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One Last Battle!
03-05-2011, 03:55 PM
Intrade is a website where you can bet on, well, just about anything. You can buy shares in the chances of an event happening, and you gain a portion of the money of those who bet against you if you are correct. You can also sell your shares if you don't think the event will happen.

It is quite a cool idea, actually. You could make a fair amount of money with predictions. Examples of things to put money into include:

Ron Paul winning the 2012 election (http://intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=669534)

Ron Paul announcing at some point in 2012 (going by Matt Collins, this should be a shoe-in) (http://intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=735287)

The US economy going into a recession at some point in 2011 (http://intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=693074)

A Euro member dumping the Euro at some point in 2011 (http://intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=713738)

This is a great chance to put your money where your mouth is, possibly earning money along the way. Furthermore, if you want a political motivation, putting money into Ron Paul winning in 2012 will increase his perceived legitimacy and chances quite a bit, and it isn't even a donation (if you are correct, you will make a TON of money since Ron's shares are pretty cheap right now). Also, some of these are effectively impossible to get wrong (for example, Gaddafi being out of power in Libya before Dec. 31, 2011).

squarepusher
03-05-2011, 04:02 PM
5 shares x .20 cents each, could be some big profits!

South Park Fan
03-05-2011, 04:44 PM
As I've mentioned earlier, notice how the odds of Gaddafi being overthrown have plummeted now that US/NATO intervention looks more likely.

One Last Battle!
03-05-2011, 04:57 PM
75% is still a pretty good chance, IMO. I don't see how Gaddafi is going to hold power for the next year.

Anyway, I would say buying some Ron Paul victory shares is a pretty good idea, even if you don't think he is going to win. We already know we can win straw polls for him, and each straw poll win will make people buy more Paul shares. When he announces (and I am going to go out on a limb and say Matt Collins is right and he WILL run), his value is doubtless going to rise in a big way. Even if you think he won't win, his shares are VERY cheap right now, they are almost certainly going to go up, so you could probably buy them now (20 cents), wait for him to announce and for things to speed up (moneybombs, etc), and then sell once his value is up.

Otherwise, there are some relatively safe bets you can make elsewhere if you don't want to risk it (like gold staying above 1400).

nayjevin
03-05-2011, 05:14 PM
If one were to buy a number of shares betting he wins - and secures profit at some point by selling them off - the profit would come from those who are still betting Ron will win, i.e. RP supporters... right?

One Last Battle!
03-05-2011, 06:02 PM
If one were to buy a number of shares betting he wins - and secures profit at some point by selling them off - the profit would come from those who are still betting Ron will win, i.e. RP supporters... right?

Not necessarily. If Ron Paul wins, then they make a neat profit too. Also, if he is doing sufficiently well, you might be getting the money from people who think he will win, but don't necessarily support him (like the people buying Romney shares). The profit might come from RP supporters, but then they should be buying early while it is still cheap.

At any rate, to warrant a sell off like that you would need to make a very good profit for it to be worthwhile, and would probably keep some shares left over in reserve in case Ron did win.

nayjevin
03-05-2011, 06:24 PM
Not necessarily. If Ron Paul wins, then they make a neat profit too. Also, if he is doing sufficiently well, you might be getting the money from people who think he will win, but don't necessarily support him (like the people buying Romney shares). The profit might come from RP supporters, but then they should be buying early while it is still cheap.

At any rate, to warrant a sell off like that you would need to make a very good profit for it to be worthwhile, and would probably keep some shares left over in reserve in case Ron did win.

It's my understanding that the people who make great money on stuff like this do it on the trigger finger, dude hits a threepointer and they hit enter, guy get's fouled back and sell sell sell. So the profit would only have to be a little bit if you buy alot of shares.

For instance, buy 10,000 Ron to win @ .20 for $2000, sell at .25 cents, make $500. Or is this the 'day trading is easy money' myth?

I see what you mean though, it won't be just RP supporters betting on him. And most of us would ride it out, like I do on my Chiefs :)

April1775
03-05-2011, 06:26 PM
They have
Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012
1.9% chance.

awake
03-05-2011, 06:34 PM
That site looks fun...

One Last Battle!
03-05-2011, 06:53 PM
10,000? The volume on this site is miniscule. 10,000 shares would probably push Ron to about 25% :P

Most of the trading is done with very small amounts of money. The amount of money spent per person is something like 100 dollars. If someone wins, the winners all get 10 dollars per share, and if they lose they get nothing. Meanwhile, they can also sell early if the price is high but they think they won't win, or they can short sell (in which case they make however much money the stock is currently worth if they are correct).

Anyway, a Ron share is about twenty cents, so a hundred of those is two dollars, a thousand is twenty dollars, if you are right and buy a thousand, you get ten thousand dollars (at an initial investment of just 20 bucks). Pretty good deal, eh? Mind, the chances of Ron Paul running and winning ARE pretty low, but it is quite possible, and you can still make a neat profit so long as the value of Paul shares goes above three dollars or so (you can sell enough to pay for the 5$ a month fee and still make a nice profit, leaving some shares behind in case Ron DOES win).

Day trading is definitely not easy, but this is (or at least, the losses are very low and the gains are decent).

Intrade
03-10-2011, 01:42 AM
If one were to buy a number of shares betting he wins - and secures profit at some point by selling them off - the profit would come from those who are still betting Ron will win, i.e. RP supporters... right?

Hi neyjevin,

I saw the discussion having trafficked this forum periodically and decided I had to chime in even at the risk of being considered a public shill.

Intrade is a zero sum platform. If you win someone else must lose. So if you buy say $200 shares worth of RP at 2% and he rises to say 6% as he did in 2008 you could sell your shares at 6% for $600 and secure a $400 profit. However please note this $400 profit would automatically come from the person who sold you the shares originally. Hope this clarifies the situation. The converse would also apply.

Sincerely,

John Delaney
Intrade.

PS. I wonder is there a RP advocacy group in Ireland as I know from the bars at high profile US sporting events, US holidays and friends there is a huge US ex-pat community here? And of course any of you folks ever in Dublin a pleasure to share a beverage or several. ;)

qh4dotcom
03-10-2011, 02:23 AM
Hi neyjevin,

I saw the discussion having trafficked this forum periodically and decided I had to chime in even at the risk of being considered a public shill.

Intrade is a zero sum platform. If you win someone else must lose. So if you buy say $200 shares worth of RP at 2% and he rises to say 6% as he did in 2008 you could sell your shares at 6% for $600 and secure a $400 profit. However please note this $400 profit would automatically come from the person who sold you the shares originally. Hope this clarifies the situation. The converse would also apply.

Sincerely,

John Delaney
Intrade.

PS. I wonder is there a RP advocacy group in Ireland as I know from the bars at high profile US sporting events, US holidays and friends there is a huge US ex-pat community here? And of course any of you folks ever in Dublin a pleasure to share a beverage or several. ;)

Welcome to Liberty Forest...nice 1st post

Dave Aiello
03-10-2011, 02:58 AM
Hi neyjevin,

I saw the discussion having trafficked this forum periodically and decided I had to chime in even at the risk of being considered a public shill.

Intrade is a zero sum platform. If you win someone else must lose. So if you buy say $200 shares worth of RP at 2% and he rises to say 6% as he did in 2008 you could sell your shares at 6% for $600 and secure a $400 profit. However please note this $400 profit would automatically come from the person who sold you the shares originally. Hope this clarifies the situation. The converse would also apply.

Sincerely,

John Delaney
Intrade.

PS. I wonder is there a RP advocacy group in Ireland as I know from the bars at high profile US sporting events, US holidays and friends there is a huge US ex-pat community here? And of course any of you folks ever in Dublin a pleasure to share a beverage or several. ;)

.. as Mr. Delaney attempts to bump up the price of RP so he can short sell shares all day ;)

nayjevin
03-10-2011, 03:55 AM
Hope this clarifies the situation. The converse would also apply.

Yes, I see my misunderstanding. Thanks, and welcome!

Intrade
03-10-2011, 03:58 AM
.. as Mr. Delaney attempts to bump up the price of RP so he can short sell shares all day ;)

I see your ;) and believe you are jesting but least others think this is something I would or could do, I do not and can not. One reason, in addition to it begin unethical is that I and all Intrade employees and associates etc are prohibited from trading on Intrade per our public rules.

Again, I am sensitive to bleat on least it appear I am "marketing". Moderator(s) feel free to remove this reply.

crazyfacedjenkins
03-10-2011, 08:58 AM
.. As mr. Delaney attempts to bump up the price of rp so he can short sell shares all day ;)

hahahahha!!!

nayjevin
03-10-2011, 05:56 PM
I see your ;) and believe you are jesting but least others think this is something I would or could do, I do not and can not. One reason, in addition to it begin unethical is that I and all Intrade employees and associates etc are prohibited from trading on Intrade per our public rules.

Again, I am sensitive to bleat on least it appear I am "marketing". Moderator(s) feel free to remove this reply.

Not at all, glad to have you here. There's a limit of self-promotion but it isn't zero. Thanks for adding to the discussion, and hope you browse around abit.

MozoVote
03-10-2011, 05:59 PM
The problem with Intrade is that there are many people willing to take the opposite side of a trade on Ron Paul winning. His contract tops out around 8%, I remember this from 2008.

South Park Fan
03-10-2011, 08:06 PM
The problem with Intrade is that there are many people willing to take the opposite side of a trade on Ron Paul winning. His contract tops out around 8%, I remember this from 2008.

That's merely a reflection of political reality. If he had a better chance, fewer people would short his stock.

The Dark Knight
03-10-2011, 09:19 PM
It is interesting that Sarah Palin has a 43% chance of running.