PPP: Ron Paul at 8% Nationally

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/romney-and-birthers.html


That pushes him into a second place finish overall at 17% with Mike Huckabee again leading the way this month at 20%. Palin's third with 15%, followed by Gingrich at 12%, Ron Paul at 8%, Mitch Daniels and Tim Pawlenty at 4%, and John Thune at 1%.

Overall numbers:

Mike Huckabee: 20%
Mitt Romney: 17%
Sarah Palin: 15%
Newt Gingrich: 12%
Ron Paul: 8%
Mitch Daniels: 4%
Tim Pawlenty: 4%
John Thune: 1%

[low preference guy]

Mike Huckabee: 20% Might stay at Fox
Mitt Romney: 17% Obamacare-lite
Sarah Palin: 15% Might write books and make tons of money
Newt Gingrich: 12%
Ron Paul: 8%

Will it be Paul vs. Gingrich?

[jtstellar]

decent starting point i think.. the hard part now may be to figure out ways to present our teens and 20yr olds to draw votes from older voters without appearing as total turn-offs

[TheTyke]

Yeeehhaaww!! Let's get this thing started!

[RonPaulFanInGA]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/republican-poll-preview.html


-Want to know just how unrepresentative of the GOP base CPAC straw poll voters are? Among actual Republican primary voters only 30% have a favorable opinion of Ron Paul to 37% who view him in a negative light. Outside of his passionate but small following most Republicans actually dislike Paul (and I imagine wish he would go away.)

Stupid PPP. :rolleyes:

It is nice though to see Palin gets a lame 15% despite the highest name-ID (90%) and favorable ratings in their polls. Not even Republicans believe Dan Quayle with a rack can be President.

[MRoCkEd]

Not bad

[BrendenR]

What were his numbers this time in 07?

I'd imagine 2-4%?

[malkusm]

What were his numbers this time in 07?

I'd imagine 2-4%?

Try somewhere between 0% and 1%.

[TheTyke]

What were his numbers this time in 07?

I'd imagine 2-4%?

LESS than 2% as I remember. We barely registered. :D

[hazek]

What were his numbers this time in 07?

I'd imagine 2-4%?

I think below 1%

[TonySutton]

hahaha Donald Trump unfavorables is 56% and he thinks he is electable?

[Austin]

I hope Huckabee stays at Fox. Based on the extra weight he's put on, I'd say he's pretty happy there. He takes away a good amount of votes from Paul, mostly the evangelical base and folks that want to see the IRS go extinct.

[Austin]

What were his numbers this time in 07?

I'd imagine 2-4%?

Gallup — 2007
3/27/07 — 1%
4/4/2007 — 2%
4/14/2007 — 2%
6/13/2007 — 2%
7/14/2007 — 3%
8/4/2007 — 2%
8/15/2007 — 3%
9/8/2007 — 1%
9/15/2007 — 4%
10/6/2007 — 2%
10/13/2007 — 5%
11/3/2007 — 1%
11/13/2007 — 5%
12/1/2007 — 4%
12/15/2007 — 3%

[sailingaway]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/republican-poll-preview.html



Stupid PPP. :rolleyes:

It is nice though to see Palin gets a lame 15% despite the highest name-ID (90%) and favorable ratings in their polls. Not even Republicans believe Dan Quayle with a rack can be President.

If this was polled right after CPAC there might have been blowback from the heckling and he might actually do better in future polls.

[tsai3904]

PPP surveyed 400 Republican primary voters nationwide from February 11th to 13th.

CPAC was February 10th to 12th.

[erowe1]

Will it be Paul vs. Gingrich?

No, it won't. Don't underestimate the power the party bigwigs have to propel someone into the lead quickly. They could easily wait until this summer and watch how things play out and then pick either Daniels or Pawlenty as their guy and line up behind them with all the major endorsements, followed by the media anointing them the front runner/s, followed by a windfall of donations from a large number of very wealthy and influential people and organizations, followed by the public taking for granted that they really are the front runner/s and not wanting to support any of those other candidates who can't win.

They haven't really shown their cards yet. But usually, when the party establishment comes to a consensus that it's somebody's turn to get the nomination, that somebody ends up winning it.

My hunch is that Pawlenty will be the one. The thing Daniels has going against him is that he's short. And they're not going to want to have a short guy up there on stage with Obama in the debates.

[jtstellar]

now perhaps more energy needs to be reallocated from the effort for recognition into striving for appeal.. there needs to be more manners now on because it's now a different chess game

the past rowdiness had its place to strive for name recognition, but from this point on what is required is to draw in voters from different spectrum who already recognize rp's name. chanting=recognition.. it's therefore in the past.

[Fredom101]

I actually understand why people fall for Romney (slick, good looking, hair), Huckabee (he poses as a fundamentalist so he will get that vote), and Palin (she's a woman, so automatically a star), but I see absolutely NO appeal with Newt. I think he just gets selected in these polls because people know his name, and he was the alleged "star" of the so-called Republican Revolution of the late-90's.

My guess is it will either be Romney or none of the above, they will either pull someone out of nowhere (like Fred Thompson) and claim him to be the front-runner, or they will resurrect one of the 2nd tier neocons (like they did with McCain last time) and let Obama win it again.

[KramerDSP]

I think below 1%

I did some Google time frame searches.

May 7, 2007 - PPP - "Why are you ignoring Ron Paul?"

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2007/05/ron-paul-for-president.html

December of 2007 - PPP -

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2007/08/nc-vs-nation.html
http://www.pollster.com/AUSTopReps.png

The second link comes from the first link, which is dated August of 2007. The second link is a graph dated December of 2007 and lists trends. RP has 4.8% of the vote on that graph, but it looks like he was at 1-2% until the money bombs.

Nov 3, 2008 - PPP - Obama 48, McCain 47, Paul 4 (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/montana-results.html)


It looks like the race for President in Montana is a complete tossup. What's less clear is that it can be attributed to Ron Paul's spot on the ballot in the state.

Paul is actually pulling equally from Democrats and Republicans- getting 2% of each of their votes- while polling at 9% with independents.

[KramerDSP]

No, it won't. Don't underestimate the power the party bigwigs have to propel someone into the lead quickly. They could easily wait until this summer and watch how things play out and then pick either Daniels or Pawlenty as their guy and line up behind them with all the major endorsements, followed by the media anointing them the front runner/s, followed by a windfall of donations from a large number of very wealthy and influential people and organizations, followed by the public taking for granted that they really are the front runner/s and not wanting to support any of those other candidates who can't win.

They haven't really shown their cards yet. But usually, when the party establishment comes to a consensus that it's somebody's turn to get the nomination, that somebody ends up winning it.

My hunch is that Pawlenty will be the one. The thing Daniels has going against him is that he's short. And they're not going to want to have a short guy up there on stage with Obama in the debates.

NOBODY is talking about Patreaus anymore. I am terrified of a Patreaus Presidency. All he would have to do is resign in June or July and say "I've had it, and I am running for President". The GOP neocon base would go GAGA.

[low preference guy]

My hunch is that Pawlenty will be the one. The thing Daniels has going against him is that he's short. And they're not going to want to have a short guy up there on stage with Obama in the debates.

Was Daniels the one who wanted a "truce" on social issues?

And Pawlenty is awful. He vetoed a bill to legalize medical marijuana as governor.

[erowe1]

Was Daniels the one who wanted a "truce" on social issues?


I think so. I have only heard that line mentioned in the background of radio shows I wasn't listening closely to. But it's the kind of thing Daniels has said in the past, and it goes along with his general approach. He's cooperated enough with social conservatives in Indiana for them to consider him an ally, but he's tried hard to keep those issues from being the ones he's identified with. I don't think that will kill his chances. If he were positively pro-choice or pro-gay marriage, it would kill his chances. But he's not. Any conservative who finds McCain acceptable will find Daniels more than acceptable, especially if he gets endorsements from Mike Pence and others they idolize, which could easily happen.

[malkusm]

"When it comes to bullies, might makes right." -Tim Pawlenty
"How would we feel if other countries did this to us?" -Ron Paul, 20 minutes later

This sums up CPAC in a nutshell.

[wormyguy]

51% of Republicans are birthers? Okay, PPP has officially replaced Research2000 as Democratic joke pollster of choice.

[AlexMerced]

51% of Republicans are birthers? Okay, PPP has officially replaced Research2000 as Democratic joke pollster of choice.

wouldn't be surprised, a lot of freaking people are birthers... I don't quite get it, a birth certificate doesn't change the fact that plurality of voters voted for Obama and want him to be president. I'm more concerned with changing voters views on policy than demonizing one figure, cause he'd just get replaced with a clone so I rather just get straight to the point and talk philosophy.

[Deborah K]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/republican-poll-preview.html


-Want to know just how unrepresentative of the GOP base CPAC straw poll voters are? Among actual Republican primary voters only 30% have a favorable opinion of Ron Paul to 37% who view him in a negative light. Outside of his passionate but small following most Republicans actually dislike Paul (and I imagine wish he would go away.)

Stupid PPP. :rolleyes:

It is nice though to see Palin gets a lame 15% despite the highest name-ID (90%) and favorable ratings in their polls. Not even Republicans believe Dan Quayle with a rack can be President.

Like it or not, we have to work to change those stats regarding the 37% who dislike him. That is due entirely to the MSM. Most people are media-led, which is why we really need to rethink our strategy this time.

[AlexMerced]

Like it or not, we have to work to change those stats regarding the 37% who dislike him. That is due entirely to the MSM. Most people are media-led, which is why we really need to rethink our strategy this time.

I agree, usally just by clarifying Ron Pauls positions most people I meet who don't like Paul become very intrigued afterwards.

This is why we must all learn learn learn and sharpen are wits to handle this kind of thing, if Paul can win is dependant on US.

If he wins, it'll be because we've learned how to advocate better, we must learn learn learn.

[Matt Collins]

Name recognition isn't a problem this time. He's on the news almost daily. And his polling is higher now than it was after 2 years of campaigning back in 2008. We are starting where we left off last time, but better.

[Maximus]

I think we can get his numbers with women up if we have commercials with Ron talking about him delivering 5,000 babies and being an OBGYN.

That and Oprah... and the View... (if the View lets OReilly on, they got to let Paul on)

[RonPaulCult]

I think we can get his numbers with women up if we have commercials with Ron talking about him delivering 5,000 babies and being an OBGYN.

That and Oprah... and the View... (if the View lets OReilly on, they got to let Paul on)

He's been on the view. Maybe even twice. During the 2008 election he was on and it didn't go very well because most of those chicks are pro-choice and they were hammering him about abortion. He was in unfriendly waters.

[TomtheTinker]

I'll call it now....Pawlenty/West 2012 or Pawlenty/Rubio 2012

[The Dark Knight]

This thing is wide open, time to get to work! Money Bomb on Presidents day!

[Fredom101]

Romney, Newt, and Palin are old news, nobody is really excited about them anymore, even though they will vote for them.

What will happen now they will float a new star candidate soon, like a Rudy (but not him), maybe Pawlenty, and they will call him the front-runner. If nobody seems to be latching on, they will bring out another "star" candidate in a few months, but they will keep the old one in the spotlight too. So they will have 2 "leaders", and they will still have Romney-Palin-Newt as backups if their chosen stars fail to excite the base. It's a no-lose strategy, even if Paul gains traction, they will have all these names in the media on a daily basis, and even if everyone fails to excite GOP voters, they will stage an incident and make Obama a hero, and give him another 4 years.

[trey4sports]

I think we can get his numbers with women up if we have commercials with Ron talking about him delivering 5,000 babies and being an OBGYN.

That and Oprah... and the View... (if the View lets OReilly on, they got to let Paul on)

oprah, the view, the talk, maybe a guest appearance in a soap? lol

[Libertea Party]

That's about 1,649,087 Republican primary voters out of a total of 20,613,585 (http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R.phtml) in '08. My guess is that these Paul voters are more "tuned in" to Ron Paul and would be more willing to be activists and donate.

[rich34]

Folks, this is very good news. I'm tellin ya, I've been here since just about the beginning. Paul never really polled much over 2 to 3 percent nationally even heading into the January of 2008. Obviously he was blackballed very severally and certain peeps even caught their asses and posted this on youtube, but it could now be at the point to where they can no longer do that. This is a GREAT starting point, we just gotta keep pressing on!!

[nobody's_hero]

"Mitt Romney 17% obamacare-lite"

Sadly, Massachusetts-care does not seem to be a deterrent to some short-termed memory Republicans. I don't think we can rule him out.

[Eric21ND]

This is a great starting point. Once we show Ron is viable say in the 15% range through promotion of him in the early states, I think many people will jump on the band wagon.

[Thomas]

way better than last time

[olehounddog]

When I woke up to Ron it was 1%. That was the arguement the neocons used.

[RP Supporter]

Not sure this has been discussed, but looking at the crosstabs, Paul actually LEADS among independents who vote in the Republican primary with 19%. Romney and Palin follow with 17% and 15% respectively. If the movement targets independents like it did last time(And encourages them to register Republican) Paul might actually have a chance at winning this. It gets even better if Palin decides not to run, as I think we'd pick up a lot of her supporters who are attracted to her perceived "anti establishment" creds.

[Austin]

Not sure this has been discussed, but looking at the crosstabs, Paul actually LEADS among independents who vote in the Republican primary with 19%. Romney and Palin follow with 17% and 15% respectively. If the movement targets independents like it did last time(And encourages them to register Republican) Paul might actually have a chance at winning this. It gets even better if Palin decides not to run, as I think we'd pick up a lot of her supporters who are attracted to her perceived "anti establishment" creds.

Awesome, thanks for pointing that out.

I did a little research on national polls from 2007.

In January 2007, CNN was the only major pollster to include Ron in their poll, in which he got 1%. Rasmussen and PPP included Ron in their polls a total of 3 times in January 2011, in which Ron averaged 7%.

In February 2007, ABC News, Marist, and Quinnipiac did polls with Ron, in which he got 1%. PPP has done 1 poll in February 2011, and Ron got 8%.

We have a much larger base this time around. It's exciting to think about how much more the base can grow over the next 2 years. Ron Paul 2012!