It's time to short the stock markets!!!

[Eric21ND]

The Dow Jones keeps going up on lower volume, while the russell 2000 is going down on higher volume.

Dow Jones keeps going higher, while the nasdaq is starting to fade.

QE2 is drying up and the market is headed for a big correction, on the order of 5-10%.

What are people's opinions?

[Seraphim]

QE3 and a running series of capital injections by the FED is very likely. Commodities will continue to out perform the stock markets. The stock markets as a GENERAL WHOLE are going up as the result of the inflation, whereas commodities are going up as a result of inflation AND demand.

If QE's stop- the stock markets are in for a serious correction. The Fed and the GOVTS are ALL IN on QE, Keynesianism and perpetual deficit spending. I don't see them stoping.

[jct74]

I agree. We're due for a correction of at least a few percent. I'm thinking about it too.

[YumYum]

We better get out while we can.

[devil21]

Somethings up when the Dow is going vertical and PMs are dropping fast. There's manipulation in them thar charts!

Im not shorting shit. Just keep buying your physical PMs. These dips are great for cost averaging.

[Seraphim]

Yea Im really wanting to buy some PM's...I'll give it another 2 weeks or so and go from there.


Somethings up when the Dow is going vertical and PMs are dropping fast. There's manipulation in them thar charts!

Im not shorting shit. Just keep buying your physical PMs. These dips are great for cost averaging.

[enoch150]

The stock markets as a GENERAL WHOLE are going up as the result of the inflation, whereas commodities are going up as a result of inflation AND demand.

How is it possible that commodities can rise, in part because of demand, without an increase in business activity in a substantial amount of publicly traded companies?

[devil21]

How is it possible that commodities can rise, in part because of demand, without an increase in business activity in a substantial amount of publicly traded companies?

I think Seraphim is referring mostly to PMs.

However there is increasing demand for grains and oil in China and India and other emerging markets too.

[Merk]

POMO's will not allow the market to crash. They are now flipping treasury debt into the market via POMO that is not even 1 month old.

[Acala]

How is it possible that commodities can rise, in part because of demand, without an increase in business activity in a substantial amount of publicly traded companies?

This is one of the main ways that foreign dollars are going to come pouring back into the country - when China, Japan, India, and others decide to unload dollars, they will use them to buy American commodities and assets, driving up the price. So we will have price increases in goods that foreigners want while we have a decrease in domestic business activity. The inflationary depression Dr. Paul has talked about.

[tmosley]

Don't touch the markets either long or short unless you want to lose everything. Volatility is likely to hit infinite levels before falling to a level approaching zero on a market meltdown as the Fed and the government collapse. Even if you managed to be right about EVERYTHING, you may not be able to get your money out of the markets before it turns into worthless paper.

Despite all the (stupid) rhetoric I've seen here and elsewhere lately, gold and silver are the only ways to go, really. Gold trolls like Yumyum like to prance about every time there is a correction, pretending that they have been right all along, but here we are, up 30% from where we were when he said it was all going to collapse. Those people who have been calling for the end of the gold bull market have been wrong for ten years, and have totally ignored the fundamentals the whole time. Do not listen to them. Just BTFD.

[Seraphim]

It largely has to do with demand from emerging economies that happen to contain the largest populations on earth. Grain, sugar, oil, wheat, corn, cotton...These things are VITAL for life as a human being. Now throw in 2 billion more people gaining access to these resources. That is DEMAND.


How is it possible that commodities can rise, in part because of demand, without an increase in business activity in a substantial amount of publicly traded companies?

[enoch150]

This is one of the main ways that foreign dollars are going to come pouring back into the country - when China, Japan, India, and others decide to unload dollars, they will use them to buy American commodities and assets, driving up the price. So we will have price increases in goods that foreigners want while we have a decrease in domestic business activity. The inflationary depression Dr. Paul has talked about.

I agree that foreign governments will buy American products at some point, just to dump dollars. But I don't buy the connection to decreased domestic business activity. For one thing, they won't just buy commodities, but also chemicals and planes and stuff like that, which would increase business activity. And for another, I seem to remember something about the Law of One Price, which, it would seem to me, means if foreign governments buy commodities here, driving up the price, and then dump those commodities in their own countries at non-inflated prices, someone would find it worth their while to buy the goods in other countries and ship them right back here. The difference in price would largely be limited to transportation costs and tariffs. Unless you're suggesting that foreign governments would simply stockpile commodities? But that would drive up prices in their countries, too. I can only imagine the riots that would run rampant in other countries if the governments stockpiled commodities while prices went through the roof.

No, both commodities and the stock market are either rising from inflation alone or from an increase in business activity plus inflation. I think, it was the latter. I don't see how commodities can rise from an increase in demand without an increase in business activity. It's possible for commodities to go up with a decrease in business activity (and by extension, a drop in the stock market), but that would be purely from inflation.

[YumYum]

Gold trolls like Yumyum

Cute.

[oyarde]

I think Seraphim is referring mostly to PMs.

However there is increasing demand for grains and oil in China and India and other emerging markets too.

Food stuffs in general & energy .

[oyarde]

It largely has to do with demand from emerging economies that happen to contain the largest populations on earth. Grain, sugar, oil, wheat, corn, cotton...These things are VITAL for life as a human being. Now throw in 2 billion more people gaining access to these resources. That is DEMAND.

Yep.

[efiniti]

Heh, good luck with that. I wouldn't short the stock market. You'll be sitting on shorts for a while imo.

[enoch150]

It largely has to do with demand from emerging economies that happen to contain the largest populations on earth. Grain, sugar, oil, wheat, corn, cotton...These things are VITAL for life as a human being. Now throw in 2 billion more people gaining access to these resources. That is DEMAND.

My question was how there could be an increase in demand for those things without it registering in the stock markets. An increase in demand for oil ought to affect the bottom line for CVX, XOM, COP, etc. An increase in demand for agricultural products ought to affect the bottom line for DE, MON, CRESY, etc. Those companies would then have an increased demand for steel, financing, business services, etc. And the people causing the increased demand for oil don't burn oil straight out. They burn it in something, like power plants, or cars, or furnaces in homes, which means there are more cars and homes, which means the auto makers, home builders, and lumber companies will also have their bottom lines affected. Or at least the top line.

You see where I'm going? If there is an increased demand for those commodities in particular, it will ripple through a substantial part of the economy, including publicly traded companies. If commodities are going up as a result of inflation + demand, then I don't see how it is possible that the stock market can go up only through inflation and not demand.

[Seraphim]

You are correct. But it seems you are a bit Western Centric in your assessment...Have you not been following stock markets in India, China, Brazil, Singapore...? They are VASTLY outperforming American and British stocks.

Your ripple effect of commodities demand IS being felt by many agri-businesses etc (I.e, people investing in the producers of said commodities and commodities driven products). The main difference is that in the USA you have stagnant demand as prices rise and the crack..I mean credit..contracts. In emerging economies who are not saturated with debt, they are seeing their market places open up and they are no where near as under water as the avg American/Brit/French/Canadian/Australian.



My question was how there could be an increase in demand for those things without it registering in the stock markets. An increase in demand for oil ought to affect the bottom line for CVX, XOM, COP, etc. An increase in demand for agricultural products ought to affect the bottom line for DE, MON, CRESY, etc. Those companies would then have an increased demand for steel, financing, business services, etc. And the people causing the increased demand for oil don't burn oil straight out. They burn it in something, like power plants, or cars, or furnaces in homes, which means there are more cars and homes, which means the auto makers, home builders, and lumber companies will also have their bottom lines affected. Or at least the top line.

You see where I'm going? If there is an increased demand for those commodities in particular, it will ripple through a substantial part of the economy, including publicly traded companies. If commodities are going up as a result of inflation + demand, then I don't see how it is possible that the stock market can go up only through inflation and not demand.

[amonasro]

I'm no expert, but I feel like as long as the FED continues their QE, the market will continue to rise. That is, we won't see a huge crash for quite some time.

[enoch150]

You are correct. But it seems you are a bit Western Centric in your assessment...Have you not been following stock markets in India, China, Brazil, Singapore...? They are VASTLY outperforming American and British stocks.

Your ripple effect of commodities demand IS being felt by many agri-businesses etc (I.e, people investing in the producers of said commodities and commodities driven products). The main difference is that in the USA you have stagnant demand as prices rise and the crack..I mean credit..contracts. In emerging economies who are not saturated with debt, they are seeing their market places open up and they are no where near as under water as the avg American/Brit/French/Canadian/Australian.

No, I don't follow Singapore. There is a saying - Don't fight the Fed. What is happening in Brazil, India, and China?

India and China are also listed as two of the 25 governments most vulnerable due to rising food prices.

http://www.businessinsider.com/governments-food-price-inflation-2011-1#25-venezuela-1

I'll skip buying stocks in them for a while, thank you. When you're expecting massive price inflation in food, countries where the average household already spends 40-50% of their income on food can become a bit unstable. If there is a Great Collapse, then I'll buy.

[Seraphim]

1) I will fight the fed. Agorism.

2) Rising food prices is when you WANT to buy into agri busines stocks. When a good has higher demand then supply, the companies that produce said goods PERFORM WELL.

3) I told you what is going on in India, Brazil, China..."They are VASTLY outperforming American and British stocks."

4) These countries are vulnerable to rising food prices because those countries have exploding DEMAND and VERY high inflation. The govts are not exposed to said price increases...PEOPLE ARE. Wanna make some money and help feed some hungry people? Invest in companies in those countries that are producing food.


No, I don't follow Singapore. There is a saying - Don't fight the Fed. What is happening in Brazil, India, and China?

India and China are also listed as two of the 25 governments most vulnerable due to rising food prices.

http://www.businessinsider.com/governments-food-price-inflation-2011-1#25-venezuela-1

I'll skip buying stocks in them for a while, thank you. When you're expecting massive price inflation in food, countries where the average household already spends 40-50% of their income on food can become a bit unstable. If there is a Great Collapse, then I'll buy.

[enoch150]

I'm not sure I made myself clear.

1. Don't fight the Fed - through the stock market. The Fed will always win.

2. That's only true in countries that respect property rights. There is the risk of expropriation.

3. India raised its interest rate to 5.5%. China raised its interest rate to 5.81%. Brazil raised its interest rate to 11.25%. See point #1.

4. Governments are exposed to rising food prices through civil unrest, rioting, and rebellion. Gerald Celente says something like "when people have nothing left to lose, they lose it". When you can't afford food, you have nothing left to lose.

At this time, I believe there is less risk investing in US companies that do business globally. But the list of stocks I actually would buy right now is very short. Lately I've just been accumulating cash, waiting for an opportunity.


1) I will fight the fed. Agorism.

2) Rising food prices is when you WANT to buy into agri busines stocks. When a good has higher demand then supply, the companies that produce said goods PERFORM WELL.

3) I told you what is going on in India, Brazil, China..."They are VASTLY outperforming American and British stocks."

4) These countries are vulnerable to rising food prices because those countries have exploding DEMAND and VERY high inflation. The govts are not exposed to said price increases...PEOPLE ARE. Wanna make some money and help feed some hungry people? Invest in companies in those countries that are producing food.