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Agorism
01-17-2011, 05:48 PM
Scientists warn California could be struck by winter ‘superstorm’

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110117/us_yblog_thelookout/scientists-warn-california-could-be-struck-by-winter-superstorm


A group of more than 100 scientists and experts say in a new report that California faces the risk of a massive "superstorm" that could flood a quarter of the state's homes and cause $300 billion to $400 billion in damage. Researchers point out that the potential scale of destruction in this storm scenario is four or five times the amount of damage that could be wrought by a major earthquake.
It sounds like the plot of an apocalyptic action movie, but scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey warned federal and state emergency officials that California's geological history shows such "superstorms" have happened in the past, and should be added to the long list of natural disasters to worry about in the Golden State.
The threat of a cataclysmic California storm has been dormant for the past 150 years. Geological Survey director Marcia K. McNutt told the New York Times that a 300-mile stretch of the Central Valley was inundated from 1861-62. The floods were so bad that the state capital had to be moved to San Francisco, and Governor Leland Stanford had to take a rowboat to his own inauguration, the report notes. Even larger storms happened in past centuries, over the dates 212, 440, 603, 1029, 1418, and 1605, according to geological evidence.
The risk is gathering momentum now, scientists say, due to rising temperatures in the atmosphere, which has generally made weather patterns more volatile.
The scientists built a model that showed a storm could last for more than 40 days and dump 10 feet of water on the state. The storm would be goaded on by an "atmospheric river" that would move water "at the same rate as 50 Mississippis discharging water into the Gulf of Mexico," according to the AP. Winds could reach 125 miles per hour, and landslides could compound the damage, the report notes.
Such a superstorm is hypothetical but not improbable, climate researchers warn. "We think this event happens once every 100 or 200 years or so, which puts it in the same category as our big San Andreas earthquakes," Geological Survey scientist Lucy Jones said in a press release.
Federal and state emergency management officials convened a conference about emergency preparations for possible superstorms last week. You can read the whole report here.

Vessol
01-17-2011, 05:54 PM
Good movie

http://www.moviewallpaper.net/wpp/The_Day_After_Tomorrow_Wallpaper_8_800.jpg

oyarde
01-17-2011, 05:56 PM
California was very lightly populated by Native Americans .

sailingaway
01-17-2011, 05:57 PM
It used to snow in southern California in the past, as well. My grandmother threw snowballs a couple of times as a student at UCLA, and my Dad sledded down Barham Blvd, near the studios, as a pre-teen.

I don't see that coming back, but I wouldn't mind it. We don't usually have precipitation at the times it is cold enough for snow.

But since supposedly it is 'warming', why would we be concerned about something that happened 150 years ago when it was so much 'colder'?

And if a superstorm happened every 150 years or so, we've lived through it before.

4th generation Californian.

pcosmar
01-17-2011, 06:15 PM
That should take care of their water shortage.

Kylie
01-17-2011, 06:20 PM
Fear! Fear! Fear!!!!!!!


Maybe God really is pissed.

dannno
01-17-2011, 06:30 PM
California was very lightly populated by Native Americans .

Where did you hear that?!

I heard Native Americans used to have pollution issues in the L.A. basin just from all the campfires..

oyarde
01-17-2011, 06:35 PM
Where did you hear that?!

I heard Native Americans used to have pollution issues in the L.A. basin just from all the campfires..

Well , if you look at the tribes and geographic areas they lived , California was basically populated by smaller , less populated tribes .

oyarde
01-17-2011, 06:37 PM
Where did you hear that?!

I heard Native Americans used to have pollution issues in the L.A. basin just from all the campfires..

I cannot imagine them really having any long term pollution problems . I suppose if you were smoking a bunch of salmon for the winter etc . , you may create a temp pollution scenario ...

oyarde
01-17-2011, 06:43 PM
Cental Valley , the Miwoks , Maidu , Yokuts , the desert , the Mojave , coastal , Yuroks .

oyarde
01-17-2011, 06:48 PM
Estimated population in 1770 43,500 , total , all those tribes together .

dannno
01-17-2011, 06:50 PM
I cannot imagine them really having any long term pollution problems . I suppose if you were smoking a bunch of salmon for the winter etc . , you may create a temp pollution scenario ...

Ya that could have been it, the point of the story of course is that East L.A. is prone, geographically, to having bad pollution..

Not sure why the relatively sparse population, it is a very temperate climate though there was probably a lot of farming which takes up space.. There's also great fishing.

The Chumash tribe numbered in the tens of thousands and lived on the coast of California. They weren't the only tribe here, so I don't think it was THAT sparse.. but there may have been a lot more Native Americans out where the buffalo roamed.

dannno
01-17-2011, 06:51 PM
Estimated population in 1770 43,500 , total , all those tribes together .

What about Chumash? That's over 10,000 as well, and they only went from malibu to paso robles, on the coast.. then there's ALL of LA, san diego, northern california, central valley, I duno if I buy the 40k+ number.

oyarde
01-17-2011, 06:54 PM
What about Chumash? That's over 10,000 as well.

Well , I am getting old , cannot remember everything. Highest estimate of Chamush was 20,500 or so , add that to the 43,500 .

oyarde
01-17-2011, 06:54 PM
64 k

oyarde
01-17-2011, 06:56 PM
What about Chumash? That's over 10,000 as well, and they only went from malibu to paso robles, on the coast.. then there's ALL of LA, san diego, northern california, central valley, I duno if I buy the 40k+ number.

Yeah that number includes the Central Valley and the desert .

oyarde
01-17-2011, 06:57 PM
Maybe the climate was not always so temperate a few hundred years ago ?

sevin
01-17-2011, 06:58 PM
"Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay."

dannno
01-17-2011, 07:09 PM
Maybe the climate was not always so temperate a few hundred years ago ?

Have you been all over California? Southern California is a desert with water being pumped into it for irrigation to make it look like it's not a desert. It's still well over 100 degrees all summer long inland, but not on the coast where we get the cool breezes from the ocean. It rarely gets to 80 in the summer. Then there are all the giant redwood forests in northern california that have been around for centuries or longer, I can't imagine it was that hot up there.

I don't think California has always been the way it is, but I don't think it has changed drastically in the last 500-1000 years, except for what humans have done to bring more water down to so cal.

dannno
01-17-2011, 07:11 PM
"Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay."

The song and lyrics are worth posting, this is one of the greatest songs of all time.. and anybody who hates anything about CA will love the lyrics at least.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCEeAn6_QJo


Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will.
I sure could use a vacation from this

Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks

Here in this hopeless fucking hole we call LA
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any fucking time. Any fucking day.
Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay.

Fret for your figure and
Fret for your latte and
Fret for your lawsuit and
Fret for your hairpiece and
Fret for your prozac and
Fret for your pilot and
Fret for your contract and
Fret for your car.

It's a
Bullshit three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks

Here in this hopeless fucking hole we call LA
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any fucking Time. Any fucking day.
Learn to swim, I'll see you down in Arizona bay.

Some say a comet will fall from the sky.
Followed by meteor showers and tidal waves.
Followed by faultlines that cannot sit still.
Followed by millions of dumbfounded dipshits.

Some say the end is near.
Some say we'll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will cuz
I sure could use a vacation from this

STUPID shit, silly shit, stupid shit...
[. From: http://www.elyrics.net/read/t/tool-lyrics/aenima-lyrics.html .]

One great big festering neon distraction,
I've a suggestion to keep you all occupied.

Learn to swim.

Mum's gonna fix it all soon.
Mum's comin' round to put it back the way it ought to
be.

Learn to swim.

Fuck L Ron Hubbard and
Fuck all his clones.
Fuck all these gun-toting
Hip gangster wannabes.

Learn to swim.

Fuck retro anything.
Fuck your tattoos.
Fuck all you junkies and
Fuck your short memory.

Learn to swim.

Fuck smiley glad-hands,
With hidden agendas.
Fuck these dysfunctional,
Insecure actresses.

Learn to swim.

Cuz I'm praying for rain
And I'm praying for tidal waves
I wanna see the ground give way.
I wanna watch it all go down.
Mum please flush it all away.
I wanna see it go right in and down.
I wanna watch it go right in.
Watch you flush it all away.

Time to bring it down again.
Don't just call me pessimist.
Try and read between the lines.

I can't imagine why you wouldn't
Welcome any change, my friend.

I wanna see it come down.
Come down.
Suck it down.
Flush it down.

oyarde
01-17-2011, 07:14 PM
Have you been all over California? Southern California is a desert with water being pumped into it for irrigation to make it look like it's not a desert. It's still well over 100 degrees all summer long inland, but not on the coast where we get the cool breezes from the ocean. It rarely gets to 80 in the summer. Then there are all the giant redwood forests in northern california that have been around for centuries or longer, I can't imagine it was that hot up there.

I don't think California has always been the way it is, but I don't think it has changed drastically in the last 500-1000 years, except for what humans have done to bring more water down to so cal.

Yeah , as an example , the Mojave indians numbered , maybe 3,000 . Those had to be some tough hombres . I imagine they ended up pushed where they ended up and the land they got would not support much population . When I mentioned climate , I was thinking more of storms etc .

dannno
01-17-2011, 07:15 PM
Yeah , as an example , the Mojave indians numbered , maybe 3,000 . Those had to be some tough hombres . I imagine they ended up pushed where they ended up and the land they got would not support much population . When I mentioned climate , I was thinking more of storms etc .

Ya you're right, all you'd have to do is alter the jetstream and we would have drastically different weather patterns.

oyarde
01-17-2011, 07:17 PM
Ya you're right, all you'd have to do is alter the jetstream and we would have drastically different weather patterns.

I really do not know , but it could explain , with all the available fishing , why there were so many more coastal peoples on the East than the West .

dannno
01-17-2011, 07:22 PM
I really do not know , but it could explain , with all the available fishing , why there were so many more coastal peoples on the East than the West .

Well part of it has to be the mountains.. there are no real mountain ranges on the east coast except around Kentucky and Tennessee. California is almost all mountain ranges, except the central valley, the Los Angeles Great Basin, and the deserts (even a lot of those are high deserts)

There are small valleys and areas to live all over, great for small tribes.

oyarde
01-17-2011, 07:23 PM
Well part of it has to be the mountains.. there are no real mountain ranges on the east coast except around Kentucky and Tennessee. California is almost all mountain ranges, except the central valley, the Los Angeles Great Basin, and the deserts (even a lot of those are high deserts)

There are small valleys and areas to live all over, great for small tribes.

That may be it .

oyarde
01-17-2011, 07:43 PM
Is there any previous scientific data out there to show there were superstorms like mentioned in the article ?

oyarde
01-17-2011, 08:02 PM
I hafta ponder it . Seems as though those Coastal tribes with the pristine and abundant fish , seals , wildlife and fairly unmolested for hundreds of years would have grown larger .....

oyarde
01-17-2011, 08:06 PM
None of them were estimated at more than around 20 K population.

oyarde
01-17-2011, 08:09 PM
Gelogical evidence in the article last mentions an event in 1605 .

Brian4Liberty
01-17-2011, 08:10 PM
Yeah, I was pretty worried about this today as a got a suntan... ;)

On a serious note, here's the real problem: We have created a situation in Central California that is very similar to New Orleans. Especially within the last 20 years, massive amounts of housing have been built on farmland that is also a flood plain (which is why it was such good farmland). The water is held back by aging earthen levees and aqueducts that send the water to the SF Bay and the southern desert. So yes, in a big storm, it will eventually be like New Orleans for a lot of people living on floodplains. It actually occurs relatively frequently. Of course since the 1986 incident, and even 1997, untold housing developments sprung up in those previously flooded areas. What was flooded farmland in previous floods will all be housing in the next one.


February 1986: Northern California and western Nevada floods

On February 11, a vigorous low pressure system drifted east out of the Pacific, creating a Pineapple Express[5] that lasted through February 24 unleashing unprecedented amounts of rain on northern California and western Nevada.[6] The nine-day storm over California constituted half of the average annual rainfall for the year.[1] Record flooding occurred in three streams that drain to the southern part of the San Francisco Bay area.[6] Extensive flooding occurred in the Napa and Russian rivers. Napa, north of San Francisco, recorded their worst flood to this time[7] while nearby Calistoga recorded 29 inches (740 mm) of rain in 10 days, creating a once-in-a-thousand-year rainfall event.[5] Records for 24-hour rain events were reported in the Central Valley and in the Sierra. One thousand-year rainfalls were recorded in the Sierras.[1] The heaviest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded in the Central Valley at 17.60 inches (447 mm) occurred on February 17 at Four Trees in the Feather River basin.[5] In Sacramento, nearly 10 inches (250 mm) of rain fell in an 11-day period.[1] System breaks in the Sacramento River basin included disastrous levee breaks in the Olivehurst and Linda area on the Feather River.[1] Linda, about 40 miles (64 km) north of Sacramento, was devastated after the levee broke on the Yuba River's south fork, forcing thousands of residents to evacuate.[8] In the San Joaquin River basin and the Delta, levee breaks along the Mokelumne River caused flooding in the community of Thornton and the inundation of four Delta islands.[1] Lake Tahoe rose 6 inches (150 mm) as a result of high inflow.[6] The California flood resulted in 13 deaths, 50,000 people evacuated and over $400 million in property damage. [1] 3000 residents of Linda joined in a class action lawsuit Paterno v. State of California, which eventually reached the California Supreme Court in 2004. The California high court affirmed the District Court of Appeal's decision that said California was liable for millions of dollars in damages.[8]

January and March 1995: California flood

During the events of January and March 1995, over 100 stations recorded their greatest 1-day rainfalls in that station’s history. The major brunt of the January storms hit the Sacramento River Basin and resulted in small stream flooding primarily due to storm drainage system failures, though flooding affected nearly every part of the state. The Salinas River exceeded its previous measured record crest by more than four feet, which was within a foot or two of the reputed crest of the legendary 1862 flood. The Napa River set a new peak record, and the Russian and Pajaro rivers approached their record peaks. 28 people were killed and the flood cost $1.8 billion.[1]

New Year's Day 1997: Northern California flood

A series of tropical storms collectively called a pineapple connection hit northern California from late December 1996 to early January 1997.[1] December 1996 was one of the wettest Decembers on record.[1] The Klamath River on California's North Coast experienced significant flooding which led to the river permanently changing course in some areas.[9] The Klamath National Forest experienced its worst flood since 1974.[9] Unprecedented flows from rain surged into the Feather River basin while melted snow surged into the San Joaquin River basin.[9] Rain fell at elevations up to 11,000 feet (3,400 m), prompting snow melt.[9][1] The Cosumnes River, a tributary to the San Joaquin River, bore the brunt of the flooding.[9] Sacramento was spared, though levee failures flooded Olivehurst, Arboga, Wilton, Manteca, and Modesto.[10] Massive landslides in the Eldorado National Forest east of Sacramento closed Highway 50.[9] Damages totaled US$35 million (1997 dollars).[9]

Watersheds in the Sierra Nevada were already saturated by the time three subtropical storms added more than 30 inches (760 mm) of rain in late December 1996 and early January 1997. [1] Levee failures due to breaks or overtopping in the Sacramento River Basin resulted in extensive damages.[1] In the San Joaquin River Basin, dozens of levees failed throughout the river system and produced widespread flooding.[1] The Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta also experienced several levee breaks and levee overtopping.[1] 48 counties were declared disaster areas, including all 46 counties in northern California.[1] Over 23,000 homes and businesses, agricultural lands, bridges, roads and flood management infrastructures – valued at about $2 billion – were damaged. Nine people were killed and 120,000 people were evacuated from their homes.[1] 300 square miles (780 km2) were flooded, including the Yosemite Valley, which flooded for the first time since 1861-62.[1]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floods_in_California#February_1986:_Northern_Calif ornia_and_western_Nevada_floods

Brian4Liberty
01-17-2011, 08:18 PM
California was very lightly populated by Native Americans .

Modern irrigation, flood control and farming does wonders...

oyarde
01-17-2011, 08:30 PM
Since 1029 , the article lists 1418 & 1605 , so it is due ??

sailingaway
01-17-2011, 09:06 PM
I cannot imagine them really having any long term pollution problems . I suppose if you were smoking a bunch of salmon for the winter etc . , you may create a temp pollution scenario ...

Actually, L.A. was called 'the valley of the blue smoke' by the natives because dust, smoke, you name it, always has pushed up against the San Gabriel mountains from the ocean breezes blowing inland.

oyarde
01-17-2011, 09:16 PM
Actually, L.A. was called 'the valley of the blue smoke' by the natives because dust, smoke, you name it, always has pushed up against the San Gabriel mountains from the ocean breezes blowing inland.

I could see the dust , driven by wind accumulating .

Acala
01-17-2011, 09:26 PM
Well , if you look at the tribes and geographic areas they lived , California was basically populated by smaller , less populated tribes .

Actually there is pretty strong evidence that the majority of the native population of the western hemisphere was wiped out long before Europeans ever saw them because the first European contact set off a series of plagues that spread like wildfire. If you are interested in what the native world looked like before European contact, read 1491.

oyarde
01-17-2011, 09:29 PM
Actually there is pretty strong evidence that the majority of the native population of the western hemisphere was wiped out long before Europeans ever saw them because the first European contact set off a series of plagues that spread like wildfire. If you are interested in what the native world looked like before European contact, read 1491.

I am familiar with the smallpox etc .

oyarde
01-17-2011, 09:35 PM
Actually there is pretty strong evidence that the majority of the native population of the western hemisphere was wiped out long before Europeans ever saw them because the first European contact set off a series of plagues that spread like wildfire. If you are interested in what the native world looked like before European contact, read 1491.

By Charles Mann ? I would like to read that .

oyarde
01-18-2011, 02:50 PM
Actually there is pretty strong evidence that the majority of the native population of the western hemisphere was wiped out long before Europeans ever saw them because the first European contact set off a series of plagues that spread like wildfire. If you are interested in what the native world looked like before European contact, read 1491.

Smallpox wiped out the Mandan tribe in 1837 . Is there any evidence of any disease being further West prior to that ? The Mandan lived on the Missouri River in the Dakotas .

oyarde
01-18-2011, 03:57 PM
Looks like some smallpox maybe West Coast tribes in 1770's , but I cannot find much on it .

oyarde
01-18-2011, 04:17 PM
Looks like some smallpox maybe West Coast tribes in 1770's , but I cannot find much on it .

Looks like it was in the Northwest and not California tribes ..

oyarde
01-18-2011, 04:43 PM
So , is it possible these super storms hurt the population every two to four hundred years enough that no tribe got past twenty thousand .... ?

oyarde
01-18-2011, 07:40 PM
I think so ..

Reason
01-18-2011, 07:44 PM
Should be fun...

oyarde
01-18-2011, 07:44 PM
Ya that could have been it, the point of the story of course is that East L.A. is prone, geographically, to having bad pollution..

Not sure why the relatively sparse population, it is a very temperate climate though there was probably a lot of farming which takes up space.. There's also great fishing.

The Chumash tribe numbered in the tens of thousands and lived on the coast of California. They weren't the only tribe here, so I don't think it was THAT sparse.. but there may have been a lot more Native Americans out where the buffalo roamed.

Between plains Bison & Wood Bison , there was once bison nearly everywhere except most of California and along the Eastern seaborne .

oyarde
01-18-2011, 07:53 PM
Sweeeeet! Should be fun to watch from my 2nd floor apartment of which I couldn't care less if it was fucked up.

What if the first story washes out ?

oyarde
01-18-2011, 07:53 PM
Your renters insurance covers floods ?

Carson
01-18-2011, 08:13 PM
http://photos.imageevent.com/stokeybob/thenewera/globalwarmingturkeyrippedofffromRockIsDead.jpg