View Full Version : Poll: Gary Johnson leads Democrats in an open seat race for New Mexico Senator
Libertea Party
02-08-2011, 12:52 PM
If Bingaman retires and it's an open seat he's the GOP's best candidate. PPP says it all (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/02/bingaman-would-be-safe-open-seat.html):
We tested former Governor Gary Johnson, Congressman Steve Pearce, and former Congresswoman Heather Wilson against Bingaman. He easily dispatches all of them, leading Johnson by 11 points at 51-40, Wilson by 19 points at 56-37, and Pearce by 23 points at 57-34.
...
Johnson is by far the most intriguing potential entrant on the Republican side. He's popular with 44% of voters holding a positive view of him to just 32% with a negative one. What's unique about his numbers is that there's almost no variation across party lines- 46% of independents, 44% of Democrats, and 43% of Republicans see him favorably. His unusual views on some issues have had the effect of making him unusually popular for a Republican with Democrats, but also unusually unpopular for a Republican with Republicans. If he could get through a Republican primary his crossover support might make him a pretty formidable candidate but doing that could be an uphill battle.
If Republicans want to win the state in an open seat situation Johnson might be the way to go though- he leads both Democratic House members in hypothetical contests, 44-43 over Martin Heinrich and 45-40 over Ben Ray Lujan. The more traditional potential candidates of Pearce and Wilson meanwhile would start out well behind the Democratic duo. Heinrich leads Pearce 53-38 and Wilson 50-39 in head to head match ups and Lujan leads Pearce 49-37 and Wilson 48-40.
Johnson for Senate (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?248281-Gary-Johnson-in-2012...-for-US-Senate)!
Stary Hickory
02-08-2011, 12:53 PM
I hope he could pull this out, that would be yet another great senator. I hope Johnson considers this.
Libertea Party
02-08-2011, 01:03 PM
Even if Bingaman stays in here's what happened in Ohio (http://www.nrsc.org/nrsc-statement-perspective-on-new-ohio-senate-poll):
February 4, 2009 - Democrats On Top In Early Look At 2010 Ohio Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds Both Republicans trail either of the two leading Democratic candidates, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher or Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, by almost identical double-digit margins.... In trial heats between the leading Democratic and Republican Senate candidates, Fisher defeats Portman 42 - 27 percent, with 29 percent undecided....Ohio remains pretty blue these days, given Gov. Ted Strickland's high approval ratings in past polls and the fact that President Barack Obama carried the state easily, and it shows in the early Senate numbers," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
TWENTY-ONE MONTHS LATER....
October 20, 2010 - Portman Cruising To Big Win In Ohio Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds Republican Rob Portman heads into the home stretch with a 55 - 34 percent likely voter lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in the race for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
And more damning is this from what PPP said about Feingold in June 2009 (http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/06/feingold-in-good-shape.html):
Feingold in good shape
from Public Policy Polling by Tom Jensen
Russ Feingold has a good approval rating and a double digit lead over his seemingly strongest potential 2010 opponent, who doesn't appear likely to run anyway.
53% of Wisconsin voters approve of the job Feingold is doing with just 36% disapproving. Of the 30 or so Senators PPP has measured approval ratings for in the last year that puts Feingold in the top ten for popularity.
He has 80% approval from Democrats, 20% from Republicans, and a 50/37 spread with independents.
In a hypothetical contest against Congressman Paul Ryan, Feingold leads 51-39. That 12 point lead is identical to his winning margin in 2004 and speaks to the fact that while he has enough detractors that he's not likely to top 60% unless Republicans don't make any effort at all, his position is strong enough that he won't be a top GOP target next year either.
Barack Obama has a 55% approval rating, highlighted by a 65% approval mark from the voters under 30 who were so pivotal to his surprisingly lopsided victory in the state's primary last year. Herb Kohl has a solid 50/36 approval breakdown as well.
Full results here.
Ron Johnson beat Feingold by 5 points and it would have been more had Feingold been a generic Democrat with no grassroots base like Bingaman is. Feingold had a passionate following in Wisconsin from what I've seen.
Maximus
02-08-2011, 01:07 PM
This would be great, open seat and a solid voice for liberty in the Senate? Say no more, let's get behind this!
low preference guy
02-08-2011, 01:11 PM
Hopefully Gary watched Rand so he can realize Senators also have fun.
hazek
02-08-2011, 01:13 PM
I think this is a much better idea for Garry instead of a presidency shot.
Libertea Party
02-08-2011, 03:09 PM
More coverage on the PPP poll. All focus on incumbent Bingaman's lead which as I pointed out above won't matter if the economy doesn't improve. Ask Feingold, Lee Fisher, Jack Conway, etc. all of which seemed safe in early 2009.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/142691-poll-sen-bingaman-posts-double-digit-leads-over-potential-rivals
http://newmexicoindependent.com/68805/polling-shows-bingaman-is-a-near-lock-for-re-election
http://www.nmpolitics.net/index/2011/02/poll-bingaman-in-good-position-if-he-runs-again/
Liberty_Mike
02-08-2011, 03:13 PM
I would love to see Johnson in the Senate!
Kotin
02-08-2011, 03:20 PM
Johnson if you have any brains at all, you will do this.
DO IT!
college4life
02-08-2011, 03:38 PM
yea johnson needs to do this. i'm not knocking the guy one bit, but he seems to think he is too good for a senate seat right now. we could really start turning the tide if we got him in the senate instead of running a fruitless pres campaign
ItsTime
02-08-2011, 03:44 PM
Run Gary Run!
trey4sports
02-08-2011, 03:44 PM
I think Gary would do great in a Senate run, however, if Ron doesn't run we need him on a national stage
MikeStanart
02-08-2011, 03:59 PM
I don't support a Johnson presidential run, but I will absolutely get behind a Johnson senate run!
Johnson for Senate!
A chance to break the false left-right paradigm? :)
MRoCkEd
02-08-2011, 04:24 PM
Gary for senate!
Slutter McGee
02-08-2011, 04:25 PM
I don't support a Johnson presidential run, but I will absolutely get behind a Johnson senate run!
Johnson for Senate!
Johnson has some time. If Paul doesnt run, then I would hope he would run for President. If for nothing else, to have one liberty candidate on the stage.
If Ron does run, Johnson has to realize that a senate seat helps presidential aspirations a lot.
Slutter McGee
freshjiva
02-08-2011, 04:44 PM
When was the last time we had a Senator who was a former Governor? Has it ever happened before?
That being said, this would be a tremendous boost for the Liberty movement to have Gary in the Senate.
Imagine a Rand and Gary duo to push for ending foreign aid, bringing the troops home and ending the wars, rolling back the deadly drug wars, cutting taxes, and most importantly, AUDITING THE FED and pushing toward a gold standard!
I'd definitely donate to his campaign.
Liberty_Mike
02-08-2011, 04:56 PM
When was the last time we had a Senator who was a former Governor? Has it ever happened before?
That being said, this would be a tremendous boost for the Liberty movement to have Gary in the Senate.
Imagine a Rand and Gary duo to push for ending foreign aid, bringing the troops home and ending the wars, rolling back the deadly drug wars, cutting taxes, and most importantly, AUDITING THE FED and pushing toward a gold standard!
I'd definitely donate to his campaign.
And imagine if Schiff somehow got in in 2012 to join them..
Bergie Bergeron
02-08-2011, 05:22 PM
And imagine if Schiff somehow got in in 2012 to join them..
He'd have a shot, just not in Connecticut.
Sola_Fide
02-08-2011, 05:26 PM
Gary, stop being a major prick with this presidential BS in 2012 and run for this Senate seat!
Austin
02-08-2011, 05:29 PM
Gary, do it!
As others have said, this is a campaign I would definitely donate to.
Sola_Fide
02-08-2011, 05:31 PM
We should e-mail bomb Gary to tell him that this is something we would support with our dollars.
libertybrewcity
02-08-2011, 06:57 PM
I really don't understand why GJ won't run for senate. i have had faith in a lot of long shot candidates including John Dennis and Kokesh, but I doubt GJ will will be able to even get one delegate from one state.
I've heard the bs from his followers that he is "too much of a leader", but being a senator is being one hell of leader to me and probably to the rest of the country. He can be a voice heard for a few months before he drops out or a voice heard for 6 years+.
I really will never understand what he is thinking.
libertybrewcity
02-08-2011, 06:59 PM
He is polling 11 POINTS ahead of the Dem!!! This was more than Rand for a while. He should take advantage of his conservative credentials before the New Mexico establishment throws him away like the country did to Ventura. (with all due respect..lol)
Sola_Fide
02-08-2011, 07:01 PM
I really don't understand why GJ won't run for senate. i have had faith in a lot of long shot candidates including John Dennis and Kokesh, but I doubt GJ will will be able to Ieven get one delegate from one state.
I've heard the bs from his followers that he is "too much of a leader", but being a senator is being one hell of leader to me and probably to the rest of the country. He can be a voice heard for a few months before he drops out or a voice heard for 6 years+.
I really will never understand what he is thinking.
+:collins:
GJ would be one hell of a national voice in the Senate. Why he wouldn't run for this seat is crazy to me...
Remember what Rand Paul said on the night he won, "The Senate is the most deliberative body in the world." He's right. There are several former Governors who have taken up camp in the Senate and Gary would be great. As stated previously, he has no chance in a Presidential race, Ron Paul or not. If he wins the Senate in 2012, he can run for President in 2016 no problem. An email bomb or something should be done so he knows we're completely behind him in the Senate race.
Also, thanks to everyone who helped get him polled in the first place.
low preference guy
02-08-2011, 09:48 PM
Remember what Rand Paul said on the night he won, "The Senate is the most deliberative body in the world."
For some reason I took that as ironic and thought he was mocking the Senate.
Note also that the Senate is usually referred to as the "world's greatest deliberative body" not the "world's most deliberative body", which is what Rand said. I'd be surprised if it was an accident. You can hardly say the Senate is the world's greatest deliberative body with a straight face. It's a body almost full of complete morons.
Liberty_Mike
02-08-2011, 10:38 PM
Ok, can the TS create a poll asking how many people here are in favor of Johnson running for Senate?? I think the large majority of the people here would support him. He would also get the RLC on his side I'm sure.
Ok, can the TS create a poll asking how many people here are in favor of Johnson running for Senate?? I think the large majority of the people here would support him. He would also get the RLC on his side I'm sure.
The important point is we'd support him monetarily. Virtually all of us would vote for Ron over him if he runs for President, making that run pointless. He would be our best chance of the cycle to win a Senate seat and we know where he stands on a lot of issues, so we don't have to play guessing games wondering what his position on pot is, for example.
LPG: I may have gotten that one wrong, I haven't listened to the speech in a while, so I probably got the words mixed up. You mean the 74 Senators who voted for the bailout are morons? But they were saving us from the collapse of the world!?!?!? ...*sigh*
Libertea Party
02-08-2011, 11:00 PM
He is polling 11 POINTS ahead of the Dem!!! This was more than Rand for a while. He should take advantage of his conservative credentials before the New Mexico establishment throws him away like the country did to Ventura. (with all due respect..lol)
He's actually 11 points behind the incumbent Democrat Bingaman. In an open race with likely Democratic candidates he's slightly ahead. Again even if Bingaman stays in that 11 point lead doesn't mean much this early in the cycle (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?278448-Poll-Gary-Johnson-leads-Democrats-in-an-open-seat-race-for-New-Mexico-Senator&p=3098849&viewfull=1#post3098849).
He's actually 11 points behind the incumbent Democrat Bingaman. In an open race with likely Democratic candidates he's slightly ahead. Again even if Bingaman stays in that 11 point lead doesn't mean much this early in the cycle (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?278448-Poll-Gary-Johnson-leads-Democrats-in-an-open-seat-race-for-New-Mexico-Senator&p=3098849&viewfull=1#post3098849).
And Gary could probably out-fundraise Bingaman if we help and Gary's numbers can only go up while Bingaman's are where they are.
A GJ senate run would be fantastic and would be a race that I and probably many others would put money behind. The problem is that the guy is already on the campaign trail for president. What are the odds of him ditching that and considering a senate run? :confused:
low preference guy
02-08-2011, 11:09 PM
A GJ senate run would be fantastic and would be a race that I and probably many others would put money behind. The problem is that the guy is already on the campaign trail for president. What are the odds of him ditching that and considering a senate run? :confused:
I think 2 factors will make more likely for Gary Johnson to run for Senate:
1. Ron Paul announcing his candidacy
2. Polls showing he has a great shot at winning a Senate seat.
Libertea Party
02-08-2011, 11:14 PM
And Gary could probably out-fundraise Bingaman if we help and Gary's numbers can only go up while Bingaman's are where they are.
It looks like it'll be just as expensive as Kentucky was (http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2010&id=KYS2):
Bingaman raised 4.1 Million in an uncompetitive race in 2006 (47% out-of-state): http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2006&id=NMS1
Udall spent almost 8 million in 2008 (55% out-of-state): http://www.opensecrets.org/races/geog.php?cycle=2008&id=NMS2
Kludge
02-08-2011, 11:15 PM
I don't support a Johnson presidential run, but I will absolutely get behind a Johnson senate run!
Johnson for Senate!
+1
Andrew-Austin
02-08-2011, 11:22 PM
Seems like the best option for him, dude certainly wouldn't get far in a Prez bid.
libertybrewcity
02-08-2011, 11:38 PM
He's actually 11 points behind the incumbent Democrat Bingaman. In an open race with likely Democratic candidates he's slightly ahead. Again even if Bingaman stays in that 11 point lead doesn't mean much this early in the cycle (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?278448-Poll-Gary-Johnson-leads-Democrats-in-an-open-seat-race-for-New-Mexico-Senator&p=3098849&viewfull=1#post3098849).
Oh, i just read the poll wrong. thanks for the correction
leonster
02-09-2011, 11:07 AM
I'd get behind him for Senate just as much as I was for Rand!
For President, though.... no.
JamesButabi
02-09-2011, 11:37 AM
Id get behind him for any office. Unfortunetely I can't vote for two people for president and Ron is the reason im even invovled in politics. Thats where my efforts go for that race.
HOLLYWOOD
02-09-2011, 12:07 PM
It looks like it'll be just as expensive as Kentucky was (http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2010&id=KYS2):
Bingaman raised 4.1 Million in an uncompetitive race in 2006 (47% out-of-state): http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2006&id=NMS1
Udall spent almost 8 million in 2008 (55% out-of-state): http://www.opensecrets.org/races/geog.php?cycle=2008&id=NMS2
Sounds about right on the money... you are getting 4.35 votes per Senate seat, when compared to the House.
RP Supporter
02-09-2011, 12:23 PM
I can't understand why Johnson would not want to run for senate. He has to know that his chances of getting the Republican nomination are...not very good. While there is something to be said about running a campaign designed to educate people, if he has a legitimate shot at winning a senate seat he could have a much greater influence in there. Not to mention that a few years down the line he could run for president and have a proven record as governor and senator that people would have to take seriously.
If he really does want to be president, this is the best step he can take.
justinc.1089
02-09-2011, 04:56 PM
Does anyone have an email address to contact Johnson??? :confused::collins:
We need to send him hundreds, even thousands of emails urging him to run for senate. He's pretty much a CERTAIN VICTORY in the senate, and a certain LOSS in a presidential race.
Johnson's not thinking straight. He got way too excited by Paul's campaign last time, and wants to be in the middle of it himself this time, but he's not stopping to realize he won't get anywhere like Paul did, at least not this time.
And he also doesn't realize with our financial help he also has an extraordinarily high chance of becoming a senator.
THEN he could run for president later on, AND his chances would be much better too.
We seriously need to get Johnson's mind right!
The two key words are CERTAIN VICTORY lol!
I really think Johnson stands a very, very good chance to win a senate race, so we must get him to change his mind and go for that rather than the presidency!
Edit: I wish I knew how to make webpages/ websites. Someone should make an entire Draft Johnson for Senate website, where people can sign a petition to show their support for him running for Senate, and send him an email about it.
Does anyone have an email address to contact Johnson??? :confused::collins:
We need to send him hundreds, even thousands of emails urging him to run for senate. He's pretty much a CERTAIN VICTORY in the senate, and a certain LOSS in a presidential race.
Johnson's not thinking straight. He got way too excited by Paul's campaign last time, and wants to be in the middle of it himself this time, but he's not stopping to realize he won't get anywhere like Paul did, at least not this time.
And he also doesn't realize with our financial help he also has an extraordinarily high chance of becoming a senator.
THEN he could run for president later on, AND his chances would be much better too.
We seriously need to get Johnson's mind right!
The two key words are CERTAIN VICTORY lol!
I really think Johnson stands a very, very good chance to win a senate race, so we must get him to change his mind and go for that rather than the presidency!
Edit: I wish I knew how to make webpages/ websites. Someone should make an entire Draft Johnson for Senate website, where people can sign a petition to show their support for him running for Senate, and send him an email about it.
Pretty much this. If he runs for the Presidency and doesn't go the Senate route, he has lost all of my respect.
His choice is essentially this: Run for Senate, get our financial backing and support and likely receive Republican Establishment support because of how good your chances are to grab a Democratic seat. Remember what happened with Rand, when he won the Primary, the Republicans sucked it up and supported him with money.
OR
Run for President, lose miserably and have that be the end of your political career. For the cherry on top, we will all be voting for Ron over you and you likely won't even get a delegate outside of New Mexico.
NewRightLibertarian
02-09-2011, 08:28 PM
I hope he runs for senate. RP has a much better shot at the presidency than Johnson because of his social conservatism. No way a pro-abortion pot smoker can win the GOP nomination.
speciallyblend
02-09-2011, 08:41 PM
Pretty much this. If he runs for the Presidency and doesn't go the Senate route, he has lost all of my respect.
His choice is essentially this: Run for Senate, get our financial backing and support and likely receive Republican Establishment support because of how good your chances are to grab a Democratic seat. Remember what happened with Rand, when he won the Primary, the Republicans sucked it up and supported him with money.
OR
Run for President, lose miserably and have that be the end of your political career. For the cherry on top, we will all be voting for Ron over you and you likely won't even get a delegate outside of New Mexico.
thinking i need to remind him in person at cpac if i get to chat with him!! Gary should stay in if ron paul is not running but if Ron paul runs gary needs to run for senate or he is bsing the liberty movement!!
speciallyblend
02-09-2011, 08:44 PM
I hope he runs for senate. RP has a much better shot at the presidency than Johnson because of his social conservatism. No way a pro-abortion pot smoker can win the GOP nomination.
wrong the reason i support ron paul is pro pot and a pro abortion supporter can support Ron Paul on the fact of state rights
hrdman2luv
02-09-2011, 09:07 PM
He was on Freedom watch tonight... I liked what he had to say.
Libertea Party
02-18-2011, 12:26 PM
It's official: Bingaman is retiring (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/jeff-bingaman-to-retire.html) and the New Mexico Senate race is now open. PPP tweets (http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/38659692339277824):
We found last week that Gary Johnson would be strongest Republican in NM but probably couldn't win primary
Thoughts?
It's official: Bingaman is retiring (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/jeff-bingaman-to-retire.html) and the New Mexico Senate race is now open. PPP tweets (http://twitter.com/#!/ppppolls/status/38659692339277824):
Thoughts?
Translation: If Johnson wins the Primary, he wins the election. And if he doesn't win the Primary, he can run as an Independent and he'd still win. Easiest. Senate. Seat. Ever. If we don't take advantage of this...wow.
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