PPP If neither Huck nor Trump run Ron gets 15% -tied 2d w/2 in Iowa (otherwise depressing)

[sailingaway]

In a Huckabee and Trump free field Romney leads with 25% to 15% each for Paul, Palin, and Gingrich, 10% for Bachmann and 9% for Pawlenty. If you take Palin out of the field too Romney stands at 28% to 19% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, 15% for Bachmann, and 9% for Pawlenty.

Bachmann seems to have eroded his numbers quite a bit there, is how I see it. http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/huckabee-up-in-iowa-romney-otherwise.html

[tsai3904]

Demographics of that poll:

18 to 29 - 8%
30 to 45 - 22%
46 to 65 - 38%
Older than 65 - 32%


Favorability ratings:

Huckabee - 68/19 (+49)
Paul - 55/17 (+38)
Bachmann - 49/13 (+36)
Pawlenty - 41/9 (+32)
Romney - 55/25 (+30)
Palin - 58/29 (+29)
Gingrich - 47/26 (+21)
Trump - 41/40 (+1)

[TheState]

Do you think Obama was born in the US?

48% - No
26% - Yes
26% - Not sure


Wow....


Edit:

Also, RP actually doing BETTER with women in Iowa than men. That's different.

[MikeStanart]

Do you think Obama was born in the US?

48% - No
26% - Yes
26% - Not sure
Wow....

Edit:

Also, RP actually doing BETTER with women in Iowa than men. That's different.

I've been saying it for a while, the birther issue will be a factor in the next election. If Obama is smart, he'll let the GOP focus on the birther issue for the majority of the campaign season, then come out with a birth certificate right before the election, making the GOP seem foolish; thus causing many GOP'ers to avoid the voting booth. (He could always fake one if he's not actually a citizen)

[RileyE104]

I 95% doubt Huckabee will run.

I 80% doubt Palin will run.

I 70% doubt Trump will run.

Romney, Gingrich, Bachmann, Pawlenty, West, Cain - GOPers will be split over these candidates.
It's important that Ron's support stays unified and grows.

[sailingaway]

I 95% doubt Huckabee will run.

I 80% doubt Palin will run.

I 70% doubt Trump will run.

Romney, Gingrich, Bachmann, Pawlenty, West, Cain - GOPers will be split over these candidates.
It's important that Ron's support stays unified and grows.

I 70% doubt Palin will run

I 70% doubt Huck will run

Trump is an attention whore and completely unpredictable. If his popularity bursts early, he'll likely wander off.... otherwise it could go to his head.

[tangent4ronpaul]

I 95% doubt Huckabee will run.

I 80% doubt Palin will run.

I 70% doubt Trump will run.

Romney, Gingrich, Bachmann, Pawlenty, West, Cain - GOPers will be split over these candidates.
It's important that Ron's support stays unified and grows.

Huck has said he's making tons of money and is pretty happy with his current job. Neither Huck or Palin are doing the things potential candidates do. Trump on the other hand is.

The two we have to worry about are Romney and Trump. Both have tons of skeletons but Romney has the Mormon vote and Trump has the mindless TV fans. I suspect the latter are not devoted primary voters.

[Epic]

When Trump bows out, none of his support goes to Ron Paul.

But when Huckabee and his 30% leave the field, a full 9% go to Ron Paul.

Palin leaving only yields Ron Paul 1%.

[IDefendThePlatform]

This is kind of encouraging, I think. Tied for 2nd with two clowns who we can easily surpass. Well within range of Romney, especially once people learn more about RomneyCare and his tax hikes.

If we can do well at the Ames Straw Poll, then we have a chance to place 2nd or even win Iowa. Then we have a chance at the nomination.


Edit: just looked at the full poll with everyone running. We are tied for 6th. Ok, lets get to work people.