Please speculate on this hypothetical:

[hazek]

Please speculate on this hypothetical:

15mio Americans collectively decide to not pay any taxes in the next fiscal year. What happens?


I have a really good idea and I want to gauge it's validity.

[Yieu]

First of all, that would never happen because too many people fear retribution, plus they are automatically taxed in their paycheck so they can't not be taxed even if they wanted to. But if it really did happen, even though it wouldn't? I imagine a State of Emergency would be declared, and there would be a War on Taxpayers, a crackdown where they audit everyone they think might not have paid, possibly sending armed men along to ensure they receive their money. I could be wrong, but violence tends to be the first reaction of governments to civil disobedience.

[mczerone]

Most likely: 95% of them pay their taxes anyway, and the intended effect of fighting the income tax as a bloc is foiled. The 5% will be prosecuted as normal.

Next most likely: 50% actually go through with it, the government declares them "seditious traitors, free riders, and harbingers of a lawless chaos". The govt pulls a "if you suspect your neighbors didn't pay their fair share, report them" campaign, and prints enough money to pay legions of tax investigators to scour the land. These investigators will jail the non compliant, and will suck the blood out of those who heed their demands so as to make up the difference lost on those who get away with not paying. The govt will expand its debt and monetary operations, and will hasten, if not outright trigger, uncontrollable inflation. The govt will go into its death throes, and will either collapse and leave a dangerous power vacuum that will be filled by some popular tyranny or emerge victorious over the tax revolt as a stronger, more tyrannical force than before.

Least likely: Most people go through with the tax revolt, the government finds that it would be ridiculously expensive to prosecute them all, so they let them get away with it. As word spreads, more people don't pay in the following year, and after 3 or four years the govt must abdicate powers back to the states and to the people. The lack of central monetary power allows states to form "sub-unions" of 3-6 states each that effectively resolves disputes between two states and between states and their people.

[hazek]

Interesting. Keep them coming please!

[Yieu]

Next most likely: 50% actually go through with it, the government declares them "seditious traitors, free riders, and harbingers of a lawless chaos". The govt pulls a "if you suspect your neighbors didn't pay their fair share, report them" campaign, and prints enough money to pay legions of tax investigators to scour the land. These investigators will jail the non compliant, and will suck the blood out of those who heed their demands so as to make up the difference lost on those who get away with not paying.

It is kind of funny, yet sad, because it would cost them more to send the armed men to route out the non-compliers than they would get back in taxes from the armed adventure into the populace -- yet they would still feel it to be worth it, to "put them in their place", regardless of whether it costs more than they'll bring in from it.

[mczerone]

It is kind of funny, yet sad, because it would cost them more to send the armed men to route out the non-compliers than they would get back in taxes from the armed adventure into the populace -- yet they would still feel it to be worth it, to "put them in their place", regardless of whether it costs more than they'll bring in from it.

Just like the drug war: it's not about economic incentives, it's not about a vision of a better society. Its only about exercising power, about jailing those who don't obey and punishing people not for what they did wrong but because they were insubordinate.

And just like the census, they'll claim that the tax-enforcement plan will be wondrous because it "creates jobs".

[pcosmar]

http://dancingczars.files.wordpress.com/2010/02/sirs.jpg?w=500&h=240

Could be interesting.

[Austrian Econ Disciple]

I'd imagine the same thing that happened in 1861. Lincoln warned the Southerners that if they refused to pay the taxes and tariffs they would be invaded. Look what happened. If there is one thing the Government hates more than anything it is the cattle awakening to the reality. Government is based on fear and lies wrapped in ideology and idology. Break that and it crumbles, but it only knows violence, so before it crumbles it gets a whole heck of a lot of violent.

[Yieu]

Just like the drug war: it's not about economic incentives, it's not about a vision of a better society. Its only about exercising power, about jailing those who don't obey and punishing people not for what they did wrong but because they were insubordinate.

And just like the census, they'll claim that the tax-enforcement plan will be wondrous because it "creates jobs".

It is strange that there is such a fixation on being "authority" and forcing people to "obey" or be punished, just for the sake of being in power and for no legitimate reason other than power and ego and dreams of being authority. The very term "insubordination" is offensive, it implies that we are lesser than them.

The only real authority is God, and no man or government can change that, no matter how much legislative ink is used or how many bullets are fired. So it seems odd to me to even try or desire to "exert authority" over innocent people who have done no harm.

[hazek]

Does a bigger number change your speculations?

[Yieu]

Does a bigger number change your speculations?

Not really, because wouldn't happen anyway for reasons posted above.

[Pericles]

If that 15 million included the 371 billionaires and 7.8 million millionaires then the resultes would be interested indeed. If the 16 million was made up of the under $30K wage earners, nobody would notice except the IRS might wonder at how to create more work.

[tangent4ronpaul]

THe IRS would stat adding interest and fines to their files, while the Industrial Prison Complex would start building a bunch of new prisons.

[hazek]

So basically everyone of you disagrees with Marc Stevens point at the 4:10 mark in:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsGIIJap56Q