PPP Poll - Florida GOP Presidential Primary

[tsai3904]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/no-gop-favorite-in-florida.html

PPP surveyed 427 usual Florida Republican primary voters from March 24th to 27th.
The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.7%.

Results:

Mike Huckabee - 18%
Mitt Romney - 18%
Newt Gingrich - 18%
Sarah Palin - 15%
Michele Bachmann - 7%
Ron Paul - 6%
Tim Pawlenty - 6%
Haley Barbour - 3%

[IDefendThePlatform]

Damn it. We have our work cut out for us.

[sailingaway]

Damn it. We have our work cut out for us.

Yeah, I wish the early states were Maine, Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, Nevada...... states where Ron does best......

[RP Supporter]

I don't think Huckabee will run. He seems to be quite happy on FOX. Also, take a look at his weight recently. It's gone up again. I think he'd be taking better care of himself if he intended to wage another grueling campaign.

Paul can win, but he'll have to find a way to weaken Bachmann. She may be tougher than many of the frontrunners, because her fundraising is pretty good and her voters are likely closer to Ron then Romney.

[tsai3904]

The one bright spot about these polls is that these polls are conducted on usual Republican primary voters who tend to be older. Most of the polls don't capture the younger generations who voted for the first time last election (like me) or just registered after learning about Ron Paul.

Ron Paul's favorable/unfavorable rating in the Florida poll was 53/16 with 31% unsure. There's still a lot of people who don't have an opinion.

[Matt Collins]

Huckabee I believe is running, so long as Palin doesn't.

FL might be a lost cause unfortunately.

[Matt Collins]

This is fascinating....
In 2008 Romney received 31% of the vote in the Florida primary so his support has fallen quite a bit since then, consistent (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/04/romney-support-fallinng-huck-up.html) with what we're finding for him across the country. Huckabee, on the other hand, is seeing a rise in his standing from the 13% he got in the state last time.

The reason Romney isn't really proving to be the favorite in Florida is a lack of support from voters describing themselves as 'very conservative,' who at 40% constitute the largest share of the primary electorate in the state. Romney's favorability with them is only 59%, placing him well behind Huckabee's 81%, Gingrich's 73%, Palin's 71%, and even Ron Paul's 60%. Only 12% of those voters say he's their choice for the nomination, putting him firmly in fourth place.

And then there is this:

The one version of the Republican primary where we did find someone with a clear lead was when Jeb Bush was included as a possible candidate. 30% of voters said they would pick him with Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney all at 14% and no one else hitting double digits.

[kahless]

This is fascinating....

And then there is this:

Amazing that the most Conservative and pro-life candidate Ron Paul only gets 60% among these very Conservative Floridians. I blame the Foxnews prior disinformation campaign.

[sailingaway]

Huckabee I believe is running, so long as Palin doesn't.

FL might be a lost cause unfortunately.

Except that it is my understanding that Florida has open primaries. That is why McCain did so well. Maybe we should be looking at ATYPICAL GOP primary voters there...

[nate895]

This is fascinating....

And then there is this:

Ron Paul's favorables were in the upper 30's last time, and he was most opposed by people in the "very conservative" category, so Ron has picked an unfathomable amount of steam in usual terms. I don't know why anyone wouldn't be excited about this upcoming election. It's looking brighter by the day.

[Matt Collins]

Except that it is my understanding that Florida has open primaries. That is why McCain did so well. Maybe we should be looking at ATYPICAL GOP primary voters there...No, FL has closed primaries.

[Matt Collins]

Amazing that the most Conservative and pro-life candidate Ron Paul only gets 60% among these very Conservative Floridians. I blame the Foxnews prior disinformation campaign.That's only a small part of it.

However we can fix a lot of this by doing direct mail (the campaign doing this actually), and by going door to door. If all of our people actually organize their precincts then we'll be able to change perception. Talking to your neighbors usually carries more weight with people than talking heads on the news.

[Agorism]

50 billion in WEEKLY deficit spending.

Boehner cuts 38 billion in YEARLY deficit spending, and yet the repubs are still supporting the clown show candidates.