States Ron will win.

[dbill27]

So, everyone saw stossel take Bill-o's bet that Ron will win at least one state. I am optimistic that he can win the nomination but that got me thinking... What are Ron's chances to win his home state of Texas? With Rand's support he has to be looking pretty good in winning Kentucky right? What states are most likely to go to Ron? What states does he have no chance in?

[dbill27]

^And i do realize that Ron's "home" state isn't technically Texas since i believe he was born in Pa.

[american.swan]

If Rick Perry enters the race, Rick will win TX, not Paul.

KY is Dr Ron's best chance to win a closed primary, if KY is closed. Nevada is also possible. He did really well there last time. BUT remember the convention! Ron Paul delegates weren't reported, muted, ignored, or counted.

[american.swan]

Right now Ron Paul doesn't have enough delegates who will be willing to swing to his side if "their" candidate drops out.

[freedoms-light]

^And i do realize that Ron's "home" state isn't technically Texas since i believe he was born in Pa.


PA 2008 Primary
Official Results Candidate Votes Percentage
John McCain 594,061 72.86% 74*
Ron Paul 129,246 15.85%
Mike Huckabee* 92,057 11.29%
Total 815,364 100% 74

I believe he broke 20 percent in some counties.

[trey4sports]

So, everyone saw stossel take Bill-o's bet that Ron will win at least one state. I am optimistic that he can win the nomination but that got me thinking... What are Ron's chances to win his home state of Texas? With Rand's support he has to be looking pretty good in winning Kentucky right? What states are most likely to go to Ron? What states does he have no chance in?


I'm not to sure that having Rand in KY is going to provide that big of a bump. I do, however, think that Iowa is where it's at. If we can have an all out blitz of volunteers and bring in lots of $$ then we can win Iowa and thus provide the momentum for sweeping victories

[trey4sports]

PA 2008 Primary
Official Results Candidate Votes Percentage
John McCain 594,061 72.86% 74*
Ron Paul 129,246 15.85%
Mike Huckabee* 92,057 11.29%
Total 815,364 100% 74

I believe he broke 20 percent in some counties.



Unfortunately that was after McCain had locked in the nom.

[dbill27]

I'm not to sure that having Rand in KY is going to provide that big of a bump. I do, however, think that Iowa is where it's at. If we can have an all out blitz of volunteers and bring in lots of $$ then we can win Iowa and thus provide the momentum for sweeping victories

Isn't Rand pretty popular among GOP voters in KY? Either way, yeah I agree Iowa is make or break, I think he has to be top 2 in Iowa. But the question is, what are is chances in Iowa?

[The Dark Knight]

Washington state Caucus results 2008
John McCain 25.9%
Mike Huckabee 23.5
Ron Paul 21.6
Mitt Romney 15.4

We are going to win this time around in Wa state Caucus.

[libertybrewcity]

RON PAUL SECOND PLACE FINISHES:
Nevada
Montana
Pennsylvania
Nebraska
Oregon
Idaho
South Dakota
New Mexico
Northern Mariana Islands

RON PAUL THIRD PLACE FINISHES:
North Dakota
Utah
Alaska
Maine
Kansas
Washington
Virginia
Wisconsin
Vermont
Rhode Island
Ohio
Texas
Mississippi
West Virginia
Kentucky
Indiana
North Carolina
Washington DC
Puerto Rico

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/17/2008primarycounties.png/800px-2008primarycounties.png

[trey4sports]

Isn't Rand pretty popular among GOP voters in KY? Either way, yeah I agree Iowa is make or break, I think he has to be top 2 in Iowa. But the question is, what are is chances in Iowa?

Yeah Rand is very popular but i'm just not sure that support for Rand will = support for Ron, but we'll see. I think his chances in Iowa are really good though. I really believe that Iowa is all about boots-on-the-ground and spending $$

[Keith and stuff]

@Edit I was totally wrong. Heck, Ron could be the next President.

[Sola_Fide]

So, everyone saw stossel take Bill-o's bet that Ron will win at least one state. I am optimistic that he can win the nomination but that got me thinking... What are Ron's chances to win his home state of Texas? With Rand's support he has to be looking pretty good in winning Kentucky right? What states are most likely to go to Ron? What states does he have no chance in?

My own anecdotal evidence would suggest that Ron would not do as well as Rand did in Ky.

The political winds are shifting for sure, but the Ky GOP is probably going to largely vote for a Palin/Huckabee type candidate, sadly.

Rand had a few unique things working for him in Ky. One was Bunning's endorsement as being the true conservative. Another was the rising Tea Party fiscal tidal wave that was sweeping through Ky. Another was the overwhelming grass roots donations for Rand in a not-so-expensive Senate seat race.

The thing that would change my mind about my whole contention is if Phil Moffett wins or is very competitive in the governor's race. That would show me the Kentucky GOP are willing to put aside personalities and focus on constitutional government.

[realtonygoodwin]

None of it matters if he doesn't win South Carolina...we need to work on getting Nikki Haley's and Jim DeMints endorsements.

[dbill27]

Not sure why but I don't think demint would ever rep paul. I think he is enjoying the moderate fame the tea party movement brought him within the gop and I don't think he would throw it away by endorsing someone the mainstream can't stand.

[Bman]

RON PAUL SECOND PLACE FINISHES:
Nevada
Montana
Pennsylvania
Nebraska
Oregon
Idaho
South Dakota
New Mexico
Northern Mariana Islands

RON PAUL THIRD PLACE FINISHES:
North Dakota
Utah
Alaska
Maine
Kansas
Washington
Virginia
Wisconsin
Vermont
Rhode Island
Ohio
Texas
Mississippi
West Virginia
Kentucky
Indiana
North Carolina
Washington DC
Puerto Rico

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/17/2008primarycounties.png/800px-2008primarycounties.png

You know that map could be extremely helpful tailoring what message should be brought to what area.

[libertybrewcity]

You know that map could be extremely helpful tailoring what message should be brought to what area.

bingo. RP won some counties in Maine too!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2008primarycounties.png

[specsaregood]

KY is Dr Ron's best chance to win a closed primary, if KY is closed.

KY won't matter, the nomination will be locked up by then and the voters will just vote for the person that is already the nominee.

[Matt Collins]

I am pretty confident he'll win Nevada.

[TonySutton]

I do not want to "just win a state" so stossel can win a bet against o'reilly. I want to win the nomination so all of us can thumb our noses at the establishment dinosaurs who worked so hard to lock us out last time.

[HarryBrowneLives]

I'd vote for Nevada:collins:

[Johnnymac]

not Massachusetts but ill do my best!

[Echoes]

I do not want to "just win a state" so stossel can win a bet against o'reilly. I want to win the nomination so all of us can thumb our noses at the establishment dinosaurs who worked so hard to lock us out last time.

This.

We've gotta think big, and Ron Paul must be in it to win it.

[trey4sports]

This.

We've gotta think big, and Ron Paul must be in it to win it.



+1

[Michael P]

not Massachusetts but ill do my best!

One of his worst states... but i'm with you trying!

[dbill27]

not Massachusetts but ill do my best!

Is Mass a winner take all state? If so, it seems like a lost cause to waste any resources there, drive to new hampshire to campaign, although mitt will probably get that one to.

[Legend1104]

RON PAUL SECOND PLACE FINISHES:
Nevada
Montana
Pennsylvania
Nebraska
Oregon
Idaho
South Dakota
New Mexico
Northern Mariana Islands

RON PAUL THIRD PLACE FINISHES:
North Dakota
Utah
Alaska
Maine
Kansas
Washington
Virginia
Wisconsin
Vermont
Rhode Island
Ohio
Texas
Mississippi
West Virginia
Kentucky
Indiana
North Carolina
Washington DC
Puerto Rico

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/17/2008primarycounties.png/800px-2008primarycounties.png

It's funny. Back then, I was a Huckabee supporter. By the time the primaries got to MS, Huck had already lost and I just simply skipped the primary.

[Eric21ND]

Is Mass a winner take all state? If so, it seems like a lost cause to waste any resources there, drive to new hampshire to campaign, although mitt will probably get that one to.
We should create a thread listing every state and if they are winner take all or not. We need to organize so people in states like Mass (which are a lost cause) don't spend precious man hours in that state, and actually campaign where it matters.

[Aratus]

not Massachusetts but ill do my best!


One of his worst states... but i'm with you trying!

scott brown now is the most popular politician here,
and he's a romney man to the 100 percentile. if we can
get at least 40% of the GOP primary voters to go to
RON PAUL or a favorite son insted of gentleman mitt, we
might put a psychological dent in romney's N.E base!

[Aratus]

if mitt romney fails at a hammerlock inside mccain's 2008 "greenbelt" on the map, we
need people inside each state's delegations to suggest RON PAUL as an alternative at
the right moments, this was part of the grand strategy at the last GOP convention!!!

[Roy Bleckert]

I do not want to "just win a state" so stossel can win a bet against o'reilly. I want to win the nomination so all of us can thumb our noses at the establishment dinosaurs who worked so hard to lock us out last time.

Victory will Be Sweet !

[Michael P]

We should create a thread listing every state and if they are winner take all or not. We need to organize so people in states like Mass (which are a lost cause) don't spend precious man hours in that state, and actually campaign where it matters.

This gave me an idea. There is a highway underpass right near my house that everyone from RI & CT has to take to get to Cape Cod in the Summer, I should get into a routine of getting a RP sign up every Friday/Saturday during the warm months.

[t0rnado]

if mitt romney fails at a hammerlock inside mccain's 2008 "greenbelt" on the map, we
need people inside each state's delegations to suggest RON PAUL as an alternative at
the right moments, this was part of the grand strategy at the last GOP convention!!!

Having Ron Paul supporters become delegates for Romney and then switching at the RNC would be a good idea if we fail to win enough states.

[kah13176]

We should tailor campaign videos to the areas. Marijuana legalization ads in California, family values and anti-abortion in the South, anti-illegal immigration ads in Arizona perhaps, and 10th amendment ads in all the states that are involved with nullification recently, like Arizona, North Dakota, etc.

[dbill27]

Having Ron Paul supporters become delegates for Romney and then switching at the RNC would be a good idea if we fail to win enough states.

Can you do that?

[South Park Fan]

Can you do that?

If you don't get caught ;)

[IDefendThePlatform]

If you don't get caught ;)

My understanding is that it is legal a lot of the time. I think we need to all assume there will be a "split" convention and try our best to become delegates.

[t0rnado]

Can you do that?

Yes, and like IDefendThePlatform stated, it is legal is most states. The only repercussion is that you might get kicked out of any leadership position you have in the party and probably won't be able to be a delegate again.

That's a small price to pay for Ron Paul winning the Presidency.