wgadget
10-25-2007, 09:56 PM
Talking on the phone to a friend of mine this morning, we both agreed that every candidate in the race has a handicapping opponent. Let’s go down the list of the handicappers:
1.
Ron Pauli: The Ron Paul factor is vastly underestimated. Too frequently Ron Paul seems easily dismissed as a cracker jack. But there are a couple things Ron Paul has that Rudy doesn’t: credence with the Anti-war faction of the party, really dedicated supporters and tons of money to blow on one state (New Hampshire.)
Ron Paul has a huge amount of money- more than we think. Don’t believe me? Look here. Paul has a projected Q4 goal of 7.7 million and so far is on track to make it or at least come close. With 5 million COH he could enter the primaries with 10 COH or more. Ron Paul can take a huge chunk out of Rudy and McCain. No problem. If Ron gains steam in NH, he will take it with him to place like Florida, Michigan, California and other states.
Believe it or not, Paul has a following amongst social conservatives! It was a mind blower to me when I found this out. The other day I was talking to a friend who is key player in Illinois grassroots and asked her who she thought leaders were getting behind. She said that a good portion think there is a guy who has a good shot. I asked Romney or Huckabee? She said nope, Ron Paul. I laughed out loud, but then it dawned on me, it could happen. Ron Paul is solidly pro-life. Ron Paul also holds a great view on marriage- why the heck is government doing it?
I am not ready to say Paul can run away with the nomination, or even the social conservative vote- actually part of me wonders if my state is just a quirk. I am prepared to say, Ron Paul has the money to provide some disappointing days for Rudy and McCain amongst there moderate followers, especially in New Hampshire.
What will Rudy have to do keep Paul down? Something he is already doing: make him out to be a quack, not taken seriously. Ron Paul’s followers are helping with that already, but it won’t be enough. Rudy will need a change of focus in his quack tagging. I actually don’t think Rudy should focus Paul’s misunderstanding of foreign threats. With the pro-war/pro-GWOT he has already beat Paul. The ones he is in danger of losing are the ones he will be knocking with that argument. They like Rudy, because they see him as a libertarian- not his GWOT/9-11 credentials. Ron Paul give Rudy’s less-than-enthusiastic –on-the-war supporters a home. Rudy should be more subtle and insinuating with Paul’s zaniness. Let the people reach the conclusion with Paul’s overheated comments that Paul is unfit, not for idealogical reasons, but for pure insanity.
1.
Ron Pauli: The Ron Paul factor is vastly underestimated. Too frequently Ron Paul seems easily dismissed as a cracker jack. But there are a couple things Ron Paul has that Rudy doesn’t: credence with the Anti-war faction of the party, really dedicated supporters and tons of money to blow on one state (New Hampshire.)
Ron Paul has a huge amount of money- more than we think. Don’t believe me? Look here. Paul has a projected Q4 goal of 7.7 million and so far is on track to make it or at least come close. With 5 million COH he could enter the primaries with 10 COH or more. Ron Paul can take a huge chunk out of Rudy and McCain. No problem. If Ron gains steam in NH, he will take it with him to place like Florida, Michigan, California and other states.
Believe it or not, Paul has a following amongst social conservatives! It was a mind blower to me when I found this out. The other day I was talking to a friend who is key player in Illinois grassroots and asked her who she thought leaders were getting behind. She said that a good portion think there is a guy who has a good shot. I asked Romney or Huckabee? She said nope, Ron Paul. I laughed out loud, but then it dawned on me, it could happen. Ron Paul is solidly pro-life. Ron Paul also holds a great view on marriage- why the heck is government doing it?
I am not ready to say Paul can run away with the nomination, or even the social conservative vote- actually part of me wonders if my state is just a quirk. I am prepared to say, Ron Paul has the money to provide some disappointing days for Rudy and McCain amongst there moderate followers, especially in New Hampshire.
What will Rudy have to do keep Paul down? Something he is already doing: make him out to be a quack, not taken seriously. Ron Paul’s followers are helping with that already, but it won’t be enough. Rudy will need a change of focus in his quack tagging. I actually don’t think Rudy should focus Paul’s misunderstanding of foreign threats. With the pro-war/pro-GWOT he has already beat Paul. The ones he is in danger of losing are the ones he will be knocking with that argument. They like Rudy, because they see him as a libertarian- not his GWOT/9-11 credentials. Ron Paul give Rudy’s less-than-enthusiastic –on-the-war supporters a home. Rudy should be more subtle and insinuating with Paul’s zaniness. Let the people reach the conclusion with Paul’s overheated comments that Paul is unfit, not for idealogical reasons, but for pure insanity.