Imperial
01-19-2011, 08:06 AM
I have the first in an 8-part series up at the newly-launched website Red Racing Horses on the math behind Republicans' poor support in the Hispanic community. An excerpt (http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/18/minority-report-part-1-hispanic-voters-numbers-and-the-gop):
The biggest lesson from this mixed record we can take is that Hispanic voters are not a monolithic entity. This can be particularly seen in the national House percentiles. In 2006, a Democratic wave year, Democrats did particularly well with Hispanic voters. However, this advantage was far less pronounced in 2010, an extremely strong year for the GOP. This effect can be seen down-ballot, where the individual dynamics of a given race and state can have a significant impact on the loyalty of the Latino electorate. For example, the deterioration of the GOP’s support in the Nevada senatorial races may be attributable to poor messaging from nominee Sharron Angle in 2010. Similarly, the growth in support for Republican candidates in the California senatorial races may be attributable to the relatively more moderate reputation of Senate candidate Carly Fiorina compared to her predecessor Dick Mountjoy.
We have new posts up every day and you may see some quote from a familiar state representative soon, so stay tuned!
The biggest lesson from this mixed record we can take is that Hispanic voters are not a monolithic entity. This can be particularly seen in the national House percentiles. In 2006, a Democratic wave year, Democrats did particularly well with Hispanic voters. However, this advantage was far less pronounced in 2010, an extremely strong year for the GOP. This effect can be seen down-ballot, where the individual dynamics of a given race and state can have a significant impact on the loyalty of the Latino electorate. For example, the deterioration of the GOP’s support in the Nevada senatorial races may be attributable to poor messaging from nominee Sharron Angle in 2010. Similarly, the growth in support for Republican candidates in the California senatorial races may be attributable to the relatively more moderate reputation of Senate candidate Carly Fiorina compared to her predecessor Dick Mountjoy.
We have new posts up every day and you may see some quote from a familiar state representative soon, so stay tuned!