66,198 124,809
Oregon- 309,506 354,594

Pennsylvania- 861,555 643,085
Rhode Island- 2,535 36,120
Tennessee- 99,061 250,791
Texas- 687,615 1,126,757
Vermont- 26,289 81,355

West Virginia- 111,109 109,404
Wisconsin- 159,884 495,769


Alaska- n/a 4,330
Arizona- 322,669
Colorado- 180,655
Connecticut- 178,985
Delaware- 30,060

DC- 2,433
*Florida- 699,317
*Iowa- 86,359
Maine- 96,624
*Michigan- 1,276,770

Minnesota- 18,401
Mississippi- 114,979
New York- 2,161,518
North Carolina- 322,517
North Dakota- 9,066

Puerto Rico- 92,749
*South Carolina- 573,101
South Dakota- 45,279
Utah- 91,053
Virginia- 664,093

Washington- 491,148


NO POPULAR VOTE RECORDED:
Hawaii, *Nevada, *Wyoming
========================
Information gathered from www.thegreenpapers.com

Keep in mind that some factors can seriously affect voter turnout: "openness," date (whether its an early or late primary), and Democratic primary turnout are a few.

[goRPaul]

Had to fix it up a bit. Tell me what you think- useful information?

[ross11988]

useful but discouraging :(

[Primbs]

We have to go with the numbers from 2000 because that was an open seat race and a contested primary.

Don't be discouraged. We already have thousand of donors, a large army of supporters, a great candidate and and a spectacular message.

And we have a divided republican field and nobody is really a front runner.

Rudy is declining any many polls.

[njandrewg]

1) Add how many votes the top candidate got(thats the most important factor)
2) "predict" the current condition of Republican party by removing 1/3 of the numbers
3) Divide the total number by 4 to show what the split vote will most likely look like. and to tell us how much we'll need

Example NH:
McCain: 115,490
Bush: 72,262
Forbes: 30,197


So to win in 2000, you only needed 115,000 votes. But since then the GOP has lost about 1/3 of its members, so that would mean you only need to win: 75,900 votes. But this time we have 4 front runners(technically 6 so its split even further), so that number is more like: 238,206 / 4 = 59,551 people.

But that 60K is still too generous, because the votes in NH are open, and way more independants got turned off the GOP since then, so I would say we probalby need about 40K to win NH

[malibu]

As an example, Iowa in 2000 had a bit lower of a turnout than 1996 - 89,000 GOP caucus voters acciording to the Iowa GOP - but look at 1996 with 96,000 and the Pat Buchanan results which is do-able.

1996 Republican Caucus Results
98% of precincts reporting :

Robert Dole 25,378 26.3%
Pat Buchanan 22,512 23.3%
Lamar Alexander 17,003 17.6%
Steve Forbes 9,816 10.2%
Phil Gramm 9,001 9.3%
Alan Keyes 7,179 7.4%
Richard Lugar 3,576 3.7%
Morry Taylor 1,380 1.4%
No preference 428 0.4%
Robert Dornan 131 0.1%
Other 47 0.04%
TOTAL : 96,451

The Libertarian US Senate candidate got 15,000 votes in 2004 -
so if RP got those 15,000 or more - VERY realistic IMHO - he'd have a good start to the later primary states where cash can be spent more.

[spivey378]

is there any way to tell voter turnout this early? a lot of former GOP'ers may not even want to vote because of the state of the party.......

[DjLoTi]

Yes, this is exactly what we need. We need to crunch the numbers.

[spivey378]

bump

[RonPaulStreetTeam]

wow 2 million here in California.....

and I know most of them are bent on Hiltlary and Obomba

RED STATES WE NEED YOU TO PULL THROUGH THIS TIME! lol

Prove these guys wrong! ( I did believe them after the last 2 bush elections however both parties might as well been Bush.)
http://www.bettybowers.com/graphics/jesuslandmap.gif

United State of TEXAS do your job!
http://www.wickedsunshine.com/WagePeace/Election2004/Images/UnitedStateOfTexas.gif


=(

[surf]

In Washington we need to convince people that their vote in the D primary is worthless (as all their delegates will be determined through caucuses)
Baja Canada is doable if we can just convince the anti-war Ds of this.

[Bradley in DC]

We analyzed the data through the 1996 election on voting histories, voter registration, etc., and we agreed on an estimate of 3,000 in DC.