View Full Version : PPP - Don't Laugh At Paul
KramerDSP
04-25-2011, 09:31 PM
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/dont-laugh-at-paul.html
Ron Paul's not as big of a joke as people think.
Do I think he has a serious chance at the Republican nomination? Not really. But I think he could play a much bigger role in the race than people might expect. Consider some of these recent poll numbers:
-In Iowa Paul's net favorability with GOP voters is +38 at 55/17. The only Republican more popular with the base than that in the state is Mike Huckabee. Paul's numbers trump Tim Pawlenty (+32), Mitt Romney (+30), Sarah Palin (+29), and Newt Gingrich (+21) as well as a cadre of other less well known candidates. Paul has part of the same problem Palin showed in her polling earlier in the year- a disconnect between the extent to which people like him and their willingness to spend their vote on him- but those are still some pretty good numbers.
-On our 'main' ballot test in Iowa Paul gets 6%, tying Pawlenty and slightly edging Michele Bachmann's 5%. In a field without Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, and Sarah Palin- something entirely plausible- Paul gets 16%, putting him in third place in the state.
-It's a similar story for Paul in New Hampshire. His favorability there is +32 at 53/21, putting him behind only Romney. He does better than Pawlenty's +20, Huckabee's +12, Palin's +12, and Gingrich's +9,
-Paul gets 9% on our 'main' ballot test in New Hampshire, besting Palin's 7%, Pawlenty's 4%, and Bachmann's 3%. Paul gets all the way up to 18% in a Huckabee/Palin/Trumpless field there, finishing second only to Romney.
There's been endless jabber today about the impact of Haley Barbour not running but I honestly think in the long haul Paul will pick up more support than Barbour ever would have and that he will pick up a lot more support than many of the other folks sucking up the media air as well. He probably won't win the nomination but with a weak field that the Republican base is unenthused about I bet he'll be a much bigger player this time around than he was in 2008.
GunnyFreedom
04-25-2011, 09:35 PM
lol! high praise indeed from PPP
JoshLowry
04-25-2011, 09:37 PM
Ron Paul 2012 - Putting naysayers to bed
Kotin
04-25-2011, 09:53 PM
Yeah.. Guess I better support Gary Johnson.. Oh wait..
Ron Paul 2012 is on.
Do I think he has a serious chance at the Republican nomination? Not really.
In other words:
Ron Paul makes 100% sense. Instead of fighting, lets continue the unelectable chant (despite some poll results claiming that he would beat Obama).
Legend1104
04-25-2011, 10:02 PM
MMUUUHHHHAAAA!!! Everything is going according to plan.
UtahApocalypse
04-25-2011, 10:04 PM
If we are IN the race this go round and lose I will accept it. I just don't want them to decide that we can't be in the race.
nate895
04-25-2011, 10:05 PM
What does this tell you? At this point, the only thing stopping Ron Paul from being in second place right now is some propaganda about some other supposedly "conservative" hack being more electable. Burn the vale of "electability" and supposed "conservatism" of the other candidates and Ron Paul is well-positioned to come out number one in IA, and quite possibly NH, NV, and SC. I seriously think there is a possibility of winning all four, which would basically secure Paul the nomination.
Legend1104
04-25-2011, 10:07 PM
without Trump or Huckabee, I think he has an excellent shot, and the Huck thing is only based on the numbers right now. He could very easily fall (plus I don't think he will run and risk losing that money).
Legend1104
04-25-2011, 10:09 PM
Another thing, I think if Trump does run, he may well become the Ron Paul of 2012. The major media bashing him and giving him a hard time. That might give Ron Paul a chance to gain some steam without being beaten down by the media so much.
nate895
04-25-2011, 10:13 PM
Another thing, I think if Trump does run, he may well become the Ron Paul of 2012. The major media bashing him and giving him a hard time. That might give Ron Paul a chance to gain some steam without being beaten down by the media so much.
Another thing is that whereas Ron Paul is intelligent and can hold off the media attacks, Trump is a clown.
HOLLYWOOD
04-25-2011, 10:15 PM
http://www.groceryoutlet.com/Libraries/Subpage_Images/WOW.sflb.ashx
KramerDSP
04-25-2011, 10:17 PM
To me, the moral of the PPP blurb is that RP must go ALL-IN for the Iowa Straw Poll. If he wins the Iowa Straw Poll or finishes a respectable second, he can win Iowa. If he can win Iowa, he can win NH. Then it's over, baby. Check out the Doug Wead articles talking about the "All-In for Iowa" strategy.
GunnyFreedom
04-25-2011, 10:18 PM
Another thing, I think if Trump does run, he may well become the Ron Paul of 2012. The major media bashing him and giving him a hard time. That might give Ron Paul a chance to gain some steam without being beaten down by the media so much.
LOL @ turning the Donald into a "shiny-fuzzy cat toy" that we get shake at the media cats whenever we want the grownups to pay attention to something. :D
Matt Collins
04-25-2011, 10:35 PM
Backhanded compliment that was.
Matt Collins
04-25-2011, 10:36 PM
What does this tell you? At this point, the only thing stopping Ron Paul from being in second place right now is some propaganda about some other supposedly "conservative" hack being more electable. Burn the vale of "electability" and supposed "conservatism" of the other candidates and Ron Paul is well-positioned to come out number one in IA, and quite possibly NH, NV, and SC. I seriously think there is a possibility of winning all four, which would basically secure Paul the nomination.
Both Huck and Trump will lose if their history is actually communicated to the Republican electorate.
HarryBrowneLives
04-25-2011, 10:41 PM
Both Huck and Trump will lose if their history is actually communicated to the Republican electorate.
Might be OUR job???;)
Dreamofunity
04-25-2011, 10:41 PM
Awesome.
FSP-Rebel
04-25-2011, 10:45 PM
Ron Paul 2012 - Putting naysayers to bed
Yep, sweet dreams.
One Last Battle!
04-25-2011, 10:45 PM
In other words:
Ron Paul makes 100% sense. Instead of fighting, lets continue the unelectable chant (despite some poll results claiming that he would beat Obama).
He kind of has a point, though. The media isn't willing to push him as "serious" like they will for, say, Huckster or Romney, therefore a lot of people who view him as "favourable" will compromise to stop the guy they hate from winning by backing the "stronger" guy. Until it becomes clear that that isn't the case, he can't break out as "serious" and won't get the people who like him but aren't dedicated.
The way things are now, Ron is a long shot. Much better than in 2008 (back then, the odds were nigh impossible), but still long. Winning is not going to be easy; we will have to give it everything we have. But if we win Iowa and/or New Hampshire, we will have a very good shot at victory overall.
torchbearer
04-25-2011, 10:45 PM
Might be OUR job???;)
If you can get a copy of trump's book, the america we deserve (jan 2000), he explains that he supports universal health care.
i'm looking for a copy to make pamphlets to hand out at his events.
Matt Collins
04-25-2011, 10:50 PM
Yeah.. Guess I better support Gary Johnson.. Oh wait..
Ron Paul 2012 is on.
Dude, There is no need to bash GJ. If he were running for Senate we'd probably all be supporting him. He is for the most part one of us. Don't forget Ron endorsed him, and he endorsed Ron.
A civil war within the liberty movement is unnecessary and unproductive.
nate895
04-25-2011, 10:52 PM
Both Huck and Trump will lose if their history is actually communicated to the Republican electorate.
My point exactly. You shouldn't forget about Romney either.
HarryBrowneLives
04-25-2011, 11:36 PM
If you can get a copy of trump's book, the america we deserve (jan 2000), he explains that he supports universal health care.
i'm looking for a copy to make pamphlets to hand out at his events.
I got a better idea Torchy:D
HarryBrowneLives
04-25-2011, 11:41 PM
Trump's got the money, but we've got the numbers. This won't be RP '08, but rather Rand Paul 2.0 I hope.
TomtheTinker
04-25-2011, 11:50 PM
A civil war within the liberty movement is unnecessary and unproductive.
^!^!
While we all have opinions on the whole 2 candidates issue..the danger of burning bridges is much more destructive to our cause than the danger of having 2 horses in the race. so IMO we should all just relax and focus on the task at hand. Ron Paul 2012
GunnyFreedom
04-25-2011, 11:55 PM
PPP was the first org to call me an actual contender.
Matt Collins
04-25-2011, 11:59 PM
PPP was the first org to call me an actual contender.
Well they were obviously wrong :-P
SimpleName
04-26-2011, 01:58 AM
Another thing, I think if Trump does run, he may well become the Ron Paul of 2012. The major media bashing him and giving him a hard time. That might give Ron Paul a chance to gain some steam without being beaten down by the media so much.
Interesting idea. Trump keeps saying silly out-there crap, leaving Ron looking VERY sane and reasonable. Could work
Aratus
04-26-2011, 10:46 AM
100,ooo thanx PPP! makes my day!
a convention that goes more than
THREE BALLOTs lets us all write out
the REPUBLICAN PARTY PLATFORM!
randomname
04-26-2011, 12:31 PM
55/17 favorability in Iowa is fantastic
nate895
04-26-2011, 01:01 PM
55/17 favorability in Iowa is fantastic
While I couldn't find numbers for Iowa, it is especially fantastic when compared to his '08 numbers in NH:
28%-somewhat unfavorable
29%-strongly unfavorable
11%-strongly favorable
29%-somewhat favorable
So, we went from 40/57 in 2008 (link, p.2 of 7 (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#NHREP)), to 53/21 in NH in 2012 (link (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_0405513.pdf)). That's an unprecedented turnaround
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