View Full Version : Of the Early Primaries, how many will Ron Paul win?
shepburn
10-25-2007, 01:52 PM
Remember the first seven states are:
New Hampshire
Iowa
South Carolina
Nevada
Michigan
Florida
Wyoming
Delaware
10-25-2007, 01:53 PM
New Hampshire - Best Shot at Winning
Iowa - Ok Shot at Winning
South Carolina - Very Low Shot at Winning
Nevada - Good Shot at Winning
Michigan - Ok Shot at Winning
Florida - Ok Shot at Winning
Wyoming - Good Shot at Winning
New Hampshire, Wyoming, and Nevada
ronpaulyourmom
10-25-2007, 01:57 PM
New Hampshire - Best Shot at Winning
Iowa - Ok Shot at Winning
South Carolina - Very Low Shot at Winning
Nevada - Good Shot at Winning
Michigan - Ok Shot at Winning
Florida - Ok Shot at Winning
Wyoming - Good Shot at Winning
I agree, with the exception of Florida.
shepburn
10-25-2007, 01:58 PM
Delaware ... I like your analysis.
Be sure to put which states you counted as win in you answer above.
I pick NH, NV, MI
terlinguatx
10-25-2007, 02:00 PM
...
Patrick Henry
10-25-2007, 02:02 PM
Yes:
New Hampshire
Nevada
Michigan
Wyoming
Iowa
No:
South Carolina
Florida
katao
10-25-2007, 02:04 PM
Won't be first in Wyoming - only the 980 precinct committeemen/women can vote, and they are likely mostly establishment Republicans. Plus it is Dick Cheney territory.
brumans
10-25-2007, 02:05 PM
If we win New Hampshire there will be a domino effect for the other states.
majinkoola
10-25-2007, 02:13 PM
This is how I think it will go:
Paul: NH, Michigan
Romney: Iowa, Nevada
Giuliani: Florida
Thompson: South Carolina
I have no clue who Wyoming will go to.
njandrewg
10-25-2007, 02:18 PM
New Hampshire - Ron Paul
Iowa - Huckaberry
South Carolina - Ron Paul / Thompson
Nevada - Ron Paul
Michigan - Ron Paul
Florida - Rudy
Wyoming - Ron Paul
shepburn
10-25-2007, 02:18 PM
I agree about FL being the most difficult (but not impossible) state. Of course my only logic behind this is that I'm assuming to many old folks will not "get it" when the hear Ron's SocSec plan.
But I might be wrong ... who knows.
Michigan will be the "shot heard 'round the world"
Patrick Henry
10-25-2007, 02:22 PM
Michigan will be the "shot heard 'round the world"
I agree with this.
jgmaynard
10-25-2007, 02:33 PM
I voted three, cause I think he is going to take NH, NV and MI. WY is a possibility, however.
NH - well, guh!
MI - That Ann Arbor clip was so amazing, it seems like there's an army there already.
NV - Heard nothing but good stories from there.
WY - Pretty friendly to liberty, but the R blowback the FSP got there in 2003 makes me question it a bit. I bet Ron's stilll #2 or 3 there though.
JM
freelance
10-25-2007, 02:52 PM
New Hampshire - Ron Paul
Iowa - Huckabee
South Carolina - Romney or Huckabee
Nevada - Ron Paul
Michigan - Ron Paul - agree about shot heard round the world (and oh, how sweet it is!)
Florida - Rudy
Wyoming - Rudy
shepburn
10-25-2007, 02:54 PM
The Dearborn Arab connection could be amazing for us!
NH & Nevada are a good chance.
Is Michigan a closed or open primary?
Ron Paul Fan
10-25-2007, 03:03 PM
I think we'll win em all. Once we clinch Iowa it'll be like a snowball rolling down a hill accumulating speed and more snow and debris. There won't be any stopping us is my point! If New Hampshire moves up to December, good! We'll win that one and it'll push us into Iowa. Wyoming will be tough, but once we've proven ourselves they'll realize that Ron Paul is their best chance to retain the White House. Then comes Nevada and Michigan. It's like Old Brooksy said in Shawshank Redemption, "Easy peasy Japaneasy!" South Carolina will then fall as well. If you've ever set up some dominoes and then pushed one over you know what will happen. They all fall down! Getting the nomination is the easiest part. A matchup against Hillary is the real test. The Clintons are very powerful and they know what they're doing. We have to convince the neo-cons that Paul will be good on national security! That is the key! The key!!!!!!!!
brumans
10-25-2007, 03:05 PM
NH & Nevada are a good chance.
Is Michigan a closed or open primary?
Open
ItsTime
10-25-2007, 03:08 PM
can I change my vote? lol I pick 3
Nefertiti
10-25-2007, 03:42 PM
Delaware ... I like your analysis.
Be sure to put which states you counted as win in you answer above.
I pick NH, NV, MI
That's what I would pick too.
zero??? who's voting for that?
RevolutionSD
10-25-2007, 04:07 PM
Winning even one of these would shock the world!
aunt_shoes
10-25-2007, 04:22 PM
Why is SC such a longshot?
Ron Paul Fan
10-25-2007, 04:23 PM
Why is SC such a longshot?
Two words: Stephen Colbert!
shepburn
10-25-2007, 10:07 PM
the median is three ... but just one would be a major victory
amakris
10-26-2007, 09:12 AM
NH - large donor count, rising polling, large TV blitz, large undecided count
MI - Hillary only Dem on the ballot: Dems may want to play in the Republican primary, Ann Arbor as political leader for state is getting great Ron Paul coverage and momentum (and drew 2,000+ at rally), large independent voter block w/ open primary
NV - Northwest US is libertarian country
Ron Paul will take 3 of the 7 early states.
werdd
10-26-2007, 09:58 AM
i dont think we will win florida, its the neocon capitol of the world
werdd
10-26-2007, 09:59 AM
Two words: Stephen Colbert!
stephen colbert is running as a democrat.
Duckman
10-26-2007, 10:04 AM
stephen colbert is running as a democrat.
He's running as both, but I happen to think that either Colbert will be forced out of the race due to campaign laws or he will get most votes as a Democrat and not hurt Paul too much.
I agree with NH/MI/NV. I live in Florida but I have no illusions unfortunately that it will go to Rudy, unless there is a SEA CHANGE in people's attitudes. We aren't going down without a fight tho!
Patrick Henry
10-26-2007, 10:08 AM
MI - Hillary only Dem on the ballot: Dems may want to play in the Republican primary, Ann Arbor as political leader for state is getting great Ron Paul coverage and momentum (and drew 2,000+ at rally), large independent voter block w/ open primary
Not to mention the complete destruction of the auto industry. Thanks in large part, if not entirely due to the unconstitutional trade treaties.
shepburn
11-14-2007, 04:33 PM
I think Paul will outright win 3 of the early states.
NH, NV, WY.
Michigan is possible.
Florida will be the most challenging by far!
Tyler19
11-14-2007, 04:35 PM
Very Very unlikely that Ron Paul will win Michigan. We most likely will be stripped of our primary and have a closed delegate election.
Adamsa
11-14-2007, 04:39 PM
Out of those I can see NH, Nevada and Michigan.
Furis
11-14-2007, 04:41 PM
New Hampshire- Win
Iowa- 2nd or 3rd
South Carolina- 2nd or 3rd
Nevada- Win
Michigan- Win or 2nd
Florida- Not top 3
Wyoming- Win or 2nd
Tyler19
11-14-2007, 07:15 PM
Very Very unlikely that Ron Paul will win Michigan. We most likely will be stripped of our primary and have a closed delegate election
tnvoter
11-14-2007, 07:35 PM
Very Very unlikely that Ron Paul will win Michigan. We most likely will be stripped of our primary and have a closed delegate election
Tell that to the people flying RON PAUL 4 Pres Planes over Michigan vs OSU
AlexMerced
11-14-2007, 07:40 PM
New Hampshire - Ron Paul
Iowa - Huckabee
South Carolina - Ron Paul / Thompson
Nevada - Ron Paul
Michigan - Ron Paul
Florida - Rudy
Wyoming - Ron Paul
Menthol Patch
11-14-2007, 07:41 PM
He can win all of them if we keep on donating and spreading the word about Ron Paul.
kipload
11-14-2007, 08:02 PM
New Hampshire- Win
Iowa- 2nd or 3rd
South Carolina- 2nd or 3rd
Nevada- Win
Michigan- Win or 2nd
Florida- Not top 3
Wyoming- Win or 2nd
+1
paulitics
11-14-2007, 08:10 PM
Very Very unlikely that Ron Paul will win Michigan. We most likely will be stripped of our primary and have a closed delegate election
source?
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