Your predictions - What will happen in the middle east?

[tangent4ronpaul]

dust off that crystal ball and guess!

[Peace&Freedom]

It's not possible to know at this point whether a puppet or an Egyptian patriot prevails, but it's safe to say the current ruler will be replaced. The overthrow will lead to similar turnover of nearby Arab countries, but in which order is unknown. One dreadful consequence of the current revolt, if Mubarak does not leave office quickly, is opposition forces may close the Suez Canal, which would contribute to a jacking up of oil prices due to the closure constricting traffic of oil out of the Mideast. The price increase crisis rapidly reaches the US, causes the final cracking of the dollar, sending the US economy into a death spiral.

[tangent4ronpaul]

One dreadful consequence of the current revolt, if Mubarak does not leave office quickly, is opposition forces may close the Suez Canal, which would contribute to a jacking up of oil prices due to the closure constricting traffic of oil out of the Mideast. The price increase crisis rapidly reaches the US, causes the final cracking of the dollar, sending the US economy into a death spiral.

I'm sure that is how BigOil will justify the price gouging, but the fact remains that we get most of our oil from locations outside the Middle East. (Canada, Venezuela, Russia, etc). That's also not the only route for oil to leave the region.

-t

[ibaghdadi]

To tell you the truth, every time I try to sit down and talk or write about this I get dizzy from the sheer "mental congestion" of it all. This is big, so much so that I've pretty much put my own personal plans on hold while it clarifies. How it turns out will determine how the rest of my own life goes. I know this sounds intense, but I'm not exaggerating.

I'd rather not comment until things clarify a little, but I can give a few quick points:

Islamism is in crisis (this takes a lot to explain)
If this works out (dictator overthrown) it would have completely destroyed Al-Qaeda's manifesto for the Muslim people; Al-Qaeda would be history
If this doesn't work out, it would have complete rejuvenated Al-Qaeda's manifesto (violence is the only way for change; peaceful change is never possible)
Other dictators will try to liberalize quickly rather than meet the wrath of their masses
One or two may still fall; I'm guessing Yemen and Algeria
Foreign interests may try to push a few others, like Libya and Syria, over the edge
This will determine how the Middle East will look in the next 20 years - more repression and thought control, or more liberal and open
It will also determine our struggle as Muslim libertarians - will it be against authoritarianism in a brutal atmosphere...
...Or will it be a struggle to educate people on libertarianism in an open and peaceful atmosphere?


And now I have a headache.

[pcosmar]

Ashes to ashes all fall down.

Freedom is popular.

I see this whole thing as strengthening Ron Paul's position of a Failed Foreign Policy (regardless or how events go) and non-intervention.

[oyarde]

To tell you the truth, every time I try to sit down and talk or write about this I get dizzy from the sheer "mental congestion" of it all. This is big, so much so that I've pretty much put my own personal plans on hold while it clarifies. How it turns out will determine how the rest of my own life goes. I know this sounds intense, but I'm not exaggerating.

I'd rather not comment until things clarify a little, but I can give a few quick points:

Islamism is in crisis (this takes a lot to explain)
If this works out (dictator overthrown) it would have completely destroyed Al-Qaeda's manifesto for the Muslim people; Al-Qaeda would be history
If this doesn't work out, it would have complete rejuvenated Al-Qaeda's manifesto (violence is the only way for change; peaceful change is never possible)
Other dictators will try to liberalize quickly rather than meet the wrath of their masses
One or two may still fall; I'm guessing Yemen and Algeria
Foreign interests may try to push a few others, like Libya and Syria, over the edge
This will determine how the Middle East will look in the next 20 years - more repression and thought control, or more liberal and open
It will also determine our struggle as Muslim libertarians - will it be against authoritarianism in a brutal atmosphere...
...Or will it be a struggle to educate people on libertarianism in an open and peaceful atmosphere?


And now I have a headache.

Well put , because if this did go best case scenario it would demonstrate successful change .

[pcosmar]

Ashes to ashes all fall down.

Freedom is popular.

I see this whole thing as strengthening Ron Paul's position of a Failed Foreign Policy (regardless or how events go) and non-intervention.

edit; I have to agree with ibaghdadi's assesment. And he is much closer to this.
This is Historic.

[cindy25]

this is not mainly about democracy but economics

nor is it going to remain regional

expect problems in Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and even USA especially black ruled cities (Detroit first, but Buffalo, Newark, Camden ) could follow

Mexico might easily fall by spring.

Israel could also have problems if their economy tanks; the young there will not accept brutal conscription forever

[wildfirepower]

Worldwide change.