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JAHOGS
10-23-2007, 08:07 PM
I was looking at the 2004 primary vote totals and was wondering what kind of vote numbers does everyone think RP can pull?

Back in 2004 for Dems

Kerry 84,377
Dean 57,761


Rep.

Bush 53,962

Looks to me be get around 75,000 we should be in good shape. Would does everyone else think?
uncloned21
10-23-2007, 08:11 PM
If each meetup member = 10+ votes, we are good shape to take NH!
quickmike
10-23-2007, 08:18 PM
If each meetup member = 10+ votes, we are good shape to take NH!

I wouldnt count on that since 9 out of 10 meetup members dont even show up for meetings and events.

Better keep up the hard work in NH. Dont take anything for granted there.
Trassin
10-23-2007, 08:29 PM
You have to remember that the votes will be split up a lot more. With any luck no one from the "top 5" will pull clearly ahead of the others and it will result in them splitting about 1/2 the votes among themselves. Leaving RP with the democrats-turned-paul-supporters, independents, and Regan republicans.
JAHOGS
10-23-2007, 08:31 PM
You have to remember that the votes will be split up a lot more. With any luck no one from the "top 5" will pull clearly ahead of the others and it will result in them splitting about 1/2 the votes among themselves. Leaving RP with the democrats-turned-paul-supporters, independents, and Regan republicans.

So how many votes do you think we need for a first place finish this year.
NewEnd
10-23-2007, 08:32 PM
140,000 for a charged Dem base

Id say 120,000 for a competitive Rep base

33% guarantees victory

Answer:
40,000
ACJohn
10-23-2007, 08:39 PM
2000 Republican results
Candidate Votes % Delegates
John McCain 115,490 49 9
George W. Bush 72,262 30 6
Steve Forbes 30,197 13 2
Alan Keyes 15,196 6 0
Gary Bauer 1,656 1 0
Other 2,001 1 0
Total 236,802 100 17

Source: CNN
Bradley in DC
10-23-2007, 08:41 PM
In DC, analyzed voter results and registration back through the 1996 election to have more confidence in our numbers.