PDA

View Full Version : How many votes will Ron Paul need in NH to win?



TechnoGuyRob
10-25-2007, 12:10 AM
So we can start planning half of the number of people to turn into Paulites. :) (i.e., we should get twice this many)

In 2000, John Mcain won 49% of the votes with 115k ballots, with Bush trailing with 72k (30%) and Steve Forbes with 30k (13%).

In 2004, George Bush ran unopposed with 50k (80%) votes.
TechnoGuyRob
10-25-2007, 12:13 AM
As for my opinion, with the Republican field very split, I think we'll do with a minimum of 40-60k.
Cali4RonPaul
10-25-2007, 12:16 AM
As for my opinion, with the Republican field very split, I think we'll do with a minimum of 40-60k.

If you are correct that is very promising. :D
mavtek
10-25-2007, 12:16 AM
Wow not going to be easy!
jgmaynard
10-25-2007, 01:02 AM
I would think that it will probably be about 30%, considering the number of candidates running. However, Jason Sorens (founder of the FSP and a FAR superior authority compared to me) mentioned once that in any race of 3 or more candidates, it almost always takes about 40%.
I wish I knew what out polling numbers were among I's in the state - that's the biggest variable. Re-registered Ds figure in too. Naturally, our people will also turn out in MUCH larger numbers than the supporters of any other candidate, our people will overwhelm the numbers of others standing outside (good in itself for another few points) and that all plays into the final number.

JM