Which early states are we most likely to win?

[The Dark Knight]

so I was thinking today in the shower, which states must Ron Paul win? One state popped into my mind as a must win for us. The Nevada Caucus.
You see, out of the first four (Iowa, NH, Nevada and South Carolina) Nevada is the place that we have the best chance of winning.
Iowa is also a possibility if these two things happen (1) Mike Huckabee does not run and (2) We win the Ames straw poll and awaken a sleeping giant.
New Hampshire is less likely a win for us because its a primary instead of a caucus and Mttens has good organization here. We will have to count on the free state project here if we do have any hope at all.
Nevada is our best shot at winning. here is why. There will probably be two Mormons running this time in a heavily populated Mormon state. If you know any Mormons at all, convince them to vote for huntsman(if they don't vote for Ron Paul of course) because a vote for Huntsman is basically a vote for Ron Paul. (Finally these weasel tactics used by the establishment for years might work for us) From what I understand we also have Ron Paul supporters in some high positions in the Nevada Republican party in case they try to screw us over like last time.
South Carolina is also a huge state but we need to win either in Iowa or Nevada to get some momentum for South Carolina. Jack Hunter can rally the troops here over the radio, but we need more feet on the ground here.
Basically we MUST WIN in Iowa or Nevada (preferable both) to have a shot at moving on to the other states. We can do this. A Caucus is better for us because a Caucus system benefits the more active supporters of a candidate. We need to go all in for the Iowa and Nevada Caucuses. Get involved at the precinct level if you live in these key states.

[Matt Collins]

NV

[Badger Paul]

Nevada and New Hampshire and I'm afraid South Carolina

[The Dark Knight]

I think we have a better chance at winning a caucus in Iowa than a primary in New Hampshire

[sailingaway]

NV.

[trey4sports]

We really need a splash in Iowa IMHO

Iowa is winnable

[steph3n]

sorry to be a downer, but fantasyland.
I am here to instill a serious doubt, now get to work to make me wrong :D

[DXDoug]

sorry to be a downer, but fantasyland.
I am here to instill a serious doubt, now get to work to make me wrong :D

Good point.

ALSO i dont see why any one isnt stressing the importance of these wins!!

IF Ron Paul doesnt make a good showing in the early states people will assume HE doesnt have any one supporting him and the later States wont have people PUMPED to vote for him. We Need to win atleast 3-1 of these states!! seriously. IF people SEE THAT he has won 3-1 and there elections are coming up they will think damn Well Ron Paul has a chance and maybe us repubs/indy/dems can join behind ron paul to take down obama. and the 2 party system.

SOO... ^^^^^ seriously seriously hope we can get on top of these early states...
WE need to RIDE them HARD!

[DXDoug]

no one else? even intrested?

[GunnyFreedom]

In 2008 I thought NH was our best bet, but then I watched exit-polling interviews where people said they voted for john McCain because they were against the wars. At that point I decided that it was all a crap-shoot and relies entirely on overcoming native stupidity. Thus i believe we have an equal chance in ANY early State, depending pretty much entirely on our ability to leverage consumer politics on any given population.

Therefore, I would say our best chance is in any state where we can activate the biggest network, and actually cause that network to work effectively (the herding of cats dilemma) towards enacting consumer oriented politics.

[Eric21ND]

It's so vital that we win an early state to dispel the media myth that Ron can't win. If we win just one state it will be a total game changer. I believe we can compete in every state, anything can happen. I urge everyone not in one of the 4 early primary states to do most of their campaigning in one of the early states. If you live out west make time to go into Nevada, all California supporters should flood Nevada as well as the states bordering it. Midwest supporters should flood Iowa (I know I plan on being there). Supporters out east can either do New Hampshire if you're near around New England and southern supporters should flock into South Carolina. If every gave at least 50% of their time in an early state I think we could pull this off.

[Matt Collins]

McCain camped out in NH and shook every hand at least 5 times which is what it takes to win NH.

[Razmear]

If Huckabee stays out, we have a fair chance in SC.
Romney won't do well down here.

[amonasro]

We won NV in 2008, remember?

The GOP leadership walked out of the convention.

[Chowder]

Then we'll take Nevada by storm because we're sick of the wars and really sick of illegal immigration.

[acptulsa]

What Gunny said: Our crystal balls are cloudy. What Eric said: We don't need to be picking and choosing. That's the beauty of a grassroots effort--there's grassroots all across this land.

Leave no stone unturned.

[Eric21ND]

McCain camped out in NH and shook every hand at least 5 times which is what it takes to win NH.
Well the campaign should buy a fully decked out bus for Ron to go around the state in. Just leave the bus up there so when Ron is in NH he can get around easy and in style. I think that alone would garner media attention.

[nate895]

I am going to be insanely ambitious and say that we need to try to win them all. However, here is the order of the most likely, I think, for us to win:


Nevada
Iowa
New Hampshire
South Carolina


However, our order of priority should be:


Iowa
South Carolina
New Hampshire
Nevada


The reason I put Nevada at the bottom is because it is the least influential of the four states and we also have a good likelihood of pulling it off from momentum alone if we manage to win either Iowa or New Hampshire. I put Iowa at the top because it is fairly easily (not that it would be easy, but comparatively so) winnable given that it's a caucus, and yet Paul wouldn't be able to win off of groundswell alone. Next is South Carolina. Why SC and not NH? Because SC has a lot better track record of picking the winner in the GOP primary and it will show that the conservative base is behind Ron Paul even more powerfully than Iowa, which would show the conservative activists are behind him.

[rp08orbust]

If Ron cannot win the Ames straw poll, he cannot win the IA caucus. If he cannot win the IA caucus, he cannot win the much tougher NH or SC primaries. If he cannot win an early state, he cannot win the nomination.

Ergo, all out in IA from now until the Ames straw poll.

It's a shame that the last four months have been wasted on testing the waters when a proper Ron Paul presidential campaign could have been shaking every hand in Iowa fives times by now.

[tangent4ronpaul]

Therefore, I would say our best chance is in any state where we can activate the biggest network, and actually cause that network to work effectively (the herding of cats dilemma) towards enacting consumer oriented politics.

Big Cheshire Cat GRIN! :D

Working on something here...

[The Dark Knight]

If Ron cannot win the Ames straw poll, he cannot win the IA caucus. If he cannot win the IA caucus, he cannot win the much tougher NH or SC primaries. If he cannot win an early state, he cannot win the nomination.

Ergo, all out in IA from now until the Ames straw poll.

It's a shame that the last four months have been wasted on testing the waters when a proper Ron Paul presidential campaign could have been shaking every hand in Iowa fives times by now.

Exactly right, Its all about the Ames Straw poll. We don't win Ames, we don't win Iowa. Iowa must be the focus.
If we dont win in Iowa or NH, Nevada will be our last stand. But it all starts with Ames. I think we all agree that if we don't win 1 of the 4 early states its going to be nearly impossible to win the nomination

[libertybrewcity]

Caucus states (Louisiana, Washington)...Iowa if Huckabee isn't running and RP will do well in other bible belt states...small mainly Western states...Montana, Alaska, Wyoming Convention...Nevada...The problem is large states, especially the ones that go first like FLORIDA. We can win a large bucket full of small states, but that is not enough to win the majority of delegates (Florida, California, Pennsylvania, Texas)...We have some good things going for us as well as some bad things. I think this is possible, but it all starts with Iowa and NH. Every vote counts this time because the winner takes all strategy has been discontinued. We can win by going door to door and donating money. Let's do this! Get involved in your local party THIS YEAR because next year will be too late. Register early and tell your friends. Become a precinct captain and vote for RP friendly delegates to the state and local conventions.

[Eric21ND]

If Ron cannot win the Ames straw poll, he cannot win the IA caucus. If he cannot win the IA caucus, he cannot win the much tougher NH or SC primaries. If he cannot win an early state, he cannot win the nomination.

Ergo, all out in IA from now until the Ames straw poll.

It's a shame that the last four months have been wasted on testing the waters when a proper Ron Paul presidential campaign could have been shaking every hand in Iowa fives times by now.
This +1000

All supporters should consider spending their energy and donation dollars in an early state. Sure I'm going to do the local thing and handout stuff, but by the time its my state caucus the race will essentially be decided for Ron Paul. Iowa is my priority.

[randolphfuller]

Isn't Haley B arbour favored in S. Carolina?

[Billay]

None.

[Sola_Fide]

None.

Troll?

[Mallory]

I feel like this largely depends on whether or not Huck runs - as has been mentioned, Ron can pick up a lot of the socons who would have voted for Huck (he's got the pro-life views, "get government out so it won't interfere with family" views, pro-homeschooling etc).

What are your views on Huck - running, yes, no? I've heard very mixed things.

Also, this Santorum guy.....he has ultra-right-wing social views to the point of fascism (big government conservatism at least), but he might try to say he's the moral candidate or something the way Huck did in 08.

[thehighwaymanq]

Iowa is SO important!

Help out with Iowa:

Iowa "Liberty House" : http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?288006-Renting-a-house-in-Iowa-for-a-grassroots-base-of-operations

Straw Poll: http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?219074-2011-Iowa-Straw-Poll-Preparations

[Billay]

Troll?

Please explain how I'm a troll? I'll bet Paul doesn't win a single Republican primary and before the whole board jumps on me I love Ron Paul, however the Republicans don't and they don't care about facts. Thats why Trump, Romney, Huckabee all poll very well. If I had to guess I'd say his ceiling in Iowa is 2nd at best, 3rd New Hampshire, 4th or 5th South Carolina. It's too bad small states like North Dakota, Maine, etc... aren't the first ones because he'd have a very good shot at winning those however when those stats have their race the election is already decided.

[Eric21ND]

I feel like this largely depends on whether or not Huck runs - as has been mentioned, Ron can pick up a lot of the socons who would have voted for Huck (he's got the pro-life views, "get government out so it won't interfere with family" views, pro-homeschooling etc).

What are your views on Huck - running, yes, no? I've heard very mixed things.

Also, this Santorum guy.....he has ultra-right-wing social views to the point of fascism (big government conservatism at least), but he might try to say he's the moral candidate or something the way Huck did in 08.
Huckabee will most likely run. That will hurt us. We just have to hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. That means doubling all our efforts in Iowa. I doubt Santorum can fund raise to stay in the race very long. He has low name recognition and is viewed negatively by the people that do know him.

[Eric21ND]

Don't forget our ace in the hole...Rand Paul. He will campaign for Ron all over and garner media attention wherever he goes. It will almost be like Ron is in two places at once with Rand out on the campaign trail. He could be the first of the big names to endorse Ron, of course this would be no surprise, but it will be a major positive having a high profile tea party backed Senator in our corner. He will serve as liason between Ron and the general GOP voter who might otherwise hesitate to back Ron. Could Rand also bring Mike Lee, Sarah Palin, Jim Demint, etc on board? Look when Gary Johnson and Michelle Bachmann bow out, they could likely endorse Ron as well. Rand will sell Ron to the voters like a savvy profressional...mark my words!

[rp08orbust]

Please explain how I'm a troll? I'll bet Paul doesn't win a single Republican primary and before the whole board jumps on me I love Ron Paul, however the Republicans don't and they don't care about facts. Thats why Trump, Romney, Huckabee all poll very well. If I had to guess I'd say his ceiling in Iowa is 2nd at best, 3rd New Hampshire, 4th or 5th South Carolina. It's too bad small states like North Dakota, Maine, etc... aren't the first ones because he'd have a very good shot at winning those however when those stats have their race the election is already decided.

Even if you don't think Ron will not win a single state, then unless you believe his chances of winning any given state is absolutely zero across the board, there is are states he is more likely to win than others, which is what the thread is about. And in fact you imply that he is most likely to win Iowa.