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DjLoTi
10-26-2007, 04:22 PM
ok.. lets find out how delegates are delegated (lol) in each state (some states are winner takes all, some are %, w/e)

Then... lets add up all the states where RP looks like he's doing well.

Then.. lets see what kind of % he is pulling in, and find out which states need to be hit hard.

I'm doing this because NH only has 24 delegates, which is less then 1% of the total delegates.

AL - 48
AK - 29
AS - 9
AZ - 53
AR - 34
CA - 173
CO - 46
CT - 30
DE - 18
DC - 19
FL - 114
GA - 72
Guam - 9
HI - 20
ID - 32
IL - 70
IN - 57
IA - 40
KS - 39
KY - 45
LA - 47
ME - 21
MD - 37
MA - 43
MI - 60
MN - 41
MS - 38
MO - 58
MT - 25
NE - 33
NV - 34
NH - 24
NJ - 52
NM - 32
NY - 101
NC - 69
ND - 26
Northern Marinas - 9
OH - 88
OK - 41
OR - 30
PA - 74
Puerto Rico - 23 ( what??? tf??? )
RI - 20 (not as important as Puerto Rico .... )
SC - 47
SD - 27
TN - 55
TX - 140
UT - 36
VT - 14
Virgin Islands - 6
VA - 63
WA - 40
WV - 30
WI - 40
WY - 28
TOTAL = 2,515

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R-Alloc.phtml

OK, I think he'll do well in AL, AK, AZ, CO, DC, HI, ID, IL, MI, MO, NV, NH, NJ, PA, WA, and WY

I left out CA because I know for sure that's broken up. So assuming he wins ALL the delegates for these states, he'll have... 603 delegates, which is 24%
IL will be very tough, and I'm just saying PA cuz he's from there ( the support is pretty good out there though ), AK, HI, NH look for sure, those are really our for sure states. I put MO in there only because he's the first name on the ballot. :confused:

If Rudy wins TX, NY, and FL he's already got 365 delegates. Then if he wins IL, that'll be 435 vs. RP's 533 (assuming he wins all those states). If Rudy wins NJ, he'll have 487 and RP (if he doesn't win MO) will only have 475

What states do each candidate look good in?
FT looks good in TN, SC, GA
Mitt looks good in IA, MA and UT
Rudy looks good in FL and NY
RP looks good in HI, AK, NH

What are our battleground states? I think IA's a long shot. Lets break this down ppl... lets figure this out.

kylejack
10-26-2007, 04:24 PM
Did you cut delegates in half for the states that the GOP is punishing?

DjLoTi
10-26-2007, 04:25 PM
Did you cut delegates in half for the states that the GOP is punishing?

no .. only FL, or WY, NH, and IA too?

constituent
10-26-2007, 04:29 PM
rudy's not winning texas. maybe i underestimate the level of back room corruption that plays out amongst the corporate/political class.

i just can't imagine some new york yankee winning texas, by any stretch.

DjLoTi
10-26-2007, 04:31 PM
Who looks good in TX? Anybody know?

T206
10-26-2007, 04:33 PM
rudy's not winning texas. maybe i underestimate the level of back room corruption that plays out amongst the corporate/political class.

i just can't imagine some new york yankee winning texas, by any stretch.

He is rooting for the Red Sox now, didnt ya hear?

cmc
10-26-2007, 04:37 PM
You are right to think that Paul will do well in MO. Many moderate Republicans tired of neo-cons.

Also, it has two major cities bordering moderate states.

terlinguatx
10-26-2007, 04:41 PM
...

terlinguatx
10-26-2007, 04:48 PM
...

kylejack
10-26-2007, 04:49 PM
BTW how many superdelegates are there?
I forgot about the damned super-delegates. Ugh.

By the way, not all those states are winner take all. California, for example.

DjLoTi
10-26-2007, 04:52 PM
wtf are super delegates?

kylejack
10-26-2007, 04:53 PM
wtf are super delegates?

Governors, mayors, big party people, and all other sorts of nonsense. They can vote for whoever they want.

USPatriot36
10-26-2007, 05:49 PM
Governors, mayors, big party people, and all other sorts of nonsense. They can vote for whoever they want.

I don't think they can vote for whoever they want. In most states, I believe they are bound to vote the way the voters voted, at least for the first couple of ballots.

kylejack
10-26-2007, 05:53 PM
I don't think they can vote for whoever they want. In most states, I believe they are bound to vote the way the voters voted, at least for the first couple of ballots.

They're unpledged.

Bradley in DC
10-26-2007, 07:09 PM
wtf are super delegates?

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?p=72769#poststop

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?p=295373#poststop

Eric21ND
10-26-2007, 11:37 PM
How do you become a delegate in your state again?