Rassmussen: In a 2012 Ron Paul vs Obama Race: Obama would win, 44% to 35%.

[bobbyw24]

An early look at potential 2012 match-ups indicates that the election is likely shaping up as a referendum on President Obama. That’s typical when an incumbent runs for reelection.

The numbers show that Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee essentially run even with Obama at this point. Romney is nominally up two points, 44% to 42%, while Huckabee is tied with the president at 43% apiece.

Three other well-known potential candidates, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul trail the president. Palin is down by 11 points, 49% to 38%, Gingrich by eight, 47% to 39%, and Paul by nine, 44% to 35%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/romney_huckabee_even_with_obama_other_gop_hopefuls _trail

[Brooklyn Red Leg]

Three other well-known potential candidates, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul trail the president. Palin is down by 11 points, 49% to 38%, Gingrich by eight, 47% to 39%, and Paul by nine, 44% to 35%.

I call bullshit on the Paul numbers since its come out before that in a race with Obama, Ron would score dead even at the least.

[bobbyw24]

Ron Paul is called a "well-known potential candidate"

[rich34]

Wow, and the poll last year showed a 42 to 41 dead heat.. I call BS as well!

[AlexMerced]

not BS, the political center shifts with the wind, last time Obama was perceived to be farther to the left to the center went to Paul, and now that Obama has shifted to the center perceptually he reclaims the center. Also I think that many in the center have bad taste in their mouth about the tea party at this point and anyone associated it.

I still think Ron Paul can win the general, but I do think this poll is accurate as well. It doesn't matter cause the numbers will all be different again a month from now.

[qh4dotcom]

not BS, the political center shifts with the wind, last time Obama was perceived to be farther to the left to the center went to Paul, and now that Obama has shifted to the center perceptually he reclaims the center. Also I think that many in the center have bad taste in their mouth about the tea party at this point and anyone associated it.

I still think Ron Paul can win the general, but I do think this poll is accurate as well. It doesn't matter cause the numbers will all be different again a month from now.

I agree

Actually it's not that surprising considering that Obama's approval numbers unfortunately increased recently...look at the graph

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Anyway those numbers are sure to change once all hell breaks loose and inflation gets worse and the economy deteriorates. Also if the birthers manage to kick Obama off the ballot in several states like Arizona Obama will be perceived as less likely to win.

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Obama's polling has been trending upward since the midterms so it's not really all that surprising.

But hey: Ron Paul is doing better than Sarah Palin. :D

[sailingaway]

Guys, the difference in the numbers is within the margin of error. Obama's ratings have gone up, and Ron Paul has been painted as unable to win, so this is a great start. The earlier poll was during the height of the anger on Obamacare, and many who were angry are hoping this is 'fixed' because of the election. However, I did prefer having that other poll to refer to at CPAC where Ron was just one point behind and I think people should still bring both because it shows a range of fluctuation is there, that Ron is a 'credible candidate' which is what the media tries to say he isn't.

They put the results backwards, I was thinking they were saying Ron was the lowest of the group but he is AHEAD OF PALIN whom everyone call a seriou candidate.

Come on! Going into an election saying your candidate is currently in FOURTH still makes them someone worth looking at, and Ron's record can take it from there. NO ONE has a record like that.

Bring that AND the other one to CPAC. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_barack_obama_42_ron_paul_41

Note that the poll for Ron was taken one week after the Tuscon shooting when the Tea Party was being painted as the 'reason' and before the 'nonsense' backlash.

That actually applies to Sarah Palin's numbers, as well.

correction, I assumed the difference was within the margin of error, but they don't say what the margin of error was. I'm assuming 6 points either way, which would be common for Rasmussen, but isn't always the case.

However, with the timing of CPAC and the Arizona shooting and the date they took the poll, it does make me wonder if they were intentionally suppressing his numbers. They already ran an article saying 'his time has passed' when their only prior poll showed him essentially tied with Obama. But it doesn't mean those numbers weren't relatively accurate within that window of time.

The fact is, if the President can paint himself as centrist, many independents will generally prefer divided government. Usually, I would myself.

[klamath]

Unfortunately the midterms were about a runaway democratic agenda. The American people wanted to stop that but they aren't ready for a runaway republican agenda including a runaway RP agenda. For now they are going to stick with a divided government.

[Bruno]

Obama's polling has been trending upward since the midterms so it's not really all that surprising.

But hey: Ron Paul is doing better than Sarah Palin. :D

And since he gave his "uniting the country" speech after the shooting in Tucson.

[BlackTerrel]

One step at a time. I doubt even 50% of Americans could pick Ron Paul out of a lineup now. If he wins the repub nomination that is a whole different ball game at that point.


I call bullshit on the Paul numbers since its come out before that in a race with Obama, Ron would score dead even at the least.

So you believed the poll where you like the results but not the poll where you don't like the results?

[Epic]

I think these results are good.

As another poster said, these results were taken in the midst of Obama's poll bounce, and heightened scrutiny of Tea-party figures.

Plus, Ron Paul held Obama to 44%, when Palin and Gingrich allowed Obama to capture 49% and 47% respectively.

The article also says:


Seven lesser-known candidates trail by anywhere from 10 to 17 percentage points.

So it turns out that Ron Paul finished 4th out of 12 candidates, and Gingrich only beat him by 1.

[qh4dotcom]

One step at a time. I doubt even 50% of Americans could pick Ron Paul out of a lineup now. If he wins the repub nomination that is a whole different ball game at that point.



So you believed the poll where you like the results but not the poll where you don't like the results?

He also has less name recognition than Obama...I often wear a Ron Paul T-shirt and some folks have noticed it and asked me who he is.

[sailingaway]

I think these results are good.

As another poster said, these results were taken in the midst of Obama's poll bounce, and heightened scrutiny of Tea-party figures.

Plus, Ron Paul held Obama to 44%, when Palin and Gingrich allowed Obama to capture 49% and 47% respectively.

The article also says:



So it turns out that Ron Paul finished 4th out of 12 candidates, and Gingrich only beat him by 1.

No, he beat GINGRICH by one. :p

[nobody's_hero]

Who are the other 21% going to vote for? Am I to assume that 1 in 5 Americans will vote for a candidate other than what the two-party system offers? Because I don't think I can think that with a straight face.

[akforme]

the problem is too many republicans didn't learn a thing and it's more with the older generation for what I've seen. Also in my experience especially with a few of my neighbors small government is not any part of their belief, the only part of small government they think about is shrinking the amount of democrats in it. My neighbor is a Romney loving neocon and he's got more big government beliefs than my grocery store owner who's a liberal from Massachusetts.

[specsaregood]

No, he beat GINGRICH by one. :p
Uhm, how so?

Obama 47%
Gingrich 39%
= 8%

Obama 44%
Paul 35%
= 9%

[TNforPaul45]

Obama's polling has been trending upward since the midterms so it's not really all that surprising.

But hey: Ron Paul is doing better than Sarah Palin. :D

Exactly. Ron would and will get a lot of independent voters, and since obama's recent uptick in the polls, lots of those independents who last year swayed for ron in that poll are seen as giving obama a second chance in this one. I believe that is the reason for the variation between the two polls

With a chunk of independents having second thoughts for obama, you are seeing the strength of huckabee and romney in the gop base.

[MRoCkEd]

Don't forget that Rasmussen is GOP biased - Based on their failings in midterm predictions. Maybe they are trying to gain some credibility back.

[sailingaway]

Uhm, how so?

Obama 47%
Gingrich 39%
= 8%

Obama 44%
Paul 35%
= 9%

Argh, you are right. I read it too quickly. They jump from Palin being down by 11 to Gingrich down by 8 to Ron down by 9. I saw Palin's and Ron's and assumed there was a progression.

[CUnknown]

So do people actually like Romney? How is he winning this poll? He's awful.. Romneycare.. he used to be pro-choice.. people talk about how he looks presidential, but he looks and talks like a used-car salesman to me. He's so fake.. I don't get it..

[specsaregood]

So do people actually like Romney? How is he winning this poll? He's awful.. Romneycare.. he used to be pro-choice.. people talk about how he looks presidential, but he looks and talks like a used-car salesman to me. He's so fake.. I don't get it..

Maybe republican voters don't really want to change abortion law.

[sailingaway]

Maybe republican voters don't really want to change abortion law.

Last election before I knew anything about Ron Paul, I figured I'd vote 'not McCain' in the primary and Romney in the general -- I was thinking he would win and be better than McCain. As his flip flops and vagueness made me uneasy, I looked further, but I wasn't paying enough attention to politics at the time to know that much about him. I bought that he was a 'masterful businessman who had saved the Olympics' etc. And a lot of people were mad at themselves when they voted for people closer to thier views and he lost to McCain, and may not want to do that again. That wasn't the message I took from the election, and after the bailouts, I don't think that will satisfy many with tea party leanings, however, I think a lot of more 'mainstream' GOP who don't obsess over politics might still be on that page, until they see he can't win and they need to find someone else.

[Michael Landon]

If Obama is at 44 and Paul is at 35, who are the other 21% planning on voting for? Does that mean I'm supposed to believe that 9% of Romney's voters would vote for a 3rd party candidate? I doubt they would vote for Chuck Baldwin or Bob Barr over Paul and let Obama win again. That makes no sense to me.

- ML

[South Park Fan]

This coming from the pollster that was drastically off on practically every competitive senate election last year.

[AlexMerced]

So do people actually like Romney? How is he winning this poll? He's awful.. Romneycare.. he used to be pro-choice.. people talk about how he looks presidential, but he looks and talks like a used-car salesman to me. He's so fake.. I don't get it..

I don't think there are many that "like Romney" but lot of active republicans are about winning, and they think he's their best chance. Everyone outside of active republicans isn't paying attention and choose republican only don't choose republican if they don't like the actual person. So Romneys numbers don't represent how much they like him but how much they don't dislike him versus any issues they have with obama.

What concerns me, is that these poll numbers that slightly less people have problem with Gingrich than Paul, and a lot of people just don't like Palin. It's probably only a good 10% of the voting population that swings widely, and it tends to be people who think they are political relevant cause they occasionally watch CNN... those are the people we need to win over.

[McBell]

So do people actually like Romney? How is he winning this poll? He's awful.. Romneycare.. he used to be pro-choice.. people talk about how he looks presidential, but he looks and talks like a used-car salesman to me. He's so fake.. I don't get it..
That sounds awfully presidential to me.

[Eric21ND]

The polls are more accurate than people on this forum give them credit for, 2008 election cycle proved that and Rand's Senate race proved it once again.

[sailingaway]

The polls are more accurate than people on this forum give them credit for, 2008 election cycle proved that and Rand's Senate race proved it once again.

Yeah, but for that moment in time - which happened to be one week after the Tuscon shootings when the media was still pretending they occurred 'because of the heightened discourse' meaning, the tea parties.

[RileyE104]

Nothing more than ramped up propaganda now that the chances of Ron actually running and doing damage are becoming more real every single day as we inch closer to the election.

[Imaginos]

American general public is stupid beyond redemption.

[BlackTerrel]

Who are the other 21% going to vote for? Am I to assume that 1 in 5 Americans will vote for a candidate other than what the two-party system offers? Because I don't think I can think that with a straight face.

1. Haven't decided who they will vote for 18 months from now yet

2. Aren't going to vote/don't care

3. Don't know who Ron Paul is

That's the majority of them.

[bobbyw24]

Let's get moving on these numbers