Blah, Blah, Blah....

[BLS]

Do we have 500,000 voters?

Do we have 750,000 voters?

Do we have 1,000,000 voters?


Honestly...it doesn't mean sh!t.

If we don't get over 30 Million Voters we ain't got a chance in hell.

30 million voters constitutes 10% of the public.

There are 300 Million people in the US.

Let's say 50% CAN vote, and let's also say only 75% of them vote (which is uber high), that leaves us with 112 million voters in the US.

If we can't get at LEAST 30 million votes, or roughly 1 out of every 4 people to vote for RP, we don't have a chance.

The fact is we are RUNNING OUT OF TIME.

If there is ANYONE you know, who you haven't Ron Pauled...it needs to be done now.

Look at your cell phone address book.
Look at your email address book.

Send them all a message.
Get his name out.

[rainman39393]

we have a better chance than you think. if ron paul is able to win or come in 2nd in an early primary, he will get a ton of media attention, the message will spread like it normally does, and we will win.

[Karsten]

Do we have 500,000 voters?

Do we have 750,000 voters?

Do we have 1,000,000 voters?


Honestly...it doesn't mean sh!t.

If we don't get over 30 Million Voters we ain't got a chance in hell.

30 million voters constitutes 10% of the public.

There are 300 Million people in the US.

Let's say 50% CAN vote, and let's also say only 75% of them vote (which is uber high), that leaves us with 112 million voters in the US.

If we can't get at LEAST 30 million votes, or roughly 1 out of every 4 people to vote for RP, we don't have a chance.

The fact is we are RUNNING OUT OF TIME.

If there is ANYONE you know, who you haven't Ron Pauled...it needs to be done now.

Look at your cell phone address book.
Look at your email address book.

Send them all a message.
Get his name out.

Your math is WAY off, because we are only talking about eligable registered voters who will vote in the republican primary. Of the 300 million Americans, people under 18 cannot vote. Some people eligable are not registered. 1/3rd of the registered voters are Republicans. Out of that pool, a small amount will turn out, probably about 10-25%.

[ronpaulfan]

we have a better chance than you think. if ron paul is able to win or come in 2nd in an early primary, he will get a ton of media attention, the message will spread like it normally does, and we will win.

We can not count on that. We need to inoculate the people with the anti-sheeple vaccine (ie Ron Paul) before Hannity attempts to spin the NH primary as irrelevant.

[Hope]

Okay, now it's time for the real statistics.

In the 2000 Republican Primary, 20,717,198 people voted nationally in the Republican Primaries (source (http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2000/2000presprim.htm)). That is a good baseline to follow for this election (not counting 2004 because obviously less people would feel inclined to vote for a party candidate running re-election). If there are four main candidates who are splitting the majority of the votes between themselves (RP, Romney, Rudy, McCain OR Huckabee depending on whether it's a state like NH or a state like SC) then Ron Paul only needs a little more than five million votes nationwide.

Let me repeat that. If we see a similar turn-out this election year as in 2000, Ron Paul only needs five million votes nationwide.

All that is thrown off a little bit because things are not all equal here. For example, Ron Paul has a much BETTER chance of winning early states because the race will be packed with more candidates. At the same time, it really only seems to matter who wins the first early states because the rest of the nation always follows suit, picking the already decided "winner" of the first five or ten states. So in that respect, Ron Paul has a definite advantage over the other candidates.

On a side note, we also know that registration rates have been steadily rising and currently hover around 75% of the pool of eligible public -- and yet, despite higher registration rates, voting doesn't seem to follow that trend. That's neither here nor there, except to say that if more than half of registered voters don't show up at the primaries, we've got to work our butts off to change that and get ahead of the other guys. :)