Handicapping the Redistricting of 49

[MozoVote]

The census counted 9,535,483 people in N.C. Divide by 120, and that means each district optimally should be 78,803 people. There is room for about a 5% variation from perfection, to meet court scrutiny. So that's a target range of 74,863 to 82,743.

The GOP is saying it will make "sensible" districts, so I would assume Franklin County with 60,619 people will be kept whole. That still leaves a few precincts in the adjacent counties to pick up in order to round out the total.

Nash County did not vote for Glen last time, so that would dissuade the GOP in re-allocating these precincts.

I doubt any districts in Wake would be pulled in, because it'll be a "single county cluster" of multiple Representatives. I doubt the district would be run to the north into Warren county... because the northern precincts of Franklin voted Dem in 2010, and the GOP is already diluting a narrowly held district if you go farther north into heavily Dem precincts.

That leaves Vance or Granville. Vance is not too likely for the same reason Warren is. So I'd lay odds that Glen will get the 3 southeastern precincts along highway 56 in Granville. The new district population total: 79,159.

[GunnyFreedom]

The census counted 9,535,483 people in N.C. Divide by 120, and that means each district optimally should be 78,803 people. There is room for about a 5% variation from perfection, to meet court scrutiny. So that's a target range of 74,863 to 82,743.

The GOP is saying it will make "sensible" districts, so I would assume Franklin County with 60,619 people will be kept whole. That still leaves a few precincts in the adjacent counties to pick up in order to round out the total.

Nash County did not vote for Glen last time, so that would dissuade the GOP in re-allocating these precincts.

I doubt any districts in Wake would be pulled in, because it'll be a "single county cluster" of multiple Representatives. I doubt the district would be run to the north into Warren county... because the northern precincts of Franklin voted Dem in 2010, and the GOP is already diluting a narrowly held district if you go farther north into heavily Dem precincts.

That leaves Vance or Granville. Vance is not too likely for the same reason Warren is. So I'd lay odds that Glen will get the 3 southeastern precincts along highway 56 in Granville. The new district population total: 79,159.

Southern Vance votes Republican relatively well, even though there are awful few registered Republicans there. Granville County also contains Oxford, which is sorta the home address of the LP NC HQ. I would do very well with either one.

[jacque]

The census counted 9,535,483 people in N.C. Divide by 120, and that means each district optimally should be 78,803 people. There is room for about a 5% variation from perfection, to meet court scrutiny. So that's a target range of 74,863 to 82,743.

The GOP is saying it will make "sensible" districts, so I would assume Franklin County with 60,619 people will be kept whole. That still leaves a few precincts in the adjacent counties to pick up in order to round out the total.

Nash County did not vote for Glen last time, so that would dissuade the GOP in re-allocating these precincts.

I doubt any districts in Wake would be pulled in, because it'll be a "single county cluster" of multiple Representatives. I doubt the district would be run to the north into Warren county... because the northern precincts of Franklin voted Dem in 2010, and the GOP is already diluting a narrowly held district if you go farther north into heavily Dem precincts.

That leaves Vance or Granville. Vance is not too likely for the same reason Warren is. So I'd lay odds that Glen will get the 3 southeastern precincts along highway 56 in Granville. The new district population total: 79,159.

I am hoping my precinct in Southern Vance would be in his district. Just before the 2010 election, we picked up more Republicans since 2008. Sandy Creek is the strongest Republican precinct in Vance County.

[marc1888]

Southern Vance votes Republican relatively well, even though there are awful few registered Republicans there. Granville County also contains Oxford, which is sorta the home address of the LP NC HQ. I would do very well with either one.

I am the new Political Director for the LPNC. Just thought i would share... ;)

[Matt Collins]

If they have a candidate in mind nearby they will simply draw Gunny out and their guy in - even if it means not changing the district lines by much. They are very likely to do that here in TN.

[MozoVote]

Another reason Glen's additional constituents will likely come from Vance or Granville, is the 2010 planning map shows district 32 as overpopulated.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/GIS/RandR07/BaseInfo/2010_Population_Deviation/HRP_2010_Ideal_vs_Actual.pdf

[GunnyFreedom]

If they have a candidate in mind nearby they will simply draw Gunny out and their guy in - even if it means not changing the district lines by much. They are very likely to do that here in TN.

They'd have to shoot themselves in the foot. Either add another guy to the table in Wake County (never happen) Draw from both sides of a battleground in Nash, or take in reliable Republican voters in Vance or Granville.

If they wanted to hurt the district they'd add Warren, but I have a following there that they can't grasp yet. :D

Pretty much anything they could do to this district it would help me.

[GunnyFreedom]

Southern Vance is very likely if it makes the numbers up. It's 79,400 roughly from memory. They may cluster me and give me Southern Vance AND Southeastern Granville just to balance the population from a cold numbers perspective, and to keep the "Northward from Wake" community more together. I'm not in on the process this year so all I can do is speculate.

[MozoVote]

Getting that area would make you the "go to" guy for discussions on US-1 out of Raleigh. Another win! Would be harder to rationally keep you off the transportation committees next term.

[Oldsouljer]

Southern Vance is very likely if it makes the numbers up. It's 79,400 roughly from memory. They may cluster me and give me Southern Vance AND Southeastern Granville just to balance the population from a cold numbers perspective, and to keep the "Northward from Wake" community more together. I'm not in on the process this year so all I can do is speculate.

I'm the ranking Republican in SE Granville. Mind if I call you?

[jacque]

Here is Glen's information. Are you planning on going to the public hearing at Vance Granville on Wednesday, April 20?

Representative Glen Bradley

North Carolina State House

District 49: Franklin, Nash, Halifax

Raleigh Office:


glen.bradley@ncleg.net

(919) 733-5860

NC House of Representatives

300 N. Salisbury Street, Room 536

Raleigh, NC 27603-5925

Freedom Mom

[GunnyFreedom]

I'm the ranking Republican in SE Granville. Mind if I call you?

By all means do feel free to call, and there is a resource that may be handy to have access to.

The page on the ncleg.net website containing all the redistricting information is here:

http://ncleg.net/gis/randr07/redistricting.html

and particularly interesting for our purposes is the "Deviation of Current District Populations from Ideal using 2010 Census Counts" which shows that my district is 1,683 citizens below ideal, or 2.1% low, and district 32 is 78 citizens above ideal, or 0.1% high.

The only way to make this balance will be to basically redraw them from scratch, so I have no idea what will happen, and I am not on the redistricting committee so I likely won't know what's going to happen until everybody else does.

[eduardo89]

Another reason Glen's additional constituents will likely come from Vance or Granville, is the 2010 planning map shows district 32 as overpopulated.

http://www.ncga.state.nc.us/GIS/RandR07/BaseInfo/2010_Population_Deviation/HRP_2010_Ideal_vs_Actual.pdf

Wake and Johnston Counties will probably have to be completely redrawn, with another House seat at the expense of somewhere else in the state. District 7 could probably be split up and redistributed between Districts 5, 8, 23, 24, 25, and 27. All of those except 25 are Democratic counties, so I could see the GOP doing that as it would mean one less Democrat district in an area that is not going to vote GOP any time soon.


Gunny could then get some of Vance or Granville Counties. Vance would seem more logical as that would keep Granville intact as one district.

Another option could be the district 49 looses its weird extension in the northeast to districts 7 and 27 and takes on parts of Vance or Granville and Wake counties to make up that population loss and bring districts 32 and 40 down to the desired population levels.


I should note that I'm probably completely wrong in all this, I don't really know anything about NC politics and I just came up with this from US Census numbers, plus the map you posted and a bit of wikipedia!

[libertybrewcity]

Here's more info on redistricting in North Carolina and possible outcomes:
http://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/Redistricting_in_North_Carolina

Ballotpedia is one of my favorite websites:)

[Oldsouljer]

Yes, I was at the Person county meeting of last week, and I will likely be at the VGCC meeting as well.