PDA

View Full Version : Are there any polls that have only the candidates from May 5 debate?




dude58677
05-08-2011, 04:45 PM
This is the only fair poll becuase the other candidates such as Romney, Trump, Huckabee, and Palin are not running.

Romney- Won't run because of RomneyCare will catch up to him.

Trump- Won't run because he will have to disclose all his finances

Huckabee- Has his own televison show

Palin- She said she enjoys outdoor activites up in Alaska and being with her family.

With all of them out, Ron Paul leads the polls.

kah13176
05-08-2011, 04:47 PM
I think we're being too presumptive here. I think all of them are probable to run.

dude58677
05-08-2011, 04:52 PM
I think we're being too presumptive here. I think all of them are probable to run.

No, the media hates the fact that they are not running becuase then Ron Paul would be defeated. There were a couple of news reports where they said that the Presidential Debates were not worth watching because their favorite candidates were not there. They said that Haley Barbour would run and he didn't.

realtonygoodwin
05-08-2011, 05:01 PM
I think Romney will run. The others are less likely to run.

trey4sports
05-08-2011, 05:05 PM
Romney will definetly run, and despite the claims of Huck letting go of his SC team i certainly do believe he will be running...

dude58677
05-08-2011, 05:08 PM
Romney will definetly run, and despite the claims of Huck letting go of his SC team i certainly do believe he will be running...

They would have done so by now.

realtonygoodwin
05-08-2011, 05:10 PM
Romney has formed an exploratory committee...

dude58677
05-08-2011, 05:13 PM
Romney has formed an exploratory committee...

Ron Paul would still be a contender. Romney, T-Paw, and Santorum will split the vote and the Tea Party is going to go for Ron Paul. Gary Thompson will stick around and demand that Fox igives fair debates. The media wil not like it and will whine about it but they are powerless unlike 2008.

One Last Battle!
05-08-2011, 05:41 PM
Romney is almost certainly going to run. He has lots of money, is viewed as "serious", and has media support. The way things are going now, he could probably win so long as he held on to his current lead and avoided talking about healthcare and abortion as much as possible. He might hold off this year if he gets exposed early on and loses a bunch of support, though.

Huckabee might run. Maybe. If he does, he will probably be the biggest drain to Paul, since many who would otherwise love Paul (especially in Iowa) feel obligated to vote for Huck due to his Christian credentials. I know for a fact that many Huckabee supporters like Paul quite a bit and would happily jump ship if he didn't run (it helps that out of the original class of '08, Huckster was one of the most respectful for Paul: Romney laughed at him, Giuliani got into red faced rants at him, McCain attacked him, but Huckabee generally avoided that. Then he stole a bunch of Ron's views, gave it a "mainstream" coat of paint, and went to town). If Huckabee runs, it will be a bit of a problem, especially in the South and Iowa.

Palin is more likely than Huck, but less likely than Romney. I think she is looking at her polling, Bachmann stealing her base, at her own status as a celebrity, and wondering if running would really be worthwhile. She probably could win the primary if she got lucky and tried hard, but winning the general would be impossible short of Obama eating a baby or the economy going to hell a month or two before election night (any earlier and Paul would probably seize the momentum and win). If she didn't run, we might get a small boost, but a lot of her supporters are complete idiots and unlikely to back Paul on their own initiative. On the other hand, she has a much higher chance of backing Paul outright over, say, Huck, and that would give him a HUGE bonus (even moreso than Huck not running, maybe).

Gingrich is the fourth "main" opposition guy, and I really don't see how he will manage anything. Seriously, no one cares much about him and he is getting his support from the "old cadre" of the 90s that recognize him and generally support "the party" over personality (Palin, Huck, Trump) or ideology (Paul, Huck, Theocrats). I honestly think he is a non-factor. If he doesn't run, that support will go every which way, and if he does he will probably sap a tiny bit from everyone. His support has been dwindling recently compared to Paul's rising, and he has few advantages to play for to gain extra support.

Trump is the fifth opponent, and I would say he is also irrelevant. He gained a huge boost from loudly claiming to be a birther, and now that Obama's birth certificate has been released his support is falling apart just as fast. He has no other concrete views to speak of, and no solid fanbase that would follow him through hell and back. Also, running would involve huge disclosures of his funds, and with the way his support has been going I don't think he will bother. Dunno where his support is going to go, but maybe he will be a sport and back Paul, which would be a minor bonus.


All in all, not much of a field. Victory is certainly closer than it was in 2008. At worst, it will be a huge long shot with all of the above running, which is better than in 08 (where the odds were, frankly, "nigh impossible"). At best, it will be practically a breeze with Palin backing Paul, Huckster not running, and Trump/The Grinch/Romney sapping each others bases.

MaxPower
05-08-2011, 05:52 PM
I think there is a reasonable chance that at least a couple of them won't run.

dude58677
05-08-2011, 06:13 PM
Romney is almost certainly going to run. He has lots of money, is viewed as "serious", and has media support. The way things are going now, he could probably win so long as he held on to his current lead and avoided talking about healthcare and abortion as much as possible. He might hold off this year if he gets exposed early on and loses a bunch of support, though.

Huckabee might run. Maybe. If he does, he will probably be the biggest drain to Paul, since many who would otherwise love Paul (especially in Iowa) feel obligated to vote for Huck due to his Christian credentials. I know for a fact that many Huckabee supporters like Paul quite a bit and would happily jump ship if he didn't run (it helps that out of the original class of '08, Huckster was one of the most respectful for Paul: Romney laughed at him, Giuliani got into red faced rants at him, McCain attacked him, but Huckabee generally avoided that. Then he stole a bunch of Ron's views, gave it a "mainstream" coat of paint, and went to town). If Huckabee runs, it will be a bit of a problem, especially in the South and Iowa.

Palin is more likely than Huck, but less likely than Romney. I think she is looking at her polling, Bachmann stealing her base, at her own status as a celebrity, and wondering if running would really be worthwhile. She probably could win the primary if she got lucky and tried hard, but winning the general would be impossible short of Obama eating a baby or the economy going to hell a month or two before election night (any earlier and Paul would probably seize the momentum and win). If she didn't run, we might get a small boost, but a lot of her supporters are complete idiots and unlikely to back Paul on their own initiative. On the other hand, she has a much higher chance of backing Paul outright over, say, Huck, and that would give him a HUGE bonus (even moreso than Huck not running, maybe).

Gingrich is the fourth "main" opposition guy, and I really don't see how he will manage anything. Seriously, no one cares much about him and he is getting his support from the "old cadre" of the 90s that recognize him and generally support "the party" over personality (Palin, Huck, Trump) or ideology (Paul, Huck, Theocrats). I honestly think he is a non-factor. If he doesn't run, that support will go every which way, and if he does he will probably sap a tiny bit from everyone. His support has been dwindling recently compared to Paul's rising, and he has few advantages to play for to gain extra support.

Trump is the fifth opponent, and I would say he is also irrelevant. He gained a huge boost from loudly claiming to be a birther, and now that Obama's birth certificate has been released his support is falling apart just as fast. He has no other concrete views to speak of, and no solid fanbase that would follow him through hell and back. Also, running would involve huge disclosures of his funds, and with the way his support has been going I don't think he will bother. Dunno where his support is going to go, but maybe he will be a sport and back Paul, which would be a minor bonus.


All in all, not much of a field. Victory is certainly closer than it was in 2008. At worst, it will be a huge long shot with all of the above running, which is better than in 08 (where the odds were, frankly, "nigh impossible"). At best, it will be practically a breeze with Palin backing Paul, Huckster not running, and Trump/The Grinch/Romney sapping each others bases.

They are not going to run unless they can beat Obama and that poll is not going well for them. It is going well for Ron Paul.:)

steve005
05-08-2011, 07:51 PM
but they are powerless unlike 2008.

why do you think this?

White Bear Lake
05-08-2011, 08:17 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpwilvHp0k4

One Last Battle!
05-08-2011, 09:05 PM
They are not going to run unless they can beat Obama and that poll is not going well for them. It is going well for Ron Paul.:)

Huckster and Romney both have decent chances of beating Obama, its just that Huck really enjoys getting fat from a nice job with Fox rather than running around on the campaign trail. He is already far behind in terms of grabbing decent campaign staff, and if he waits much longer he will never recover. Romney, meanwhile, it a persistent fellow, has an okay chance of victory (about as good as Huckabee, depending on the state), and happens to be the traditional next in line to be the Republican candidate. I would be very surprised if he didn't run.

Lets not kid ourselves. Things are great compared to the past, but Ron is still a long shot. Assuming nothing major happens and all the candidates try running, I would give him maybe a 5% chance of victory, with him probably pulling off third place with about 15% of the vote and a state caucus or two. We really need to put everything into it this time around, and hopefully Ron's campaign staff won't bumble around like idiots while the grassroots does all the heavy lifting. Our chances are certainly getting better, but we aren't out of the woods until we have actually managed a decent rise in polling and publicity.

realtonygoodwin
05-08-2011, 09:48 PM
I predict Romney, Paul, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Santorum, and maybe Bachmann will run.

dude58677
05-08-2011, 10:29 PM
why do you think this?

For the reasons I said.