The Millennial Generation and the Destruction of the Republican Party

[GBurr]

Future elections will be decided by the Millennial Generation. This mean disaster for the Republican politics of recent years, but it also should give hope to libertarians. For those of you unfamiliar with generation titles coined by William Strauss and Neil Howe the following is a rundown.

G.I. Generation (Greatest generation) (b. 1901-1924)

Silent Generation (b. 1925-1945)

Baby Boomer Generation (b. 1946-approximately 1964)

Generation X (b. approximately 1965-1981)

Millennial Generation (Gen Y, Echo Boomers) (b. 1982-2000)

So currently the political make up amongst generations is very intriguing. The silent generation is the drive behind Republican voters at this time. The Silent Generation is very socially conservative as a whole. They are however growing older and there political influence will wain in coming years. The Boomers and Generation X are established in the political spectrum and the likelihood of a large political shift in one of these demographics is small. Boomers have made up the majority of American representatives since 1994. Gen X is characterized by a rather large amount of frustration with the Baby Boomers. Much of this frustration stems from the fact that Gen X must compete with Baby Boomers not only within the corporate world, but are also expected to take on more and more burdening debt. That leaves the Millennial Generation who are only now coming of age. The Millennials are the largest generation in history with over 90 million members. In 2008 Millennials made up 20% of the Voting population and went for Obama 2-1. This is important because Millenials were the only generation that Obama had a decisive lead amongst voters. By 2020 all of the Millennials will be voting age and should make up about 37% of the voting population. Ron Paul has also attracted a very high number of Millennials proportionally.

The Millennial generation will have a huge impact on the Republican party in the future. As the Silent Generations voting block begins to diminish the Republican Party will need to find new voters among the Millennials or the the party will no longer be able to compete with the Democrats.

Approval rating for President Bush among Millennials is about 9%. Compare that to Bush's overall approval rating which is about 47%(how in the world is bush's rating this high) at the moment and the future of the Republican party looks very interesting. The reason for this all is actually rather simple. Millennials are overwhelmingly Socially Liberal. Millennials as a whole are excepting of races and cultures, they are for immigration, they have no problem with homosexuals, and they really don't care if people want to smoke pot. The generation is also strongly anti-war. For this they contrast strongly with the Silent Generation. When it comes to economics the Millennials still lean to the left but not nearly as much as they do socially. Whole more Millennials say they approve of state run helathcare than say they disapprove there is a large number that isn't sure. When it comes to entitlement programs Millennials realize that the bills are going to come due eventually. While outright elimination of Social Security and Medicare are not popular reform is. As a young generation just like Gen X the Millennials do not want to be caught trying to fund an insolvent S.S. or Medicare. What is clear is that much of the millennials are waking up to the insanity of the fiscal policy in the US. Obama may have held a 2-1 lead in the Millennials back in 2008 but now he only has a 54% approval rating among Millennials with 27% strongly disapproving. With unemployment around 20% for Millennials and overwhelming student debt threatening to smoother them alive this trend away from socialist economics should continue. On the other hand while the Silent Generation does a great deal to talk about small government they remain strongly opposed to S.S. and Medicare reform. They are also strongly against cutting military spending and are the most likely individuals to support the wars.

These factors will kill the Republican party unless it takes a drastic shift towards more libertarian ideas, however any such shift would disenfranchise the Silent Generation which remains the base of the Republican party.

Fox News can talk about how influential the redistricting will be for the future of American politics, but the real big influence will come from the Millennial Generation as they replace the Silent Generation at the ballot box.

The future is pretty bright for libertarianism. Young Americans for Liberty and Students for Liberty are growing at a phenomenal rate. We will win the R3VOLUTION.

Your Thoughts?

[Danke]

"Millennials made up 20% of the Voting population and went for Obama 2-1" Yeah, I have high hopes with these punks.

[sevin]

"Millennials made up 20% of the Voting population and went for Obama 2-1" Yeah, I have high hopes with these punks.

That kind of stereotyping is not going to attract them to libertarian ideas. When you're young, it's easy to be fooled, and they thought Obama was an anti-war candidate. The fact is, they know huge budget cuts will be necessary (including the military) and that a lot of hard work needs to be done. Don't discount them yet.

If you look at Strauss and Howes' theories, you'll see that the millennial generation parallels the GI generation. Now most of the GI generation supported FDR, so at the time I'm sure a lot of older people thought they were a bunch of young socialists. But that generation rebuilt this country.

Also remember that a large portion of Ron Paul supporters and libertarians are from this generation. I'm actually very optimistic for the long term future.

[BuddyRey]

"Millennials made up 20% of the Voting population and went for Obama 2-1" Yeah, I have high hopes with these punks.

Every Millennial I know (including myself) is a Ron Paul supporter. Don't let a few bad apples spoil the whole bunch. ;-)

[dannno]

Approval rating for President Bush among Millennials is about 9%. Compare that to Bush's overall approval rating which is about 47%(how in the world is bush's rating this high) at the moment and the future of the Republican party looks very interesting. The reason for this all is actually rather simple. Millennials are overwhelmingly Socially Liberal. Millennials as a whole are excepting of races and cultures, they are for immigration, they have no problem with homosexuals, and they really don't care if people want to smoke pot. The generation is also strongly anti-war.

That's been my experience..... and also why they voted for WHAT THEY SAW as the lesser of two evils in the next election..

[Rothbardian Girl]

From what I have seen in my AP Gov class (admittedly, it is a small sample size), people are pretty libertarian in some areas, but don't realize it yet, I think. Most of them still support Obama and think the problems we are facing right now arise from an "inability to get anything done", but they are pretty libertarian when it comes to social issues and civil liberties.

Despite this, I don't have much hope for most of them -- they either are Obamabots or right-wing statists, and they have an inability to think beyond what they are spoon-fed daily by MSNBC or Fox News or even public educators (including my Gov teacher :mad::mad:) . Their knowledge of politics usually is pretty limited in scope and based on the left-right paradigm we all love to hate. Most of them dismiss Ron Paul and other obviously libertarian-sympathetic people as kooks. I mean, I'm pretty sure more than half my class still thinks Social Security is a reality for them, as one example of the cluelessness that I've seen.

This may or may not be the same as for other people. I do live in a relatively liberal area of PA, so of course the data is going to be skewed one way or the other. I try as hard as I can to educate people, but it is very hard for me to sound intelligent when I talk about politics, so I usually tend to rely on writing, which is a bit harder to use in order to get a message across. I don't mean to sound so negative once again, but don't hold out hope for most of the young people. They're just as bad as their parents.

Of course they are great in some ways. But like most people, the majority are just horrifyingly bad on some of the most important issues like domestic welfare and foreign policy.

[speciallyblend]

pretty good. I would say dam close to the truth. If the gop fails to nominate Ron Paul or Gary Johnson. The gop will force me to look elsewhere!! Sounds like the gop has a choice;)

[GBurr]

"Millennials made up 20% of the Voting population and went for Obama 2-1" Yeah, I have high hopes with these punks.

I think for the most part 2008 was a recall on Bush. Obama also made some really large promises for Iraq and Afghanistan which he has failed to fulfill. Things also haven't gotten any better on the drug war front and Guantanamo remains open. The only thing positive for homosexuals was the repeal of don't ask don't tell and that took 2 years. These are all issues that young people were drawn too and Obama hasn't really delivered.

[1836er]

With the vast array of easily accessible entertainment options that now dominate our popular culture, I think, in some ways like ancient Rome did, we've reached the "bread and circuses" phase of our civilizational/political development, when more people than ever before define the meaning of freedom through the prism of their ability to access and consume the "bread and circuses" from whichever niche of the vast spectrum of entertainment options they most obsess over. The powers that be know that as long as enough of the bread and circuses are available to the masses, the masses will continue to be quite content to engulf themselves in whatever niche passions they believe are the source of their emotional fulfillment... giving little care for or even realizing that in regard to the fundamentals of life they are no longer free at all.

And then at some point in the future, when they whole system comes crashing down, it will not lead to a rebirth of freedom. The sheeple will gladly embrace whatever tyranny promises to "conserve" and/or "restore" the greatest degree of accessibility to the bread and circuses.

[Ethek]

Actually I think Millienials offer the best hope for opportunity. The cycles of history offered by Howe and Straus are basically cycles of behavior, somewhat predictable. It will be a challange for any generation to rise above their circumstances but I do think that Millinials are the most open to 'change' and they are the most resilient in their ability to deal with the inevitable collapse in socially healthy ways. Not controlling statists ones. Im not suprised that many fell in with Obama but they are young enough not to be fixed into any one way of thinking.

I was fortunate enough to write the forward to a book that touches on the subject Discovering Possibility A Common Sense Conservative Manifesto (for Classical Liberals Too) (Discovering Possibility A Common Sense Conservative Manifesto (for Classical Liberals Too))

[Jack Bauer]

Every non-Leftist Millennial I know (including myself) is a Ron Paul supporter. Don't let a few bad apples spoil the whole bunch. ;-)

Fixed.

[fisharmor]

If you look at Strauss and Howes' theories, you'll see that the millennial generation parallels the GI generation. Now most of the GI generation supported FDR, so at the time I'm sure a lot of older people thought they were a bunch of young socialists. But that generation rebuilt this country.

This is probably where they got the old saw, where if you're young and conservative, you're heartless, but if you're old and liberal, you're brainless.

A trip to Europe circa 1943 would probably cure many a young man of a lot of his statist ailments.

[Matt Collins]

Zogby had a great book about this called "The Way We'll Be". I suggest everyone read it as it also provides insights into how polls are conducted.

[heavenlyboy34]

I was born in late December of 1981. Does that make me a "millennial" or "Gen X"? :confused:

[Danke]

I was born in late December of 1981. Does that make me a "millennial" or "Gen X"? :confused:

A punk wannabe.

[Matt Collins]

I was born in late December of 1981. Does that make me a "millennial" or "Gen X"? :confused:
Generation Y
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_y

[TheRightsWriter.com]

This is a common argument, which is made every 5-10 years: The current generation is so liberal the Republican Party will inevitably die. What is overlooks is one fact: eventually people grow up. To be an adult is no longer to be a liberal.

The great challenge to this maxim, and where the coming generation may differ from past ones, is that government and society are doing all they can to preserve a perpetually infantile state. They never leave their parents' insurance. If they work half a year, they get three years off.

A second factor is that skyrocketing illegitimacy rates and the lowest regard for marriage in history mean many Millenials will depend on the State before they leave their teens/early 20s. All polls show what civilizes and turns young socialists into conservatives is not children but family life. As this recedes, so do the hopes of the Republican Party and all those opposed to the Nanny State.

[GBurr]

This is a common argument, which is made every 5-10 years: The current generation is so liberal the Republican Party will inevitably die. What is overlooks is one fact: eventually people grow up. To be an adult is no longer to be a liberal.

Even as Millennials Grow up they will still hold hard on issues like homosexuality. The Republican party will have to become more liberal. In fact we are already seeing how the Republican party is going. GOProud is a cosponsor of CPAC.

[sevin]

This is a common argument, which is made every 5-10 years: The current generation is so liberal the Republican Party will inevitably die. What is overlooks is one fact: eventually people grow up. To be an adult is no longer to be a liberal.

The great challenge to this maxim, and where the coming generation may differ from past ones, is that government and society are doing all they can to preserve a perpetually infantile state. They never leave their parents' insurance. If they work half a year, they get three years off.

A second factor is that skyrocketing illegitimacy rates and the lowest regard for marriage in history mean many Millenials will depend on the State before they leave their teens/early 20s. All polls show what civilizes and turns young socialists into conservatives is not children but family life. As this recedes, so do the hopes of the Republican Party and all those opposed to the Nanny State.

This is true to a certain extent, but the government won't be able to keep funding the nanny state forever, and it's not all about family life.

I think as a lot of these young conservatives and liberals grow up, they will be so angry with the current establishment because of miserable economic conditions that a huge amount of them will turn libertarian, the only option that suggests the government stop screwing things up and leave people alone on social issues. It happened to me and I've seen it happen to a couple friends of mine.

When I say I have a lot of hope for this generation, I don't mean none of them will be socialists or fascists. I just think a much larger percentage of this generation will be libertarian than previous generations.

[fisharmor]

Even as Millennials Grow up they will still hold hard on issues like homosexuality.

I don't know. I think the grown up position on homosexuality is different from stock liberalism.
Non-homosexuals ought to be grown up enough to realize that homosexuality isn't something that can be involuntarily changed,
and homosexuals ought to be grown up enough to realize that straight people's opinions of homosexuality isn't something that can be voluntarily changed.
Libertarianism is the only political system which doesn't hold a gun to someone's head and attempt to change his heart and mind involuntarily, so it's the only truly "grown up" system of thought.


This is true to a certain extent, but the government won't be able to keep funding the nanny state forever, and it's not all about family life.

True, other factors are bringing this to a head before family life.
But Republicans are also losing a cultural war, because people are waking up to the fact that NOTHING the government does should be about family life.
Family is supposed to be the social safety net, not government.
After that is religion, which almost always uses its influence to keep families together in the first place.

As usual, government got involved in something it had no business getting into, totally fucked it up, and here we are 100 years later still having discussions about how government can improve family life. How about they just stop fucking it up, and we see how that goes?

Republicans are doomed, and the family references aren't going to help - but not because people are anti-family. Nobody cares about family values precisely because the government has removed economic incentive for us to care about them.

So the libertarian position is also the only pro-family position, because if the crutch of government was kicked out from under them, people would have to make their own arrangements for safety nets.
I guarantee that if a teenage girl had nowhere to go after getting knocked up but her father, you'd see a lot less of the sort of thing Republicans are frothing at the mouth to try to control via the state.

[tangent4ronpaul]

With unemployment around 20% for Millennials and overwhelming student debt threatening to smoother them alive this trend away from socialist economics should continue.


they will be so angry with the current establishment because of miserable economic conditions that a huge amount of them will turn libertarian

Issues we should focus on:
School tuition and why financial aid is a bad thing.
Inflation and how the standard of living is declining
Jobs and the economy - especially how regulation hurts them and sends jobs overseas.

Has anyone considered how the economy sucking could be a good thing with reaching this generation. Used to be kids, parents and grandparents all lived together. With young adults staying with their parents, possibly till they are 30 or so, due to lack of jobs, this could signal a return to that and influence their views.

-t

[klamath]

And then generation Z will turn against Gen Y and so the tide cycles continue.

[risiusj]

Issues we should focus on:
School tuition and why financial aid is a bad thing.
Inflation and how the standard of living is declining
Jobs and the economy - especially how regulation hurts them and sends jobs overseas.


I'm using this as a topic in my speech class. My entire audience attends college. Perfect.

[sevin]

And then generation Z will turn against Gen Y and so the tide cycles continue.

Exactly. Generation Z will change pop culture as much as the silent generation did, and the generation after that will be as rebellious as the baby boomers were.

[tangent4ronpaul]

What comes after Z?

It probably won't matter - we'll all be speaking Chinese by then.

-t