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View Full Version : Ron Paul Lacking in Mid- and Southwestern New Hampshire




skiingff
10-25-2007, 09:32 PM
http://www.operationnh.com/nhmap.JPG

The above is a regional map of New Hampshire (http://www.newhampshirerealestatehome.com/images/new_hampshire_regions_map.gif), using data extracted from the latest statewide poll (http://www.anselm.edu/NR/rdonlyres/B9C20574-57F4-47E9-8207-42252C4FA767/11912/saintanselmcollegepoll102507data.pdf).

The mean is 7% in the poll.

In the Hanover area, Ron Paul is only polling 5% (2 points below the mean). This is his weakest area of the state, along with the Keene area, where he's at 6%.

In the Laconia area, Ron Paul is polling 11% (4 points above the mean).

In the remainder of the state, Paul is polling at the mean (7%).

This concerns me, how in the Lakes Region (Laconia area) Paul is doing exceedingly well, but directly to the west he is doing poorly. The Hanover/Lebanon area is of course the home of the Ivy League Dartmouth College, and is a wealthy area with plenty of influence.

Maybe we need to run some newspaper ads in the Valley News and The Dartmouth, which both cover the Hanover area (the former being a general newspaper and the latter a popular college newspaper), and the Keene Sentinel. The ads are relatively cheap (~$500 per ad) and may help shape the perception of Dr. Paul in these key areas.

brumans
10-25-2007, 09:36 PM
Good info.. we should apply this to our grassroots activity.

terlinguatx
10-25-2007, 09:36 PM
...

Ozwest
10-25-2007, 09:39 PM
Good idea Skiingff, as many resources as possible need to go towards New Hampshire. Do you, or does anyone else have any ideas on what type of ad to run?

alien
10-25-2007, 09:39 PM
How exactly do these polls work? Do they really represent all the Dr. Paul supporters?

stevedasbach
10-25-2007, 09:42 PM
The sample of Paul votes in the poll is less than 100. Be careful drawing conclusions - the sample size is very small.

Ozwest
10-25-2007, 09:48 PM
Targetting the Hanover/Lebanon area in particular, makes sense. If this a wealthy area, gaining support in their could result in large donations to the National campaign.

skiingff
10-25-2007, 09:51 PM
The sample of Paul votes in the poll is less than 100. Be careful drawing conclusions - the sample size is very small.

The sample size was 600 Republican voters; 1,500 overall. Divide that into 6 regions, and they polled an average of 100 people per region. Out of those 100 people per region, the respective percentage that picked Ron Paul range from 5-11% with a MoE of +/- 4.5%.

Yes, it's not the best, but it's as good of a snapshot as we're going to get. ItsTime or w/e his name is, has long expressed concern about Paul's position in the Hanover area... this poll supplements that concern. Maybe something we should consider.

alien
10-25-2007, 10:15 PM
Do you think is because not many know about him there or that they don't like him?

Anti Federalist
10-25-2007, 10:15 PM
Happy to report that I'm right under the second 1 in eleven on that map.

Here's what we have to deal with, the SW area of the state is the most populated. With Massholes (sorry, had to do it) from over the border mostly.

Appeal to them with an anti-war message, as they are more "liberal" than most.

Appeal to those along the seacoast with the same.

My area is a hodgepodge of all areas, so the general message of RP and freedom works best.

The northern counties, Coos in particular, is sparsely populated and rural north woods mostly.

Use a more "conservative" message there, especially hitting on trade, (lost another 300 jobs to outsourcing at a pulp mill just yesterday) immigration and guns.

me3
10-25-2007, 10:21 PM
The sample of Paul votes in the poll is less than 100. Be careful drawing conclusions - the sample size is very small.
Doesn't Dr. Paul have an office in NH? They might have some more data to draw on.

literatim
10-25-2007, 10:33 PM
For those PACs doing TV advertisements, I think WMUR will always be a good idea due to the large base it reaches throughout New Hampshire.