Huckabee far ahead in Iowa, but one third of his voters go to Paul if huckster does'nt run

[fatjohn]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/huckabee-up-in-iowa-romney-otherwise.html

Paul jumps from a dissapointing 6% to 15% when huckabee drops out. To all who say that 6 is much better than in 2007, it is worse than in the election of 2008. So we are not really going uphill. The climb we had was in 07, the last 3 years Paul plateaud. Average people must be stupid.

[sailingaway]

Yeah, I like the scenario where Ron ties for second with two other people, behind Romney. Granted, it's one hypothetical scenario...

[RPIdeaMan08]

believe it or not huckster will have up to 30 percent of the vote in most states not matter what is shown about his voting record. I really think he is the GOP front runner and that will show more as we get into the race. He most likely will win the nomination but if Huckabee is forced not to run then Ron Has a great shot and I think would have the election tied up.

[ForLibertyFight]

Someone should make a website comparing all the GOP candidates records

[fatjohn]

Oh and if you ever have a huckabee supporter that comments on ron his age, just talk about huckabee's obesity.

[sailingaway]

believe it or not huckster will have up to 30 percent of the vote in most states not matter what is shown about his voting record. I really think he is the GOP front runner and that will show more as we get into the race. He most likely will win the nomination but if Huckabee is forced not to run then Ron Has a great shot and I think would have the election tied up.

Huck didn't rise until late, and never got the real look Romney and McCain did. To most, he is still unvetted.

[sailingaway]

Oh and if you ever have a huckabee supporter that comments on ron his age, just talk about huckabee's obesity.

Uh, let's call that energy. You can just tell by how much energy Ron burns that his age is not an issue....

[Legend1104]

Based on those numbers I think he will do very well. He has really goods favoriables. The only person that has higher favoriables is Huck and Palin.
I don't think Huck or Palin will run. In that case, I think Ron Paul will do pretty good. Trump is obviously running, so is Romney, and Newt. These three will be his biggest challenge, I think.

[Shane Harris]

doesnt it make sense that the more mediocre candidates with the same views on everything there are, the more they will split eachothers vote, while paul's unique stance and support will not be amongst that crowd and become stronger the more other ppl are fighting for the same voters?

[sailingaway]

Based on those numbers I think he will do very well. He has really goods favoriables. The only person that has higher favoriables is Huck and Palin.
I don't think Huck or Palin will run. In that case, I think Ron Paul will do pretty good. Trump is obviously running, so is Romney, and Newt. These three will be his biggest challenge, I think.

People will get sick of Trump. If not, our country is lost, in any event....

[sailingaway]

doesnt it make sense that the more mediocre candidates with the same views on everything there are, the more they will split eachothers vote, while paul's unique stance and support will not be amongst that crowd and become stronger the more other ppl are fighting for the same voters?

But Ron struck a chord on the real conservatism and Huck was stealing his ideas in the last election, frankly, where he didn't have plans of his own. Some of Huck's followers think he is conservative like Ron but without the 'downsides' of whatever. When Huck is out, Ron does better.

[Shane Harris]

okay makes sense, i wasnt a part of the last campaign or paying attention during the primaries since i still was too young to vote in the primaries anyway. well huck has less chance of beating obama than paul. not to mention he feels like less of a leader than laura bush. she looks more confident and poised than he does. he seems like a nice guy and i would prob like him as a person but def not as a president.

[randolphfuller]

I do not think Huckabee will run. It is good that his support goes to Ron, but depressing that they appeal to the same sort of people.

[sailingaway]

okay makes sense, i wasnt a part of the last campaign or paying attention during the primaries since i still was too young to vote in the primaries anyway. well huck has less chance of beating obama than paul. not to mention he feels like less of a leader than laura bush. she looks more confident and poised than he does. he seems like a nice guy and i would prob like him as a person but def not as a president.

Frankly, Laura Bush would do better than a lot of those yahoos.

[sailingaway]

I do not think Huckabee will run. It is good that his support goes to Ron, but depressing that they appeal to the same sort of people.

Superficially. What is depressing is that so many don't look deeper.

When I was looking for a candidate more conservative than McCain last time (not narrowing it down much there, eh?) I saw Huckabee and put a pin in him to go back to, to look at further, not sold that he wouldn't muck up the Constitution on socially conservative stuff. Then I found Ron and never went back....

It wasn't that Huck was nearly as good, but I didn't know 'as good' as Ron existed, and would have settled for less.

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

Huckabee's numbers are high because he has a megaphone on Fox News. It's blatantly unfair to let him have a show if he's considering running. People are crying foul over Trump and "Celebrity Apprentice", but nary a word over "Huckabee". :mad:

[rp08orbust]

Does anyone know if Huckabee would be on the Ames straw poll ballot if he has not yet announced his candidacy by then?

[sailingaway]

Does anyone know if Huckabee would be on the Ames straw poll ballot if he has not yet announced his candidacy by then?

I'm pretty sure he'd be on it if the organizers wanted him on it...but he might not organize for it. But supporters might.

[Dave Aiello]

Talk about stealing ideas.. Trump has been adopting some lines directly from Ron Paul. In a recent interview, trump is quoted as saying "We shouldn't be the policemen of the world" ... but then added "we should just take their oil and leave".

Don't think Donald didn't notice our enthusiasm and numbers at CPAC. Don't think Donald hasn't googled Ron Paul. He is wrong, however, in thinking that our votes can be won. He may be trying to appear, however, as an "electable" alternative to RP if he adopts Ron Paul rhetoric.

[sailingaway]

Talk about stealing ideas.. Trump has been adopting some lines directly from Ron Paul.

.

Huck did that too. Gary's doing it. It will be coming all over. We have to hope records count.


In a recent interview, trump is quoted as saying "We shouldn't be the policemen of the world" ... but then added "we should just take their oil and leave".

We just suck it out with a really, really powerful vacuum with a really really big tank and scuttle back here quickly like Jack down the Beanstalk.

Shouldn't take more than a week or two, max.

[Dave Aiello]

We just suck it out with a really, really powerful vacuum with a really really big tank and scuttle back here quickly like Jack down the Beanstalk.

Shouldn't take more than a week or two, max.

lol they won't notice - and if they do, they'd never pick a fight with THE DONALD. </ Trump's foreign policy view>

[Koz]

I think y'all are cracked if you don't think Huckster is running. I would be floored if he didn't run, he is polling really well, he's liked by a lot of people especially those who let thier religion choose thier candidate (evangelicals), he can probably raise a lot of money. He can beat Romney most likely. Why would he not run?? I personally think he is the most formidable candidate.

[sailingaway]

Huck is the instant frontrunner if he runs, the question is whether he will stay there. It has to be very hard to turn down trying, though.

[FriedChicken]

As a very serious Christian its kind of insulting to hear so much being said about the "religious" vote in a negative way. I'm preparing to distribute several copies of RP's Liberty defined book, on crowd I want to focus on especially is my fellow Christians.
When I heard about RP it was well into the 2008 race and nothing about him went against my convictions - there was no compromise to me.
The marriage issue finally clicked for one thing. Its a huge slap in God's face for government to define marriage, that is between the couple and God.

I think Christians are being used and manipulated in elections.
If we [Christians] are better informed on RP's stances and the importance of the issues no one is talking about (federal reserve) we'll be the most dedicated to RP's campaign.

[Dave Aiello]

Huck is the instant frontrunner if he runs, the question is whether he will stay there. It has to be very hard to turn down trying, though.

I have a feeling Huck is in it, judging by the way he's been addressing the topic, and how well he's showing in the polls.

Side note: remember, Huck was thrust from obscurity into being a front runner in after his 2nd place finish at Ames last election. We can do this.. We can do this.. :)

[Dave Aiello]

As a very serious Christian its kind of insulting to hear so much being said about the "religious" vote in a negative way. I'm preparing to distribute several copies of RP's Liberty defined book, on crowd I want to focus on especially is my fellow Christians.
When I heard about RP it was well into the 2008 race and nothing about him went against my convictions - there was no compromise to me.
The marriage issue finally clicked for one thing. Its a huge slap in God's face for government to define marriage, that is between the couple and God.

I think Christians are being used and manipulated in elections.
If we [Christians] are better informed on RP's stances and the importance of the issues no one is talking about (federal reserve) we'll be the most dedicated to RP's campaign.

Not sure your point makes much sense when there's a former pastor running. People don't look as deep into it as you've described above. Yes, evangelicals CAN be sold on Ron Paul, but he doesn't jump off the page when an evangelical voter is looking for a fellow bible-thumper to vote for. Huck mentions god in every response during the debate. He wears it on his sleeve. Ron doesn't - and rightfully so.

[sailingaway]

A I'm preparing to distribute several copies of RP's Liberty defined book, on crowd I want to focus on especially is my fellow Christians.
When I heard about RP it was well into the 2008 race and nothing about him went against my convictions - there was no compromise to me.
The marriage issue finally clicked for one thing. Its a huge slap in God's face for government to define marriage, that is between the couple and God.

I think Christians are being used and manipulated in elections.
If we [Christians] are better informed on RP's stances and the importance of the issues no one is talking about (federal reserve) we'll be the most dedicated to RP's campaign.

^^this. The ones we don't like are the ones who use someone's faith to manipulate voters, not the voters who have strong faith.

Some see faith as a reason to ignore the Constitution. I see it as a reason to follow the Constitution, which says the government needs to stay out of faith altogether.

[speciallyblend]

a huckabee nomination = obama's 2nd term!!

[Koz]

As a very serious Christian its kind of insulting to hear so much being said about the "religious" vote in a negative way. I'm preparing to distribute several copies of RP's Liberty defined book, on crowd I want to focus on especially is my fellow Christians.
When I heard about RP it was well into the 2008 race and nothing about him went against my convictions - there was no compromise to me.
The marriage issue finally clicked for one thing. Its a huge slap in God's face for government to define marriage, that is between the couple and God.

I think Christians are being used and manipulated in elections.
If we [Christians] are better informed on RP's stances and the importance of the issues no one is talking about (federal reserve) we'll be the most dedicated to RP's campaign.

You are naieve if you don't think that if a candidate says the gubment should outlaw gay marraige that loads of Christians will vote for that candidate. I think Dr. Paul would leave it to the states, but I guarantee if huckster thought he could get some votes by calling for an anti-gay marriage amendment he would add it to his campaign. There are a lot of nutty Christians out there that would vote for a minister even if they said "lets increase the deficit and debt" just because he is a Christian minister. Nothing against Christians, but there are a lot of one issue voters out there. To a certain extent I am one, I didn't vote for Kasich for governor of Ohio because of his crappy second amendment track record.

[IDefendThePlatform]

As a very serious Christian its kind of insulting to hear so much being said about the "religious" vote in a negative way. I'm preparing to distribute several copies of RP's Liberty defined book, on crowd I want to focus on especially is my fellow Christians.
When I heard about RP it was well into the 2008 race and nothing about him went against my convictions - there was no compromise to me.
The marriage issue finally clicked for one thing. Its a huge slap in God's face for government to define marriage, that is between the couple and God.

I think Christians are being used and manipulated in elections.
If we [Christians] are better informed on RP's stances and the importance of the issues no one is talking about (federal reserve) we'll be the most dedicated to RP's campaign.

I totally agree that conservative Christians should be a strong point for Dr. P. I think this is accounts for a large part of the 1/3 of Huck's support that Ron gets if Huck doesn't run. I also agree that if more Christian voters knew about Ron's faith and family that his numbers would grow even more dramatically.

[aclove]

Back at the NC State YAL event last month, I was lucky enough to be able to speak with Ron during a private reception before his main speech. He stated matter-of-factly that he does not believe that either Huck or Palin will run. He suspects that Palin and Bachmann have had discussions as to which of the two women will run, and that they decided to let Bachmann take a crack at it.

Very interesting stuff.

[tangent4ronpaul]

Talk about stealing ideas.. Trump has been adopting some lines directly from Ron Paul. In a recent interview, trump is quoted as saying "We shouldn't be the policemen of the world" ... but then added "we should just take their oil and leave".

Don't think Donald didn't notice our enthusiasm and numbers at CPAC. Don't think Donald hasn't googled Ron Paul. He is wrong, however, in thinking that our votes can be won. He may be trying to appear, however, as an "electable" alternative to RP if he adopts Ron Paul rhetoric.

This is actually good, for two reasons: First, if they take our positions as part of their platform, we get a partial win, even if RP looses. Secondly, we can endlessly applaud then for adopting RP's position on this that and the other thing - always bringing up that it's RP's position. That makes them seem like RP lite and gets people curious about checking out RP.

[tangent4ronpaul]

Huck is the instant frontrunner if he runs, the question is whether he will stay there. It has to be very hard to turn down trying, though.

You really have to consider why someone runs, do they really want the job and that life. I saw a clip on some web site of a girl Prince Charles was dating that he asked if she was interested in marrying him. She talked about the consequences - always being in the spotlight, living in a fishbowl, a life reduced to writing thank you cards, cutting ribbons, maybe adopting a charity or two... she said that's not a life she wanted. She said no.

So why did Huck run last time? Was it to educate and influence the discussion, like Paul? Does he really want the stress, to be forever forced to be surrounded by bodyguards and having to deal with the countries and worlds BS? Like Paul has said, the danger of putting your name on a ballot is that you might get elected.

Huck right now has stated that he's making tons of money and loves doing his show on FOX. He's even got his own private band and gets to jam out with them and musicians he invites on the show. Perhaps most importantly, he has a national platform where he can influence the discussion, which may be why he ran in the first place. All the perks of being a candidate with none of the downsides - why on earth would he run?

I also remember how he slowly came around on a lot of things - following Paul's lead, last time and think he realized that he was seriously over his head.

[tangent4ronpaul]

Back at the NC State YAL event last month, I was lucky enough to be able to speak with Ron during a private reception before his main speech. He stated matter-of-factly that he does not believe that either Huck or Palin will run. He suspects that Palin and Bachmann have had discussions as to which of the two women will run, and that they decided to let Bachmann take a crack at it.

Very interesting stuff.

Yes, very interesting!

With the current poling, breaking with tradition and announcing a Paul/Huck ticket early would propel them to the number 1 slot - I think...

Paul/Bachmann less so. Unfortunately, Paul will probably pick a running mate that no one has ever heard of but that is a better ideological match.

[libertybrewcity]

a huckabee nomination = obama's 2nd term!!

This. Huckabee knows he can win the nomination but not the general election. It would be a waste of time for him to pursue it. He might poll well in states for the GOP primary, but he would not win states in the general election like Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, and maybe even Florida. A combination of these states is essential to win the election and it all comes down to support from independents. Independents just won't go for him.

[R3volutionJedi]

Nice poll

[S.Shorland]

This point of view needs to be in any grass roots ads that the campaign asks for! I'm a foreigner but I only went for Obama because I didn't know people like Paul existed.'People Like Paul' wold be a good t-shirt slogan too.'People Like Paul! WHY?!'

Superficially. What is depressing is that so many don't look deeper.

When I was looking for a candidate more conservative than McCain last time (not narrowing it down much there, eh?) I saw Huckabee and put a pin in him to go back to, to look at further, not sold that he wouldn't muck up the Constitution on socially conservative stuff. Then I found Ron and never went back....

It wasn't that Huck was nearly as good, but I didn't know 'as good' as Ron existed, and would have settled for less.

[LibertyEagle]

But Ron struck a chord on the real conservatism and Huck was stealing his ideas in the last election, frankly, where he didn't have plans of his own. Some of Huck's followers think he is conservative like Ron but without the 'downsides' of whatever. When Huck is out, Ron does better.

Yup. I run into that all the time. This time around, Dr. Paul has to focus on what he would do to solve our problems and have a plan to do so, rather than just talk about what is wrong. A lot of that is how he frames things. He needs some help and I hope he accepts it.

[romacox]

For people who like Huckabee, I simply show them some of his videos found on youtube (also in this website under Huckabee search), they quickly change their minds.

Lots of Conservatives like Ron Paul (if they know the facts), but are reluctant to vote for him because they buy into the propaganda that "He has no chance". That one seems to be a tough one to get them past (but not Huckabee)

[TomtheTinker]

When I was looking for a candidate more conservative than McCain last time (not narrowing it down much there, eh?) I saw Huckabee and put a pin in him to go back to, to look at further, not sold that he wouldn't muck up the Constitution on socially conservative stuff. Then I found Ron and never went back....

I had a similar experience \. I was drew to hime because of his abolishing of the IRS talk.

[sailingaway]

Back at the NC State YAL event last month, I was lucky enough to be able to speak with Ron during a private reception before his main speech. He stated matter-of-factly that he does not believe that either Huck or Palin will run. He suspects that Palin and Bachmann have had discussions as to which of the two women will run, and that they decided to let Bachmann take a crack at it.

Very interesting stuff.

Bachmann with Palin actively rooting for her would be not so great for us, though, since Bachmann has learned enough about the Federal Reserve to articulate issues to others who came to it as late as she did..... and she's younger which those who aren't already sold on Ron see as a reason for not bothering to do the work to look into him. It is overcoming that threshold that is going to be our issue.

[IndianaPolitico]

I just have a feeling that Huckabee, and Palin won't run. Alot of people I talk to say they like Ron, but he doesn't have a chance of winning. But, if only a few of the candidates drop out, Ron instantly becomes one of the top three!