Real poll in Kentucky's gov race

[TheDriver]

http://www.whas11.com/news/Williams-dominates-GOP-primary-in-WHAS11CJ-Bluegrass-Poll-119991389.html

Williams/Farmer 49%
Moffett/Harmon 14%
Holsclaw/Vermilion 12%
Undecided 25%
Margin of error +/- 4.4%


Republican primary voters who identify with the Tea Party and its message of attacking the debt and taxes, overwhelmingly support the Williams/Farmer ticket, by an even wider margin than the entire GOP voter pool.
Tea Party voters
Williams/Farmer 53%
Moffett/Harmon 16%
Holsclaw/Vermilion 10%
Undecided 21%
Margin of error +/- 4.4%

[Matt Collins]

Republican primary voters who identify with the Tea Party and its message of attacking the debt and taxes, overwhelmingly support the Williams/Farmer ticket, by an even wider margin than the entire GOP voter pool.Is there any validity to that?

[BamaFanNKy]

Looks very similar to internal polls I've seen. This one is done.

All 3 candidates (6 if you count running mates) are awful.

[Matt Collins]

Ouch

[Nathan Hale]

Looks like Williams/Farmer has it locked for now. Is there any sign of that boat rocking? Is it a 2011 race or a 2012 race?

[Thargok]

It's a primary election that is exactly 1 month away.

[TheTyke]

Most of the TEA Party organizers from around the state support Phil. I think there are a lot of people who agree with the tea party who don't go to events... since Phil has no advertising money or name recognition, they probably just don't know what a statist hack the Establishment candidate is.

If we are to sustain our movement, we will need to win a lot of elections, and make allies. Sure is frustrating to see people turning on Rand & Moffett for personal reasons, and losing sight of the big picture. Politics wear me out sometimes...

[BamaFanNKy]

Most of the TEA Party organizers from around the state support Phil. I think there are a lot of people who agree with the tea party who don't go to events... since Phil has no advertising money or name recognition, they probably just don't know what a statist hack the Establishment candidate is.

If we are to sustain our movement, we will need to win a lot of elections, and make allies. Sure is frustrating to see people turning on Rand & Moffett for personal reasons, and losing sight of the big picture. Politics wear me out sometimes...

I don't see many turning on Rand and most I know who are not addicts, have no real clue who Moffett happens to be.

Fact is, until we win city council and state legislature races..... forget about it. Moffett, should worry about a 2012 state house or Senate run.

[TheTyke]

I don't see many turning on Rand and most I know who are not addicts, have no real clue who Moffett happens to be.

Several big Ron/Rand supporters are majorly vexed that Rand hasn't endorsed Moffett. They claim he's "selling out" & avoiding the people who worked so hard to elect him, and being buddies with the Establishment instead. One even called into Mandy Connell's show about it (probably other programs too.) I think it's nonsense, he's doing what we elected him to do in DC (great work) and owes no one an endorsement... though it would be great, they can't expect him to turn an election on his own.

Then, out here, we have a couple people who post repeatedly to torpedo every pro-Moffett thread. Now there is no real chance of national enthusiasm and support. Neither activity served a useful purpose in my opinion. I debate with both "sides" and am really frustrated and weary at this point.


Fact is, until we win city council and state legislature races..... forget about it. Moffett, should worry about a 2012 state house or Senate run.

They asked Rand to run for the state legislature too. Glad he didn't listen. I agree local races are important, but you work with what you got, and these victories are not impossible if we apply ourselves.

[sailingaway]

These results are actually better than I was expecting from what I was hearing. Medina had lower numbers before her debates, and then took off. If she hadn't been slammed by Beck and flustered her response, she'd have forced a run off, I do believe. Too bad this poll didn't come out earlier.

Are there any debates between now and the primary?

[BamaFanNKy]

Several big Ron/Rand supporters are majorly vexed that Rand hasn't endorsed Moffett. They claim he's "selling out" & avoiding the people who worked so hard to elect him, and being buddies with the Establishment instead. One even called into Mandy Connell's show about it (probably other programs too.) I think it's nonsense, he's doing what we elected him to do in DC (great work) and owes no one an endorsement... though it would be great, they can't expect him to turn an election on his own.
Those supporters are dumb. Those supporters also are part of a group that went around trying to cut Rand's legs out from under him through most of his race. So, that said.... screw them. I heard the guy you are referring to and Mandy told the guy how dumb his argument was since Rand's point was it's not fair to do such things in the primary. If you are the longest running (Phil was the first to announce) and you can only garner 14%, it's the candidate and the campaign manager.... not Rand. Also, if he endorsed, I still wouldn't jump around for joy on their campaign.


Then, out here, we have a couple people who post repeatedly to torpedo every pro-Moffett thread. Now there is no real chance of national enthusiasm and support. Neither activity served a useful purpose in my opinion. I debate with both "sides" and am really frustrated and weary at this point.
Well, it's hard to garner national support when you say "The Free State Project failed" and then try to back track and say someone hacked your account, used your credit card, got approval for your campaign.... etc etc. Hell, even people endorsing him in the Capitol Rotunda (where they organized an anti-Rand Paul rally, that should get the national Paul movement on your side) can't get his name right.


They asked Rand to run for the state legislature too. Glad he didn't listen. I agree local races are important, but you work with what you got, and these victories are not impossible if we apply ourselves.
I don't know anyone who asked Senator Paul to run for State Legislature. No one would have supported him against State Rep Richards. He's in a WKU district and Richards has been unbeatable for 30 years. Everyone knew he would never challenge Guthrie and his eyes were on national level due to his father.

People have been trying to manufacture the enthusiasm for Phil.... sorry man, no one has it. I've seen more James Comer stickers than Phil. Not good when an Ag Commissioner candidate has as much name recognition. It's what happens when you hire a self promoting, do anything to get ahead and backstabber like David Adams to run your campaign on your dime.

I actually feel bad for Phil.

[BamaFanNKy]

These results are actually better than I was expecting from what I was hearing. Medina had lower numbers before her debates, and then took off. If she hadn't been slammed by Beck and flustered her response, she'd have forced a run off, I do believe. Too bad this poll didn't come out earlier.

Are there any debates between now and the primary?

This is nothing like Medina. One, Medina is a full on Liberty candidate. Two Rick Perry was a huge incumbent, Kay Bailey had won state wide office as US Senator. Moffett is running against a well hated Senate President who's district is 6 tiny counties in a 120 county state and a no name county clerk who's a joke in her own county.

There have been debates but, no one cares.

[TheTyke]

Just another example of what I'm talking about... gotta get all the little jabs in against Moffett. Norm knew Phil and discussed him many times... so he messed up his name, big deal. It's completely irrelevant to the issues and doesn't mean what you imply. My mom mixes up my name with my siblings and she's the one who named me. You say those supporters are dumb despite their years of work for liberty. They're acting on their feelings, but I assume you are motivated by dislike for David Adams. Like I said, I weary of both sides, and seeing the liberty movement pointlessly divided.


These results are actually better than I was expecting from what I was hearing. Medina had lower numbers before her debates, and then took off. If she hadn't been slammed by Beck and flustered her response, she'd have forced a run off, I do believe. Too bad this poll didn't come out earlier.

Are there any debates between now and the primary?

He's actually doing very well considering he has so little money at his disposal. The last few rallies I've seen had hundreds of people - most of the same ones who supported Rand. They're ready to hit the streets and do phone work so I assume his numbers will keep going up. No telling if it will be enough though, without being able to afford any advertising... even Medina had some of those.

[TheTyke]

I don't know anyone who asked Senator Paul to run for State Legislature.

I've been told the party did, and Rand may have even referenced it in his book...

[BamaFanNKy]

Just another example of what I'm talking about... gotta get all the little jabs in against Moffett. Norm knew Phil and discussed him many times... so he messed up his name, big deal. It's completely irrelevant to the issues and doesn't mean what you imply. My mom mixes up my name with my siblings and she's the one who named me. You say those supporters are dumb despite their years of work for liberty. They're acting on their feelings, but I assume you are motivated by dislike for David Adams. Like I said, I weary of both sides, and seeing the liberty movement pointlessly divided.
I am not motivated by that. I am motivated by a campaign that numerous times has proven itself willing to lie and throw others under the bus. Also, the people who think "Rand's a sell out" are the guys who were "planning a meeting" during Rand's campaign. I talked to Norm 3 to 4 times a week about these same people. I love Norm and the fact he got his name mixed up is a jab and Norm's reasoning for supporting Phil over Gatewood is Dea Riley. Plain and Simple. If Dea was off the Gatewood ticket, we wouldn't see the fervor IMHO from TBK. Also, let's be frank. I don't like Adams but, the fact that Phil has told me he doesn't support casino gambling and wouldn't consider it and then pulls the "Pass my tax plan and I will put it on the ballot" is BS. Also, he had many opportunities to make inroads with people like me but, he kept trying to do cute crap that proved he was less than genuine.


He's actually doing very well considering he has so little money at his disposal. The last few rallies I've seen had hundreds of people - most of the same ones who supported Rand. They're ready to hit the streets and do phone work so I assume his numbers will keep going up. No telling if it will be enough though, without being able to afford any advertising... even Medina had some of those.

Medina is 1,000,000 times better than Phil and let's be honest. It's starting to sound like the Bill Johnson Senate campaign in Moffettville. I know I am the bad guy for not jumping on the "Phil Me Up" bandwagon but, this constant "why aren't you supporting Phil?" from the handful of people is what has me on here so negative. I roll out my arguments and then they say, 'well you must not like Rand Paul.' That's my issue, Phil is not Rand Paul... hell, Phil hasn't even shown he's Peter Schiff. He's not shown us that he's anything more than someone who donated to Rand's campaign so he could meet Sarah Palin.

Honestly, I may write your name in for Governor. Lord knows I've already started pushing you for 2 other offices. ;)

[BamaFanNKy]

I've been told the party did, and Rand may have even referenced it in his book...

Maybe after he was trending well. I still doubt there was that much to it. Hell, no one even ran against Jody in the past 2 elections. Seriously, it's a no win for the GOP seat.

[TheDriver]

Rand was asked by many leading "party types" during his successful senate run (early stages) to stop running for US Senate and run for something else, anything else. He was also asked by local supporters, and friends of his, in Nov of 2008 to run for a local office. For whatever reason, he declined in all instances. From my understanding, he didn't want to run for any office yet, but realized the time was now for the senate run.

[BamaFanNKy]

Rand was asked by many leading "party types" during his successful senate run (early stages) to stop running for US Senate and run for something else, anything else. He was also asked by local supporters, and friends of his, in Nov of 2008 to run for a local office. For whatever reason, he declined in all instances. From my understanding, he didn't want to run for any office yet, but realized the time was now for the senate run.

Well, that makes sense people asking him to run but, this is not the same thing with Phil. Phil is not Senator Paul nor Phil does he have the national following for the Moffett family. So people understand it better..... playing for UK doesn't make you good (see Gillespie teams). You actually have to have blue chip players to win.

[Sola_Fide]

Several big Ron/Rand supporters are majorly vexed that Rand hasn't endorsed Moffett. They claim he's "selling out" & avoiding the people who worked so hard to elect him, and being buddies with the Establishment instead. One even called into Mandy Connell's show about it (probably other programs too.) I think it's nonsense, he's doing what we elected him to do in DC (great work) and owes no one an endorsement... though it would be great, they can't expect him to turn an election on his own.

Then, out here, we have a couple people who post repeatedly to torpedo every pro-Moffett thread. Now there is no real chance of national enthusiasm and support. Neither activity served a useful purpose in my opinion. I debate with both "sides" and am really frustrated and weary at this point.



They asked Rand to run for the state legislature too. Glad he didn't listen. I agree local races are important, but you work with what you got, and these victories are not impossible if we apply ourselves.


Yes, that is all I hear about at our Tea Party meetings. There are some major contributors/coordinators/organizers who are pissed at Rand for not explicitly endorsing Phil.

[TheTyke]

Maybe after he was trending well. I still doubt there was that much to it. Hell, no one even ran against Jody in the past 2 elections. Seriously, it's a no win for the GOP seat.

That's probably why they wanted him to run for it - to keep him out of the way. He'll be a headache for years as a US Senator. :D

I agree that Phil isn't quite a Medina or Schiff. But Bill Johnson?!?! That's harsh... Phil never wanted to conduct "kinetic military action" against "Islamofascists" in Indiana, California and the surrounding states. :P I only see benefit to trying to get good people elected - working against others is only useful as a means to that end.

Phil would advance a lot of TBK's ideas, especially on the state sovereignty issues, and their enthusiasm is legitimate. Norm & Gatewood are old buddies (remember the reference in Gatewood's book?) but Norm said straight up this time he would support whoever was most seriously trying to win, and that's why he'd back Phil. I imagine if Phil loses the primary many will support Gatewood.


Yes, that is all I hear about at our Tea Party meetings. There are some major contributors/coordinators/organizers who are pissed at Rand for not explicitly endorsing Phil.

Sigh... :( Wasteful divisions in our movement.

[BamaFanNKy]

Yes, that is all I hear about at our Tea Party meetings. There are some major contributors/coordinators/organizers who are pissed at Rand for not explicitly endorsing Phil.

If they were "Major COntributors," Phil would have more money.

[Sola_Fide]

If they were "Major COntributors," Phil would have more money.

Yes, I know. It is really bad that Phil can't counter William's radio ads right now.

[TheTyke]

If they were "Major COntributors," Phil would have more money.

Maybe they're too broke after maxing out to Rand... ;)

[Thargok]

Then, out here, we have a couple people who post repeatedly to torpedo every pro-Moffett thread. Now there is no real chance of national enthusiasm and support. Neither activity served a useful purpose in my opinion. I debate with both "sides" and am really frustrated and weary at this point.


I'll stand by everything I have said, Phil isn't a a great candidate, he is a great guy but not a great candidate. The problems with his campaign are all rookie mistakes that should have been avoided. Many people in the liberty movement and TBK laid out an explicit outline on what Moffett needed to do to run a legitimate campaign and they were ignored. Many passionate people were turned away when they tried to help make fundraising phone calls and help with mailers because they were "unnecessary" and Phil had it "in the bag". The fact of the matter is that everything I sacrificed my time and money for was thrown away by incompetence as the Liberty movement in this state is now a joke as a result of a single poorly run campaign.


Yes, that is all I hear about at our Tea Party meetings. There are some major contributors/coordinators/organizers who are pissed at Rand for not explicitly endorsing Phil.

I'm sure I've heard this from a few of the exact same people. So I asked a buddy of mine who doesn't follow politics the other night about what he thought of Rand and what he thought of Phil Moffett. First of all he thought Phil Moffett already held some lowly state level seat, he didn't know he was running for Governor and had no idea what his platform was. He didn't know a single issue that Phil stood for, I believe his exact words were "he's running on basic tea-party like stuff, right?". About Rand, he was fairly well kept up, talked about how he "loved him" knew at least 5-10 different recent soundbites and could tell you everything you might want to know about him. Being in Lexington, he keeps up on this stuff through talk radio and yet he doesn't know who Phil Moffett is. He practically listens to Leland Conway everyday and has no idea who Phil Moffett truly is or what he stands for, which means that Rand's endorsement in this little case study would be more of a "who the hell is that?" moment, than a "I think I'll support Moffett." Now perhaps he doesn't care about the Governors race, although he did bring up the martial problems of Richie Farmer, so that is a stretch.

If I had seen a single TV, Radio, Mailer, Door Hanger for Moffett I would feel better about him, but a $300k money bomb that raises $10k (which by the way is 10 maxed out donors) despite procuring a large portion of Ron's/Rand's e-mail list is ridiculous, almost a ridiculous as these poll results.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

I don't know anyone who asked Senator Paul to run for State Legislature.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?201834-Party-Hacks-Want-Rand-To-Run-For-State-Senate

[TheDriver]

But Bill Johnson?!?! That's harsh... Phil never wanted to conduct "kinetic military action" against "Islamofascists" in Indiana, California and the surrounding states. :P I only see benefit to trying to get good people elected - working against others is only useful as a means to that end.



QFT!

I'm convinced that if Bill Johnson is elected SOS, he will summon a "Kentucky Navy" consisting of bass and jon boats to invade Hawaii. "Show us proof Barack Obama is Kenyan, or we'll invade," said SOS Bill Johnson.

http://media.channelblade.com/boat_graphics/electronic_brochure/company26722/142807_p_t_640x480_image01.jpg

[sailingaway]

QFT!

I'm convinced that if Bill Johnson is elected SOS, he will summon a "Kentucky Navy" consisting of bass and jon boats to invade Hawaii. "Show us proof Barack Obama is Kenyan, or we'll invade," said SOS Bill Johnson.

http://media.channelblade.com/boat_graphics/electronic_brochure/company26722/142807_p_t_640x480_image01.jpg

Well, that should certainly be interesting:

http://www.mvmediaatl.com/Wagadu/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/sea-storm-300x211.jpg http://www.solarnavigator.net/films_movies_actors/actors_films_images/perfect_storm_big_wave.jpg

[IndianaPolitico]

Wow, I was hoping Moffett was a little closer then that. But you never know what will happen between now and the primary.

[TheTyke]

I'll stand by everything I have said, Phil isn't a a great candidate, he is a great guy but not a great candidate. The problems with his campaign are all rookie mistakes that should have been avoided. Many people in the liberty movement and TBK laid out an explicit outline on what Moffett needed to do to run a legitimate campaign and they were ignored. Many passionate people were turned away when they tried to help make fundraising phone calls and help with mailers because they were "unnecessary" and Phil had it "in the bag". The fact of the matter is that everything I sacrificed my time and money for was thrown away by incompetence as the Liberty movement in this state is now a joke as a result of a single poorly run campaign.

Indeed, I haven't disagreed with any of this. Merely pointing out that when trying to build enthusiasm, or expose it to new potential national support (so we could afford mailers etc.), we weren't helping by airing the campaign's weaknesses or talking about Norm saying a name wrong... anyhow, take heart buddy, all is not lost, these things will pass. :)

[TheDriver]

http://bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com/2011/04/19/holsclaw-reports-22k-in-campaign-contributions/

LOUISVILLE — Republican gubernatorial candidate Bobbie Holsclaw has filed a financial report showing she raised $22,774 between Jan. 25 and April 15.


Williams/Farmer 49%
Moffett/Harmon 14%
Holsclaw/Vermilion 12%
Undecided 25%
Margin of error +/- 4.4%

Bobbie has been in the race only a few months, raised hardly anything, and is virtually tied with Moffett--who has been in the race 3 or 4 times as long of Holsclaw. That has to be somewhat sobering for those paying attention.

Moffett should have dropped out along time ago (it seems), unless he's attempting to run an educational campaign.

[BamaFanNKy]

http://bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com/2011/04/19/holsclaw-reports-22k-in-campaign-contributions/

Bobbie has been in the race only a few months, raised hardly anything, and is virtually tied with Moffett--who has been in the race 3 or 4 times as long of Holsclaw. That has to be somewhat sobering for those paying attention.

Moffett should have dropped out along time ago (it seems), unless he's attempting to run an educational campaign.

Maybe discussing and embracing the Hemp issue earlier would have helped. Then again, there are about 2,000,000 other things that should have gone differently.

[Thargok]

Maybe discussing and embracing the Hemp issue earlier would have helped. Then again, there are about 2,000,000 other things that should have gone differently.

It doesn't hurt that Holsclaw actually has issues and talks about how to make things work. Phil's page is a bunch of promises, Holsclaw talks about how gambling could help fund charter schools and help with taxes.

[BamaFanNKy]

Then you add Williams fundraiser #s:

The GOP gubernatorial ticket of Senate President David Williams and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer have raised $446,943 in the first few months of 2011, heavily outpacing their two primary opponents in fundraising.

According to a release from the Williams-Farmer campaign, the new fundraising report brings the campaign’s total raised funds to $1.12 million so far. The campaign has a tad under $670,000 cash on hand.

Hell, even the GOP candidate for Atty General is outpacing Moffett and current AG Jack Conway:

Republican nominee for Attorney General Todd P'Pool has more than doubled Jack Conway's fundraising numbers! P'Pool has $305,647 in the bank...Conway has $115,046!!!

[sailingaway]

Then you add Williams fundraiser #s:


Hell, even the GOP candidate for Atty General is outpacing Moffett and current AG Jack Conway:

Wow. People seem kinda down on Jack.

Wouldn't waste effort on it, but it doesn't break my heart, either.