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View Full Version : Debt now equals total U.S. economy




JacobG18
02-14-2011, 12:25 PM
President Obama projects that the gross federal debt will top $15 trillion this year, officially equalling the size of the entire U.S. economy, and will jump to nearly $21 trillion in five years’ time.

Amid the other staggering numbers in the budget Mr. Obama sent to Congress on Monday, the debt stands out — both because Congress will need to vote to raise the debt limit later this year, and because the numbers are so large.

Mr. Obama‘s budget said 2011 will see the biggest one-year jump in debt in history, or nearly $2 trillion in a single year. And the administration says it will reach $15.476 trillion by Sept. 30, the end of the fiscal year, to reach 102.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) — the first time since World War II that dubious figure has been reached.

In one often-cited study, two economists have argued that when gross debt passes 90 percent it hinders overall economic growth.

The president’s budget said debt as a percentage of GDP will top out at 106 percent in 2013, but only if the economy booms.

“I still don’t see a sense of urgency from the president about the massive federal debt,” said Sen. Lamar Alexander, Tennessee Republican. “His budget calls for too much government borrowing – even though the debt is already at a level that makes it harder to create private-sector jobs.”

Speaking on MSNBC on Monday, Jacob “Jack” Lew, the White House budget director, said their long-term plan to lower deficits will stabilize the debt.

“When we came into office, when President Obama took office, the deficit was climbing to over 10 percent of the economy. We have a plan that would bring it down to 3 percent,” he said. “That is the most rapid reduction in the deficit in history. It is what we have to do to be able to say we’re paying our bills and we’re not adding to the debt.”

The administration said debt as a percentage of GDP will stabilize at about 105 percent in the middle of this decade, though those calculations assume economic growth levels significantly above projections of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.

The government measures debt several ways. Debt held by the public includes the money borrowed from Social Security’s trust fund.

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http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/feb/14/debt-now-equals-total-us-economy/

PeacePlan
02-14-2011, 12:32 PM
I have heard it said on CNBC (not a good source I know) that when the debt reaches the GDP it is too late and there will be no way to ever recover. Looks like we have arrived.............

AZKing
02-14-2011, 12:32 PM
Quick! Refi your house and put all your fiat in gold ;)

Seriously, the dollar crisis is so close that it's ridiculous.

PeacePlan
02-14-2011, 12:36 PM
Quick! Refi your house and put all your fiat in gold ;)

Seriously, the dollar crisis is so close that it's ridiculous.

Have to agree with you - the rest of the world will soon see us as a very bad risk and no longer finance us. Then the dollar goes.

RyanRSheets
02-14-2011, 01:14 PM
I have heard it said on CNBC (not a good source I know) that when the debt reaches the GDP it is too late and there will be no way to ever recover. Looks like we have arrived.............

Eh, that's kind of superstitious. It's definitely a bad omen for our debt to be a full year's GNP, but I don't think there's a magical line in the sand. It will probably fully collapse when the Fed stops buying treasuries, which will be the day Ron Paul is elected and they will paint it as his fault.

Kludge
02-14-2011, 01:53 PM
Eh, that's kind of superstitious. It's definitely a bad omen for our debt to be a full year's GNP, but I don't think there's a magical line in the sand. It will probably fully collapse when the Fed stops buying treasuries, which will be the day Ron Paul is elected and they will paint it as his fault.

Milestone numbers are important because the value of currency (especially fiat currency like the USD) relies almost entirely on confidence. When there is no confidence in the USD's potential worth or a belief the USD is overvalued, people will switch to other currencies, raise prices, and government's will start pulling out of the USD, which is when it will become worthless.

Very similar to a bank run situation. Say one year there're $12.5b in assets and 12.4b in liabilities. Next year, there's 15.4b in assets and 15.5b in liabilities. Not really much fundamental change, but now it's technically insolvent, which is when people are'na panic, withdraw all their money, and thus create a real crisis.

Noob
02-14-2011, 03:56 PM
Reject Any and All Increases to the Debt Ceiling.

https://fs8.formsite.com/cfiforg/form746/secure_index.html

HOLLYWOOD
02-14-2011, 03:58 PM
Inflation baby... strap-in!

Grubb556
02-14-2011, 04:17 PM
I'm confused on how public debt is measured, because on wikipedia it says the USA's public debt is about 60% of its GDP, but says its total public and private debt is about 100% of GDP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_debt

Kludge
02-14-2011, 04:25 PM
I'm confused on how public debt is measured, because on wikipedia it says the USA's public debt is about 60% of its GDP, but says its total public and private debt is about 100% of GDP.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/External_debt
My understanding is
public debt = debt in the form of US treasuries (held domestically?)
external ("priavte") debt = owed to foreign companies (banks, governments)