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View Full Version : DM Register: Big names' plans for Iowa caucus 2012 set to emerge




Bruno
02-06-2011, 09:29 AM
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20110206/NEWS09/102060341/Big-names-plans-for-Iowa-caucus-2012-set-to-emerge?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Frontpage

The fate-turning spectacle of the Iowa caucuses will unfold a year from today - or even sooner - but where are the big names?

A string of prospects have visited Iowa in the past few weeks, dropping hints about their plans. Yet the three Republicans at the top of national presidential preference polls have left few clues in Iowa.

What's up with Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee? Despite their public silence, forces are in motion that could shape an Iowa strategy for Romney and lay the groundwork for a Palin campaign here. But Iowa and national strategists see few signs pointing to a sequel to Huckabee's 2008 campaign.

- Romney showed a card last week: If he seeks the nomination, the former Massachusetts governor will campaign in Iowa. But he's expected to run a much different campaign in Iowa in 2012.

- A supporter of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has been working county-level sources, giving her the seeds of an Iowa organization.

- Huckabee has had little contact with his winning 2008 Iowa caucus team, and has said he will not announce his 2012 plans until this summer.

The developments prompt three questions about the three big-name presidential prospects. The answers will influence who emerges as the winner on caucus night and will shape the race nationally.

The decision window for the prospective candidates narrows by the day. The Iowa caucuses are set for Feb. 6, 2012, but that date could move sooner if New Hampshire or other states opt to leapfrog ahead.

ROMNEY: Will it work to scale back in Iowa?
Romney's comment last week that he plans to compete in Iowa if he seeks the GOP nomination a second time was aimed at quelling rumors that he would skip the state after a disappointing second-place finish in 2008.

Current Romney advisers say it is too early to discuss 2012 campaign strategy, but said they expect a second bid for the caucuses to be different from 2008, when Romney spent $10 million, hired dozens of staff and advertised for nearly a year.

Two Republican strategists who advised Romney in 2008 think there is a path to the nomination for Romney that begins with a less-than-all-out effort in Iowa.

The strategy in 2008 was to establish the one-term governor and investment firm executive as a viable challenger to better-known national figures such as John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.

Romney is far better known today than four years ago, and leads national polls of Republican presidential preference. That means he would not need to win Iowa to break through, as he did in 2008, top Iowa and national strategists said.

One thing Romney learned was that a segment of the Iowa Republican caucus electorate had strong misgivings about him on key social issues, including abortion and benefits for same-sex couples.

Romney saw the lead he established by May 2007 in The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll and his win in the August straw poll in Ames erode to the No. 2 spot behind Huckabee on caucus night. Then came another second-place finish in the New Hampshire primary later that week, and he exited the race in less than a month.

Romney has kept Iowa at arm's length since 2008, part of a strategy to reduce expectations here. He stayed away from the state in 2009 and visited only twice last year.

Newcomers this cycle such as former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty will need to break through in Iowa. Their all-out effort combined with a possible lower-impact Iowa workout for Romney could dampen expectations about his finish, and avoid disappointment heading into New Hampshire, where he has to win, said Republican strategist Mike Murphy.

The approach would be similar to McCain's unintended path in 2008. After skipping Iowa in 2000, the Arizona senator had planned a full-on caucus campaign, but his campaign's finances collapsed, and he had to slash his Iowa staff six months before the caucuses. McCain finished in a close fourth place and went on to win the New Hampshire primary en route to the nomination.

"The thing for Mitt to do in Iowa is to surprise. The best surprise for him, I think, is to finish third and beat, with minimal effort, five others who were there all year," said Murphy, a past adviser to McCain and Romney. "But the only way he can do that is by not spending a lot of money and not getting tangled up in the straw poll. It would be tricky."

Doug Gross, Romney's 2008 Iowa campaign chairman, said Romney should compete fully in Iowa, including in the straw poll, a state GOP fundraising event that has evolved into a closely watched early test of caucus campaign strength. Romney won the 2007 straw poll after a heavy organizing effort.

But Gross said Romney should focus a 2012 Iowa campaign on economic conservatives, not the broad range of Republican activists he tried to reach four years ago.

Social issues hurt Romney in Iowa, where Christian conservatives have significant influence. Romney has supported some rights for same-sex couples. While governor, he changed his position to oppose abortion rights.

By concentrating on economic issues, Romney could emerge as viable moving into the other nominating contests, Gross believes.

Gross also described the health care bill Romney signed in 2006 as "a burden" he will need to explain in light of the 2010 federal health care law, which most Republicans loathe.

"Come in here and be who you are, which is an outstanding chief executive who knows how to run large organizations and make sure their budgets balance. That's what most of the caucusgoers care about," Gross said, outlining advice he would give Romney. "Carve out a niche for yourself where you can exceed expectations. I strongly believe that."

PALIN: Can she set up an Iowa ground game?
While Romney appears headed for another campaign, it's far less clear whether Palin or Huckabee will run.

Palin is the Republican Party's biggest rock star, yet she has put out no feelers in Iowa about mounting a caucus campaign, despite four visits to the state since stepping down as governor in 2009.

But before you write her off, meet Peter Singleton.

The 56-year-old lawyer from Menlo Park, Calif., was in Iowa last month and plans to return next week to talk with local Republican and conservative activists.

It's an unofficial grass-roots effort, he said, unaffiliated with Palin's political action committee, although Palin's PAC political director also has kept in touch with some supporters since last fall.

Singleton's effort is aimed at making party contacts, similar to the early stages of an official caucus campaign, in the event Palin runs - and he assumes she will.

But it's not a draft movement, and not much of an organization at all.

"We all have a pretty good idea of who she is, what she stands for and where she's going," Singleton said in an interview. "So when you are factoring in what kind of organization she is going to have on the ground, when and if she announces, you have to account for the people that support the governor at the level I do, folks who are on the ground not only identifying supporters and potential supporters, but also talking with all sorts of people about the issues, values, and principles most important to them, and about what's at stake in the upcoming election."

Singleton is charting a course similar to the path taken over the past two weeks by GOP prospects Pawlenty, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. Those four have met with legislators, state GOP officials and conservative activists.

Singleton has talked with Iowa Tea Party Chairman Ryan Rhodes, an up-and-coming organizer in a movement that embraces Palin.

Singleton plans to meet with Black Hawk County Republican Party officials when he returns this month, and is making contacts with activists in northern and western Iowa, activists say.

The caucuses are often portrayed as organization-heavy contests where identifying local-level supporters and turning them out is the key to winning.

But a candidate can catch fire and do well without an extensive statewide staff, Murphy said.

Huckabee won the 2008 caucuses with a much smaller staff than Romney's. One difference from Palin is that he had visited Iowa several more times in the two years leading up to the caucus campaign.

With Palin's star power, "I think she could get in later with a big impact as long as she has some people fanning the flames for her there," Murphy said. "Once you have some credibility, you've done a debate, and have some activists lined up, there's a lot of movement late. The thinking that it's all locked up is overrated."

HUCKABEE: How late could he start?
Unlike Palin, who has given no timeline for a decision, Huckabee has said he will announce his plans by summer.

That is later than most others have said they will disclose theirs, prompting some of Huckabee's closest Iowa backers to doubt he'll join the race.

"I'm not convinced he's running," said state Sen. Kent Sorenson of Indianola, a key Huckabee backer in 2008.

Other factors also appear to weigh against a 2012 Huckabee campaign, Sorenson and others say.

Last month, his 2008 campaign manager, Chip Saltsman, became the chief of staff to a freshman Tennessee congressman.

And Huckabee, host of a weekend program on Fox News Channel, announced last month he plans to be the celebrity guest on a weeklong Alaskan cruise featuring Christian music performers from June 5 to 12.

It would be difficult for any candidate to prepare for the August straw poll in two months, said Eric Woolson, Huckabee's 2008 caucus campaign manager.

Woolson and Huckabee have been in touch, but only when someone in Iowa has a request for Huckabee to appear at an event.

"It's going to be too late for some candidates to be successful if they don't get started soon, and they won't know it's too late until it's already too late," Woolson said. "I'm not saying they have to formally announce. I'm saying there's a lot of groundwork that needs to be done, and every day that passes is a day they won't get back."

But Huckabee isn't just any candidate. He is the 2008 caucus winner and would be expected to win again, or would appear to have lost a step, said Mike DuHaime, campaign manager for Republican Rudy Giuliani's 2008 campaign.

"He has to win Iowa to be viable long-term. He won it last time, so the expectations are much higher," DuHaime said. "A win in Iowa is much more important for him than Gov. Romney."

Huckabee is scheduled to be in Iowa on a six-city tour at the end of February to promote his new book. It is not clear whether any political stops will be associated with the visits, scheduled for Feb. 27 and 28.

Huckabee's timetable raises the question of whether he could enter the race even later than midsummer, perhaps after the straw poll.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson made his first Iowa appearance of the 2008 campaign Aug. 17, six days after the 2007 straw poll, and didn't begin traveling the state to meet Republican activists until Sept. 6, fewer than four months until caucus day.

Thompson finished third in the caucuses, and quit the race less than three weeks later after a third-place finish in the South Carolina primary.

Strategists say Huckabee can get in after the straw poll, but that other candidates will be in earlier and competing directly and aggressively for activists that Huckabee counted on in 2008.

One candidate who could siphon off supporters is Bachmann, a favorite of tea party activists as well as Christian home-school advocates, who were a powerful bloc for Huckabee in 2008. Bachmann is scheduled to headline a home-school rally at the Iowa Capitol on March 23 and has had talks with prospective Iowa staff.

That means Huckabee would have to get in before the straw poll to head off a Bachmann surprise, or cede support he might not be able to win back if he enters the race next fall, Sorenson said.

In the meantime, momentum behind a candidate popular in Huckabee's base might discourage him from running, said Bob Vander Plaats of Sioux City, Huckabee's 2008 Iowa campaign chairman.

"In addition to Huckabee making up his own mind, some of these candidates are going to make Huckabee's decision," said Vander Plaats, president of a social conservative advocacy group. "Meaning if there is someone who is capturing the hearts and minds of Iowa caucusgoers in a fresh way, I think he looks at it and says maybe I don't jump in."

TNforPaul45
02-06-2011, 09:33 AM
Well i guess that thos are our only choices because the newspaper said so... La de da

sailingaway
02-06-2011, 09:42 AM
Well i guess that thos are our only choices because the newspaper said so... La de da

Yeah, but if Bachmann is going for homeschoolers and Ron usually has them, heck with Romney's base, I'm more concerned about Ron's. I wouldn't be if he were 10 years younger, but I expect people to make a big deal of the age issue, and it will work on some of those who don't follow records closely. I don't think she'll do great, either, because he has enough of that base that even if she can get momentum it will be pretty split. There aren't THAT many.

TheTyke
02-06-2011, 11:32 AM
Hmmm... very interesting.

Most are of the opinion that in order to be taken seriously and win, Ron will have to focus all his resources on the early states. If Huck doesn't actually run, this will open up a huge opportunity to us, as he won the state last time. We need to reach out and win over Christians, homeschoolers etc. who seemed split between Huck and Paul in 08. (Literally half the Ron Paul activists I met in KY in 08 were homeschoolers... and I knew many others who had sympathies for Huck)

Of course, there are probably some on this forum who will think the most effective strategy is to attack Christians and "enlighten" them about how wrong they are about everything. :rolleyes: