Paul rises to 4% in California's Field Poll

[FluffyUnbound]

Giuliani drops 10 points.

It's starting to happen, guys.

[Bradley in DC]

Mods, please merge with this established thread:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=28641

Same thing about posting in the right place to avoid duplicates. Much more cordial to just join in an existing conversation. ;)

[FluffyUnbound]

Again, I just checked several pages of threads and don't see anything about this.

But if there is a thread out there, hey - please merge it.

[noxagol]

Really, I think we have to double his numbers because of the way polling is done, maybe even triple or quadruple. I am willing to bet that 1/2 to 3/4 of the Ron's supporters are people who do not fit the polls critiea and do not get called. I'm talking about republicans who didn't vote last primary, independents, democrats, and the apathy-cured people who never voted before (this would be me, I could have voted last election but chose not to because no one was good and I did not know of third-parties at the time).

[Drknows]

just wait till leno......

[kylejack]

Really, I think we have to double his numbers because of the way polling is done, maybe even triple or quadruple. I am willing to bet that 1/2 to 3/4 of the Ron's supporters are people who do not fit the polls critiea and do not get called. I'm talking about republicans who didn't vote last primary, independents, democrats, and the apathy-cured people who never voted before (this would be me, I could have voted last election but chose not to because no one was good and I did not know of third-parties at the time).
Likely voters is typically gauged with two questions worded roughly as follows:

1. Are you a registered voter?
2. Do you intend to vote in a primary, and if so, which one?

There's not many polling firms that are only polling people who voted in the last primary. For most polling firms, numbers are randomly dialed, so that includes cell phones and any other type of phones.

[noxagol]

Likely voters is typically gauged with two questions worded roughly as follows:

1. Are you a registered voter?
2. Do you intend to vote in a primary, and if so, which one?

There's not many polling firms that are only polling people who voted in the last primary. For most polling firms, numbers are randomly dialed, so that includes cell phones and any other type of phones.

Oh, well most people here stated that what I said was how they did it. I have never looked it up myself, to much other crap to do heh.

I still don't trust polling though.

[kylejack]

Oh, well most people here stated that what I said was how they did it. I have never looked it up myself, to much other crap to do heh.

I still don't trust polling though.
There's still room for error. The biggest part is that after polling, they balance the results on the basis of who generally votes in primaries. If there is unusually high attendance from: youth, black Republicans, men, or several other demographics, Ron Paul is going to do a lot better. That is still a big if, though, because many times youth have flaked out on elections when politicians thought they surely had the youth motivated to go vote.

[brandon]

Likely voters is typically gauged with two questions worded roughly as follows:

1. Are you a registered voter?
2. Do you intend to vote in a primary, and if so, which one?

There's not many polling firms that are only polling people who voted in the last primary. For most polling firms, numbers are randomly dialed, so that includes cell phones and any other type of phones.

huh? I have never heard of these types of polls being conducted by calling random numbers. Where di you get this information from?

[kylejack]

huh? I have never heard of these types of polls being conducted by calling random numbers. Where di you get this information from?
Most political polling is done this way. I used to work for Gallup conducting surveys.

[Bradley in DC]

huh? I have never heard of these types of polls being conducted by calling random numbers. Where di you get this information from?

I posted several threads about Pollster.com and other sources who explain more about the polling industry.