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View Full Version : From Facebook - one man's excellent analysis on the situation in Egypt




BlackTerrel
02-03-2011, 11:32 AM
I stole this from my facebook buddy who posted this for all to see. He is friends with one of my really good friends. A Coptic Christian with most of his family still in Egypt and an MD in this country. Very interesting analysis - long but worth it. Everything from here below is his writing.....
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These are my notes on what is taking place in Egypt at the moment, intermingled with some historical background. I divided my notes into sections, so feel free to jump to the next if you feel a certain section is of no particular interest to you.

***


The Lotus Revolution!

The situation in Egypt right now is dire. There are reports on satellite channels of thugs breaking into and stealing stores, as well as some circulating news on social networks about the water being cut off in many parts of the country. I just spoke with my family in Egypt. They sounded a bit nervous, asking me to pray for people in Egypt. They say life is usually quiet and safe during the day, but gunshots and riots usually break out during the night. "National Committees" made of young Egyptians were formed to protect the streets against thieves and thugs. My parents told me that these national committees constructed barricades in front of the streets; they stop cars and examine the drivers' ID papers before letting them go.

On the ground, about 50 thousand Egyptians are occupying the Tahrir Square in Cairo at the moment, with tens of thousands elsewhere in the country. Army tanks and vehicles are everywhere, and fighter jets are flying over the protesters in the skies of Cairo. The internet is still completely down. Some of the cell phone networks are back, but SMS services are still down. Satellite TV channels operating in Egypt were instructed to terminate their broadcasting. As far as I'm aware, all American and European news agencies, as well as the Saudi Al-Arabia, have complied. And as far as I know, only Al-Jazeera continues to defy this embargo. Three Egyptian cities, namely Cairo, Alexandria and Suez were placed under curfew for 13 hours per day. Nevertheless, the Egyptians have been defying this curfew for the last 3 days. Nineteen of Egypt's most prominent businessmen have reportedly fled the country. The Egyptian stock market is very close to collapsing, if it hasn't already.

The United States, France, the United Kingdom and Germany issued statements regarding the situation in Egypt. All of them warned Mubarak with regards to using violence against the peaceful demonstrators. With Mubarak's long history of human rights violations against his opponents, and with the new development of fighter jets flying the skies over the demonstrators, I certainly second their concerns. With a few exceptions, the Egyptian airports remain shut down. Many countries have already sent airplanes to evacuate their citizens currently in Egypt.

In many parts of Cairo and Alex, the national committees have been engaging in street fighting with these thugs, and managed to hand off over 1,000 of them to army soldiers for apprehension. Thousands of prisoners have escaped from a number of prisons in Cairo and Wadi el-Natroun. In some instances, prison guards indiscriminately opened fire at the prisoners, killing tens of them. Some of the prisoners who escaped from Cairo were Palestinian terrorists who broke into Egypt in 2008. To my surprise, some of these terrorists have already made it as far as their homes in Gaza!

***

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is - unfortunately - Egypt's main opposition group. They were created in 1928 to reinstate the Islamic Caliphate, and to create a system governed by Islamic Shariaa. They were very much involved in violent attacks against Egyptian political figures in the 1930's and 1940's. In 1948, the "secret apparatus" - the military wing of the MB - murdered the Egyptian Prime Minister Mahmoud Fahmi el-Nokrashi. Less than 2 months later, the Egyptian state, then a monarchy, retaliated by murdering the founder of the MB, Hassan el-Banna.

When the 1952 coup d'état forced the king to abdicate, leading a year later to the abolition of the monarchy, it was very much inspired by the MB. In fact, Gamal Abdel Nasser, the main figure behind the coup, was member of the "secret apparatus", and so were almost all members of the "Free Officers" who carried out the coup. In 1949, Nasser and his colleague in the Free Officers movement Khaled Mohey el-Din, swore on the Quran and the gun to pledge allegiance to the MB. However, Nasser quickly turned against the MB In 1954 when they attempted to assassinate him during one of his speeches in Alexandria. He cracked down on MB leaders and members, executing some, and placing others in concentration camps.

However, Nasser's successor, Anwar el-Sadat, followed a much different path. Following his assumption of the presidency, he quickly set MB prisoners free and gave them considerable power to fight Nasser's leftists and other communists. As a result, Egypt became quickly radicalized, and violence erupted throughout the country. This violence culminated in the murder of Sadat himself in 1981 by Khaled el-Islamboly, a member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, very much inspired by the ideologies of the MB.

The presence of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) has been indubitably disastrous to the Christians in Egypt. Arguably, the first criminal attack against Copts in the 20th century was carried out by MB members in the city of Suez on January 7th 1952, wherein they attacked a church in the city and dragged its priest throughout the city. They subsequently killed a number of Christians in Suez, publicly defiled their bodies by placing them on "hooks", then threw the bodies inside the church and set the entire building ablaze. The MB's crimes against Christians continued after the creation of the republic. In 1972, they burned St Mina church in Beheira, the church of Khanka in Cairo, and the church of the Virgin Mary in Souhag. It is difficult to tell when, or even whether, the violence of the MB against the Christians in Egypt stopped, simply because the ideologies of the MB have very much infiltrated and inspired more radical groups, among which el Gamaa el-Islameya, the Egyptian Islamic Jihad and Hamas (in Gaza). They thus turned from being Egypt's most radical Islamic group in the 1930's and 1940's to a somewhat "moderate" Islamic group today - the bar of "moderation" here being evidently very low when the counterparts are a bunch of terrorists and suicide bombers. Whether the MB has completely renounced violence today remains arguable.

Today, the MB enjoys the support of a large portion of the population. In my personal opinion, I think that between 20% and 30% of the country supports them. Whether or not I believe that the leaders of that group receive foreign funds to implement foreign ideologies in the country, I certainly cannot say the same about the millions who support the MB. These millions may be misled, but they wholeheartedly believe in the MB, and democracy dictates that they be given parliamentary representation and governmental posts proportional to their percentage. If I, as a member of Egypt's religious minority, demand my freedom of expression, I cannot deny others in the country those exact same rights. I cannot predict the future. Some are worried that the MB may deny everyone else their freedom once - or rather "if" - they assume power. This may or may not be true. At the moment nobody can guarantee or discredit this claim, simply because of our lack of ability to predict the future. However, I cannot judge anyone today for what may or may not happen tomorrow. They must be given the chance and be judged according to their actions. Of course the MB, just like all political parties in the world, have political aspirations, and they have the right to have them. They must be encouraged to turn into a civil political party, just like the Christian Democrats or Christian Socialists in Europe. However, boycotting and outlawing the MB will radicalize them, and keeping them in the seats of the opposition will amass for them further popular sympathy.

***

I DESPISE Mubarak. Let's get it straight. He is a dictator, a criminal and a megalomaniac! He has, and very successfully, managed to manipulate the entire world, including the US and Europe, for the last 30 years. He is an evil genius, to say the least. Publicly, he cracked down on the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and insisted it was an outlawed group, since the Egyptian constitution prohibits religiously-based political parties. However, from behind the scenes, he gave them quite some power, albeit in a very calculated fashion. He then used them to scare off the West by implying that the only alternative to his dictatorship and authoritarian regime would be the radical Islamists of the MB. Of course, he forgot to mention to his allies that the main reason the MB have become pretty much sole opposition group is because his regime very much hindered the formation of liberal political parties, and yet turned a blind eye to the MB and their activities. For me, it is very ironic that Mubarak's regime called the MB an outlawed group, and yet:
1. The MB headquarters in all Egyptian cities, including Cairo, have huge banners identifying these buildings as indeed the HQ's of the MB, with Mubarak's regime shamelessly ignoring their presence.
2. From 2005 to 2010, 88 of the Egyptian parliament's 444 elected members were indeed members of the MB, who ran under the MB's motto "Islam is the Solution", yet again Mubarak's regime completely turned a blind eye to their presence in the parliament.

To conclude, the Mubarak regime is very much responsible for the unprecedented increase in popularity for the MB, not only indirectly because of Mubarak's failed policies, but also directly by giving them much power behind the scenes.

Mubarak is also responsible for the radicalization of Egypt. I was born in 1983, about 18 months after Mubarak assumed power. In my young years, there were no veiled women in Egypt. This gradually changed. Today, I know of very few Muslim women who remain unveiled, and estimates put forward the figure of 5% of Egyptian women being "munaqabat" (wearing the burqaa, aka. completely veiled and not even showing their face) - just like women in Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan. This is in stark contrast to the micro- and minijupes worn by Egyptian women in the 1960's! Other fruits of Mubarak's 30 year-old reign include unprecedented rates of unemployment, rampant corruption and rising prices that are in no way proportional to the mediocre increase in wages.

***

Many Christians are very nervous about the latest developments in Egypt. They are worried that once the Mubarak regime collapses, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) would assume power, and Egypt would turn into another Pakistan with much restriction on Christians. Some Christians are very reluctant to participate in the uprising against Mubarak, because they believe the MB is running the show from behind the scenes.

I beg to differ!

First of all, the mere fact that Christians are so scared of the MB today is a living proof that Mubarak's policy of "divide and conquer" between Muslims and Christians has born fruit. Instead of following the leads of their grandparents who revolted against the Ottoman Empire and the British Occupation in 1919, some Christians contend to remain bystanders, watching history unfold in front of their eyes, while they stay home praying for the best! Those Christians have failed to understand 2 very basic facts. The first fact is that if Mubarak stays in power, the MB will continue to slowly but steadily grow stronger. The second fact is that if they refuse to take part in this revolution for the freedom of Egypt, and if they fail to make their presence very clear, Christians would not enjoy - and in a way would not deserve to enjoy - the fruits born by this revolution. Fortunately, this has not been the case, and many Christians have been actively involved in the revolution. The list of activists who were arrested on the streets during the first 2 days includes many Christian names, although not in any way proportional to the percentage of Christians in Egypt. In my opinion, the Christian participation in the revolt needs to grow.

Secondly, it must be made very clear that this revolution started as and remains at the moment a very secular grassroots revolution, in spite of some people's attempts to give it a religious flavor. In fact, for the first 2 days of the revolution (January 25th and 26th), the MB refused to take any active part in it, and even tried their best to distance themselves from what was taking place on the streets. I have no doubt that they were uncertain of the outcome, and so preferred to maintain their undeclared "truce" with the Mubarak regime instead of angering it. However, once the popular secular revolution gained momentum, they realized they would be missing a lot by not joining, and thus declared their active participation in the uprising alongside the other opposition parties. So it cannot be stressed enough that this revolution started as a secular non-religious movement, and must remain so. And the only guarantee for it to remain secular is through active participation of the Egyptian Christian youth.

Thirdly, Egyptian Christians must understand that this revolution happened in the first place due to their courage and bravery. In fact, Copts take much credit for breaking the fear barrier from Mubarak and his regime during the events that followed the New Year's massacre of 23 Christians in Alexandria. During the funeral of the martyrs, which took place in the Monastery of Saint Mina, thousands of Copts chanted against Mubarak and against the governor of Alexandria, in his presence! They declined Mubarak's condolences to the Coptic community, and asked for the resignation of the governor of Alexandria and the minister of interior. In the street protests that took place between January 1st and January 4th, the Christians re-voiced their demands, and chanted anti-Mubarak slogans. I fail to understand why Christians would take to the streets when the Coptic community is under attack, but refrain from doing so when all of Egypt rises against oppression and dictatorship!

I am completely against the involvement of religion in politics. However, reports from the Tahrir Square today showed prominent Azhar figures joining the demonstrators on the street. On the other hand, I also heard word - which I cannot confirm at this point - that H.H. Pope Shenouda III, the Pope of Alexandria, called Mubarak to express his support. If this proves to be true, then I really do not understand how or what our Pope is thinking! If the Muslim's most prestigious institution has been already represented on the street, some Coptic priests should also show up to create some sort of religious balance. To stand by the separation of religion and politics in which I firmly believe, the Church should not be officially involved in this religious-less struggle. However, some priests should have the courage to make it down to Tahrir Square to give this noble cause its well-deserved national unity image.

To conclude this section, Christians need to break the fear barrier from the "unknown future" just as they broke the fear barrier from Mubarak in prior demonstrations. They must understand that the future will remain unknown for as long as they fail to be actively involved. They must also learn the good lesson of the 1919 Revolution and comprehend that, if they are afraid of what may happen tomorrow, they must act on this fear today before it's too late.

***

To my great disliking, Al-Jazeera TV Channel is currently the only source of live streaming for the demonstrations. I have pretty strong feelings about that channel. Since its creation in 1996, this Qatar-based satellite channel has been the official voice of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) worldwide. And since the MB is on the side of the opposition almost everywhere in the Middle East, Al-Jazeera has continuously criticized almost all Middle-Eastern nations, accusing them of being American puppets and Zionist followers. The only two exceptions are Gaza (where Hamas, which is the MB-branch in the Palestinian territories, is in power) and - obviously - Qatar. This is in spite of the myriads of human rights violations in Gaza, and in spite of the fact that Qatar harbors the largest American military base in the region.

In light of these facts, it was not surprising that, since the beginning of the Lotus Revolution in Egypt, Al-Jazeera has repeatedly attempted to give the impression that the MB was playing a pivotal role in the protests. For the last number of days, the Qatar-based satellite channel has been interviewing MB members all day long, has exaggerated the news about arresting MB members, and has been spreading lies about MB leaders running the demonstrations in Alexandria. Moreover, whenever showing its "most important moments of the day", Al-Jazeera would show videos of Muslim demonstrators performing daily prayer on the streets. With more than 100 victims since the eruption of the revolution on Tuesday, the one funeral that Al-Jazeera chose to broadcast was that of a member of the MB who was shot dead in Alexandria. Al-Jazeera also broadcasted misleading news about the Coptic tycoon Naguib Sawires having left the country, which eventually turned out to be unfounded and erroneous information. In summary, Al-Jazeera, with its hidden pro-Islamist agenda, has lacked objectivity during the current crisis, and has been attempting to give its watchers the illusion that the revolution is led by the Islamists. However, that being said, I find myself obliged to salute the bravery of that channel and its Egypt-based team, as the only broadcasters who decided to defy the Egyptian government's embargo on satellite channels in the country.

***

The greatest threat that Egyptians face as they go to bed tonight is the security situation. A few days ago, the police took a very fishy step and retreated from the streets. Immediately thereafter, a bunch of thugs walked the streets of Cairo and Alex, randomly shooting people and breaking into stores and houses. Classified documents have emerged, which incriminate police officers and thugs related to the ministry of interior. I do not doubt it for one second. Looking back to the 2005 and 2010 parliamentary elections, I remember very well how Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP) employed thugs with swords and clubs to intimidate voters, while inside, NDP protagonists were forging people's votes. In 2005, my uncle told me he could not even make it as far as the voting center because of the NDP thugs on the streets. Moreover, we all remember the police brutality against Khaled Saiid, the 28 year-old Alexandrian who was brutally beaten to death on the street by a couple of thugs working for the ministry of interior. We also remember how the Egyptian police shot dead 3 young Christians demonstrating last November in Omraneya, Giza, because Mubarak's government refused that Christians build a church in their neighborhood; and how a police officer shot dead a Christian man in an Upper Egyptian train on January 11th. So basically police brutality is no news to the Egyptians. In fact, interviews with members of the civilian "national committees" protecting the Egyptian streets right now suggest that many of these thugs were carrying police ID's. In my opinion, these "national committees" formed of young men to protect their streets and neighborhoods are doing a marvelous job securing the streets. They have also taken heroic actions to protect the Egyptian Museum and the Library of Alexandria. Yet, they cannot do it alone and certainly not for long against those carrying machine guns and live ammunition.

***

My main worry at this point is not the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). I am much more worried about what any future government will do with the Camp David Accords (the peace treaty with Israel). Supposedly, if Mubarak uses the last bit of common sense that he may still have and decides to abdicate, the next long-term government will truly reflect the Egyptian people's aspirations. The vast majority of Egyptians are against peace with Israel, I am afraid. So the next long-term government will face a huge dilemma: listening to the people vs. maintaining peace with Israel. The last thing I would want to see for my country is a destructive war with our neighbors. I wholeheartedly support peace with Israel, and I find that the Palestinians, especially Hamas in Gaza, are a much more significant threat to Egypt than Israel is. Of course the vast majority of Egyptians would disagree. In a way, one of the very few good things about Mubarak's authoritarian regime was that, as a dictator, he forced peace with Israel upon the Egyptians. And even if it was a cold and tense peace, it is certainly better than no peace at all.

***

A final word. Some are starting to shed doubts on the revolution. Some are talking about an international or regional conspiracy against Mubarak. Others are talking about a Muslim Brotherhood-backed plot. With all due respects to these opinions, I suggest that you forget about the recent events, take a step back and think for a second. Mubarak treated the Egyptians like slaves for the last 30 years. His security system tortured and killed Egyptians right and left. He and his corrupt family amassed a huge fortune from money that belongs to the people. He radicalized the country and turned us at least 100 years backwards to the time when Egyptian women could not show their faces in public. So now the question becomes: is this really someone you would like to see in power? As to those who are against the revolution because of violence and the chaos, I say: There is no salvation without bloodshed.

Long live the Lotus Revolution!

pcosmar
02-03-2011, 11:52 AM
This one from someone in Egypt. that I have been following in Tweets
Posted on another Blog, because his has been shut down.
http://lisagoldman.net/2011/02/03/egypt-right-now-by-sandmonkey/
http://twitter.com/sandmonkey

Pericles
02-03-2011, 11:57 AM
That was a good read, even allowing for looking at events through the writer's "prism" of his point of view.

BlackTerrel
02-03-2011, 08:22 PM
That was a good read, even allowing for looking at events through the writer's "prism" of his point of view.

He has been my mid-east "expert" for some time now. Incredibly smart dude.

fj45lvr
02-03-2011, 08:24 PM
Just anxious to see Egypt open the gaza border.....no longer hold the bag for the concentration camp guards

BlackTerrel
02-05-2011, 03:14 PM
Just anxious to see Egypt open the gaza border.....no longer hold the bag for the concentration camp guards

You think that will be good for America? Or Egypt?

pcosmar
02-05-2011, 03:28 PM
You think that will be good for America? Or Egypt?

It would be good for the people in Gaza.
Why would it affect the US at all?