View Full Version : GOP Lineup:: Done: Palin, Trump -- Maybe Done: Huckabee, Romney
doodle
04-30-2011, 02:59 PM
Conservative projection:
GOP Lineup:: Done: Palin, Trump -- Maybe Done: Huckabee, Romney
Realistic Projection:
GOP Lineup:: Done: Palin, Trump, Huckabee -- Maybe Done: Romney
That is my view, what is your projection?
So called "leading" GOP candidates seem to be choking on their own words running against a pretty incompetent President like Obama with a solid record of broken promises and glaring hypocrisy. Who would have thunk that even a severely bruised Obama could turn out to be such a formidable opponent for GOP.
KramerDSP
04-30-2011, 03:51 PM
Define Done in your OP. Does it mean "not running" or does it mean "no chance"?
doodle
04-30-2011, 03:59 PM
Done = Prospects of running a succesful 2012 Pesidential race campaign greatly dimisnhed or will diminsh in near future.
It's a forward looking statement, I see them exiting the race or running a very lackluster campaign with their support ahead depleting.
Romulus
04-30-2011, 04:01 PM
Yes.... If Ron stays the course, keeps looking 'conservative' while appealing to 'civil liberties' he got a good, good chance to garner some support...
the other clowns don't want to jump in or are hanging themselves..
RileyE104
04-30-2011, 04:17 PM
I highly doubt Palin will run. An endorsement from her and Jim DeMint would greatly help Ron's campaign. I know it seems unrealistic right now, but when the time comes I think they will both recognize that Ron is the only one running with views similar to theirs. Endorsements from Rand, Mike Lee, Justin Amash and maybe even others in Congress who might support Ron will also be crucial.
I also doubt that Huckabee or Trump will run.
Just a gut feeling...
That being said, Romney and Gingrich are Ron's only major obstacles IMO.
I have a feeling Gingrich wont run, so Romney is really the only problem.
A wild-card would be Mitch Daniels. Not sure if him running would be good or bad for us, seeing as how he came out the other day declaring himself a 'libertarian'.
Of course, there's still Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Gary Johnson, Jimmy McMillan, etc. etc.
I don't think any of them will be a threat to Ron Paul's campaign.
I think Ron has much of a better chance than most anyone is acknowledging.
doodle
04-30-2011, 04:28 PM
I highly doubt Palin will run. An endorsement from her and Jim DeMint would greatly help Ron's campaign. I know it seems unrealistic right now, but when the time comes I think they will both recognize that Ron is the only one running with views similar to theirs. Endorsements from Rand, Mike Lee, Justin Amash and maybe even others in Congress who might support Ron will also be crucial.
I also doubt that Huckabee or Trump will run.
Just a gut feeling...
That being said, Romney and Gingrich are Ron's only major obstacles IMO.
I have a feeling Gingrich wont run, so Romney is really the only problem.
A wild-card would be Mitch Daniels. Not sure if him running would be good or bad for us, seeing as how he came out the other day declaring himself a 'libertarian'.
Of course, there's still Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Gary Johnson, Jimmy McMillan, etc. etc.
I don't think any of them will be a threat to Ron Paul's campaign.
I think Ron has much of a better chance than most anyone is acknowledging.
Good analysis, I'm in cautious agreement with the conclusion also.
RP faces major challanges and a Ron Paul win would be a major coup, almost of the scale Obama's win was in 08. But stars could align in a way where Ron Paul can eek out a win in 2012. Few years before Obama win, few people could have imagined an Obama win but these are extraordinary times and people seem willing to try some radical changes.
KramerDSP
04-30-2011, 04:33 PM
You're all forgetting Petreaus. If I could bet money, I would bet money on Petreaus entering the race in late August/early September if Ron Paul wins or places second in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll and begins consistently polling at 15-20%.
doodle
04-30-2011, 04:33 PM
Yes.... If Ron stays the course, keeps looking 'conservative' while appealing to 'civil liberties' he got a good, good chance to garner some support...
the other clowns don't want to jump in or are hanging themselves..
Good point. RP will also have to not tilt too much to the Right during primary even thought it seems almost easier for Ron Paul to defeat Obama in the general than win a GOP Primary.
Ron Paul will also need to raise a lot of money to be a credible threat to Obama.
You're all forgetting Petreaus. If I could bet money, I would bet money on Petreaus entering the race in late August/early September if Ron Paul wins or places second in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll and begins consistently polling at 15-20%.
You're forgetting it's 2012, even the so called "good war" is now unpopular among majority. His days of running for POTUS are behind him.
anaconda
04-30-2011, 04:37 PM
You're all forgetting Petreaus. If I could bet money, I would bet money on Petreaus entering the race in late August/early September if Ron Paul wins or places second in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll and begins consistently polling at 15-20%.
I don't think military leaders are going to be widely popular this time. That was for popular wars like WWII with Eisenhower.
RileyE104
04-30-2011, 04:42 PM
You're all forgetting Petreaus. If I could bet money, I would bet money on Petreaus entering the race in late August/early September if Ron Paul wins or places second in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll and begins consistently polling at 15-20%.
I disagree...
General Petraeus is not planning to run for President in 2012. He has repeatedly stated that he feels very privileged to have been able to serve our country in uniform and that he would like to continue to do so as long as those above him want him to serve.
When he retires, he has no intention of seeking political office.
In response to questions about presidential aspirations, General Petraeus has often asked questioners to recall General Sherman’s response to similar queries in the late 1800s. Sherman said, “If nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve.” That remains General Petraeus' response as well.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0309/No_Petraeus_2012.html
Ricky201
04-30-2011, 04:44 PM
You're all forgetting Petreaus. If I could bet money, I would bet money on Petreaus entering the race in late August/early September if Ron Paul wins or places second in the Ames Iowa Straw Poll and begins consistently polling at 15-20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012
General David Petraeus of New York: Responding to continued speculation has said: "I thought I'd said no about as many ways as I could. I really do mean no... I've tried Shermanesque responses... I've tried quoting the country song, 'What Part of No Don't You Understand?'... I feel very privileged to be able to serve our country. I'm honored to continue to do that as long as I can contribute, but I will not, ever, run for political office, I can assure you. And again, we have said that repeatedly and I'm hoping that people realize at a certain point you say it so many times that you could never flip, and start your career by flip-flopping into it."
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So far it's looking doubtful.
KramerDSP
04-30-2011, 04:48 PM
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012
General David Petraeus of New York: Responding to continued speculation has said: "I thought I'd said no about as many ways as I could. I really do mean no... I've tried Shermanesque responses... I've tried quoting the country song, 'What Part of No Don't You Understand?'... I feel very privileged to be able to serve our country. I'm honored to continue to do that as long as I can contribute, but I will not, ever, run for political office, I can assure you. And again, we have said that repeatedly and I'm hoping that people realize at a certain point you say it so many times that you could never flip, and start your career by flip-flopping into it."
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So far it's looking doubtful.
Well, OK, I guess I feel a little better. But Chris Christie is saying the exact same thing as well. And I have no doubt that if that it looks like Ron is riding a wave of momentum (he already is, but an even greater crest) and starts polling at 20% nationally, we're going to see Chris Christie-Paul Ryan or Chris Christie-Marco Rubio announce as a ticket and do everything they can to derail Ron's momentum.
KramerDSP
04-30-2011, 04:53 PM
Here's my half cent, accounting for inflation.
WILL NOT RUN:
Sarah Palin
Newt Gingrich
WILL NOT RUN IN THE GOP/POSSIBLE THIRD PARTY RUN:
Donald Trump
WILL PROBABLY RUN:
Mike Huckabee
WAITING IN THE WINGS:
Chris Christie/Paul Ryan
Chris Christie/Marco Rubio
The GOP's history for so long has been that if you lose the nomination the first time you run, you are usually selected as the GOP nominee the second time around. So it seems like the BIG THREE are Romney, Huckabee and Paul. Romney always gets support peeled off the more visible he is. Mike Huckabee is our biggest threat. If we overcome Mike Huckabee and win the Ames Iowa Straw Poll or finish a very close Second (thanks to GJ supporters), I believe Chris Christie is brought out as the GOP's Mariano Rivera to try and end Paul before it's too late.
FreedomProsperityPeace
04-30-2011, 04:57 PM
Palin: I doubted she would run for a while now.
Huckabee: I still see a possibility of him jumping in later. His numbers are too good not to give it serious thought, and he won Iowa last time around. With what he probably sees as a weak field, he'll be tempted.
Trump: I never saw him as a serious candidate. With all his negatives, with the ramping up of the media attacks (Fox even seems to be throwing him under the bus now) and investigation into his life, and with Hollywood -- his bread and butter -- turning on him, I think he will cut his losses.
Romney: I am positive he will run. He's just too egotistical not to. He sees himself as president. Even with that "hang Obama" gaffe, he's still in. I'm waiting for the liberal networks to hop on that.
Bachmann: she's a wild card, but I'm leaning towards her staying out. She doesn't have real strong numbers.
sailingaway
04-30-2011, 04:58 PM
Currently, Huckabee is the frontrunner, as I understand it.
doodle
04-30-2011, 05:03 PM
WAITING IN THE WINGS:
Chris Christie/Paul Ryan
Chris Christie/Marco Rubio
This discussion was for Presidential hopefuls primarily, but do you listen to neoconservative Bill Kristol on TV often by any chance? :)
Those two names won't fly as national level candidates IMO, atmosphere in America is too anti-neocon at present.
Feeding the Abscess
04-30-2011, 05:06 PM
Petraeus is the new head of the CIA, he's not running.
KramerDSP
04-30-2011, 05:11 PM
This discussion was for Presidential hopefuls primarily, but do you listen to neoconservative Bill Kristol on TV often by any chance? :)
Those two names won't fly as national level candidates IMO, atmosphere in America is too anti-neocon at present.
I don't listen to Kristol. I'm Deaf. :)
I did see Kristol floating Rubio and Ryan. Paul Ryan is being compared to Goldwater, while many tea partiers still believe Marco Rubio is the real deal. Is there anyone here who agrees with me that Chris Christie paired with one of those two is the ace in the hole the GOP is waiting to use if RP gains too much momentum? I believe the GOP does NOT want to win the Presidency in 2012 and while the country is anti-neocon right now, the general perception is that the Ryan/Rubio/Christie are not neocons.
There was an event in St. Augustine, FL, and people were fawning over Rubio, begging him to at least consider the Vice-Presidency if not the Presidency outright.
doodle
04-30-2011, 05:27 PM
I don't listen to Kristol. I'm Deaf. :)
I did see Kristol floating Rubio and Ryan. Paul Ryan is being compared to Goldwater, while many tea partiers still believe Marco Rubio is the real deal. Is there anyone here who agrees with me that Chris Christie paired with one of those two is the ace in the hole the GOP is waiting to use if RP gains too much momentum? I believe the GOP does NOT want to win the Presidency in 2012 and while the country is anti-neocon right now, the general perception is that the Ryan/Rubio/Christie are not neocons.
There was an event in St. Augustine, FL, and people were fawning over Rubio, begging him to at least consider the Vice-Presidency if not the Presidency outright.
Sorry, I would have worded it differently if I had known :)
That part of Florida is a localized constituency with strong pro Israel demographic, Rubio angled for their support and was AIPAC lobby funded and supported pro-war wing TP candidate, so that is not surprising. Christie is not running for 2012 and besides they would be an odd couple.
Rubio maybe Bill Kristol/Braman/AIPAC's favorite Pres candidate, but not of America at large.
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2010/11/guess-whos-meeting-marco-rubio-in-israel.html#ixzz1L3Fcno46
Dustancostine
04-30-2011, 05:42 PM
The one I worry about the most is Rick Perry, Gov. of Texas. He is loved by the social conservatives and claims to be fiscally responsible and has a lot of stats on Texas job production to try and use a crediblity. And he is probably not as hated around the country as he is in the state. And he has better hair than Romney, and is more charismatic than Huckabee.
If Huck falls out, watch out for Rick to run.
FreedomProsperityPeace
04-30-2011, 05:53 PM
Rick Perry... is probably not as hated around the country as he is in the state.I don't know about that. :p He's pretty notorious nationally for possibly executing an innocent man and quashing the investigation. Plus, you just get a very GW Bush vibe off him.
low preference guy
04-30-2011, 05:55 PM
My prediction: Huckabee and Palin won't run. Romney will run but will not win. Trump will not run as a Republican but might run as an independent.
Ron Paul will be a first-tier candidate, if not the winner.
doodle
05-03-2011, 12:02 PM
My prediction: Huckabee and Palin won't run. Romney will run but will not win. Trump will not run as a Republican but might run as an independent.
Ron Paul will be a first-tier candidate, if not the winner.
Sounds like a reasonable assessment.
Aratus
05-03-2011, 12:17 PM
i think the THURSDAY S.C GOP debate
is going to set the tone for the election.
i think both mitt romney and newt gingrich
are going to be badly hurt down the road
in terms of their decision not to be part
of it. i think RON PAUL writes the convention
platform planks and could be the nominee!
doodle
05-13-2011, 03:07 PM
Newt is a non starter.
Mitt probably will last a while but will fade later imo.
Palin, Trump, Huck are already toast.
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