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View Full Version : If Ron Paul runs, I think he has a decent chance




Matthew Zak
01-14-2011, 03:38 PM
He's a lot more popular, and powerful now than he was in 2007.

His son is the face of the Tea Party, and an ally in the Senate.

We have like-minded politicians (Gary Johnson, etc) gaining notoriety, thus perpetuating the change in status-quo (if slightly).

Ron Paul's followers are more experienced and knowledgeable about the entire process than they were 3 years ago -- and there are more of them.

Ron Paul boldly predicted the Great Recession that we're in and gave reasons for it before it happened. After that, who could possibly mock him on the economy? Who could possibly outshine him on the economy for that matter?

But what I find to be Ron Paul's biggest advantage is that he's going to attract jaded democrats and independents who are angry at Obama for continuing the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. His opponents may change their tune this time around but I don't see that as being very likely. In order to turn that into an advantage we need to continue to educate our peers on why our current foreign policy is so unhealthy.

To do our part and be effective I think we all owe it to Ron Paul, should he choose to run, to be very active in educating our peers, as well as learning our way around delegation.

We need to be ready.

Philhelm
01-14-2011, 03:44 PM
The problem is that any jaded Democrats or Independents won't be worth anything unless they register as a Republican in order to vote for Ron Paul in the primary. If Ron Paul were to win the primary, he'd have a really good shot in my opinion, but the most difficult battle will be the primary, sadly. Either way, I'm pumped about a potential Ron Paul 2012 race.

sailingaway
01-14-2011, 03:48 PM
Me too, and I completely agree on the independents bit. WE HAVE TO get independents to register. That is the key.

If you looked at the breakdown of the Ron Paul 41%, Obama 42% Rasmussen poll it was based on the fact that independents overwhelmingly like Ron, and PPP's polls this year determined that his independent support is WAY more than any other GOP candidate gets. There are more independents than either GOP or DEm right now, but no separate primaries -- we NEED to get mass registration to GOP, and that has to happen early enough to impact the primaries.

If we don't succeed at getting independents to where they can vote for Ron in the primaries, it doesn't matter how popular he is with them.

Bruehound
01-14-2011, 03:49 PM
The problem is that any jaded Democrats or Independents won't be worth anything unless they register as a Republican in order to vote for Ron Paul in the primary. If Ron Paul were to win the primary, he'd have a really good shot in my opinion, but the most difficult battle will be the primary, sadly. Either way, I'm pumped about a potential Ron Paul 2012 race.

Don't forget many states have open primaries and the most important difference from 2008 is with a sitting Dem president, it is highly unhlikely there will be high profile democratic primaries so crossovers will be way more likely this time. Huge numbers too.

hazek
01-14-2011, 03:53 PM
I think you're overestimating his chances because your underestimating the stark contrast that was present last time around where he was basically the only one with his talking points.

This time around I bet my last cent almost all of his opponents will borrow at least a line or two from his rhetoric and then we'll have a whole new problem where the rest of the voters wont know how to tell them apart.

Nothing would make me happier then Ron winning but unfortunately the propaganda machine and the power hungry crony government machine will not allow it.

sailingaway
01-14-2011, 03:55 PM
I think you're overestimating his chances because your underestimating the stark contrast that was present last time around where he was basically the only one with his talking points.

This time around I bet my last cent almost all of his opponents will borrow at least a line or two from his rhetoric and then we'll have a whole new problem where the rest of the voters wont know how to tell them apart.

Nothing would make me happier then Ron winning but unfortunately the propaganda machine and the power hungry crony government machine will not allow it.

Well, it is true they will try to cannibalize. Again, I think independents are the key, they are independent for a REASON, and I suspect they use the internet more than other groups. But if they don't register GOP, it won't help Ron.

AS for the rest, there isn't much we can do about it, so we need to focus where we CAN impact events.

Romulus
01-14-2011, 04:45 PM
We need a 'Ron Paul was Right' video to go viral. Sum it up in 6-8 minutes. 1 million plus views. This should be ready and waiting to be launched immediately after his announcement.

TheTyke
01-14-2011, 05:54 PM
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Ron Paul will win the general election. The toughest part will be winning the Republican Primary.

That's where we have to focus all our attention if we actually want him as president. Polls show Ron already tied vs. Obama, but far behind in a Republican primary.

I love the video idea, especially if it focuses on issues Republicans go for (spending/economy)

MRoCkEd
01-14-2011, 06:04 PM
WE HAVE TO get independents to register. That is the key.
Unfortunately, such a strategy has almost always proved ineffective, and thus a waste of resources. You might be able to gain half a percent doing this, but in the end it's about turning out registered Republicans.

speciallyblend
01-14-2011, 06:12 PM
The problem is that any jaded Democrats or Independents won't be worth anything unless they register as a Republican in order to vote for Ron Paul in the primary. If Ron Paul were to win the primary, he'd have a really good shot in my opinion, but the most difficult battle will be the primary, sadly. Either way, I'm pumped about a potential Ron Paul 2012 race.

this^^^^^^^^^^^^ i wouldn't mind if Ron paul broke one promise if the gop continues to alienate him! Ron Paul 2012 Indy Run, i know i know let me dream:)

speciallyblend
01-14-2011, 06:15 PM
Me too, and I completely agree on the independents bit. WE HAVE TO get independents to register. That is the key.

If you looked at the breakdown of the Ron Paul 41%, Obama 42% Rasmussen poll it was based on the fact that independents overwhelmingly like Ron, and PPP's polls this year determined that his independent support is WAY more than any other GOP candidate gets. There are more independents than either GOP or DEm right now, but no separate primaries -- we NEED to get mass registration to GOP, and that has to happen early enough to impact the primaries.

If we don't succeed at getting independents to where they can vote for Ron in the primaries, it doesn't matter how popular he is with them.

this is the key,everyone needs to register republican and attend and get involved in the gop asap! If folks did this simple thing. They would be the GOP;) the fact is there is no one rushing to gop meetings;) if the lp/cp/tp and indy folks would just show up to the gop meetings, WE WOULD BE THE GOP! That is THE BOTTOM LINE!!!

Thomas
01-14-2011, 06:20 PM
Unfortunately, such a strategy has almost always proved ineffective, and thus a waste of resources. You might be able to gain half a percent doing this, but in the end it's about turning out registered Republicans.

+1

erowe1
01-14-2011, 06:58 PM
Unfortunately, such a strategy has almost always proved ineffective, and thus a waste of resources. You might be able to gain half a percent doing this, but in the end it's about turning out registered Republicans.

In 2000 John McCain beat GW in Michigan (which had a relatively early primary that year) by getting Independents and Democrats to crossover and vote for him. I think the same happened in other states as well. McCain still didn't win, of course, but he made a contest out of it. And those nonrepublicans were definitely a factor of a lot more than a half a percent. I also have heard a lot of anecdotal evidence of Republicans in states with late primaries (like Indiana, where I now live) voting for Hillary in '08. Having an uncontested Democrat race will definitely result in more nonrepublicans voting in the GOP primaries in 2012.

On the other hand, while RP could definitely benefit from those votes, any strategy to campaign for them overtly would backfire with Republican voters. You don't want those Republicans thinking RP is the candidate the Democrats want. Any concerted efforts to get those votes would have to be done in ways that don't involve the official campaign or anyone who is publicly associated with Ron Paul making a public effort out of it. It would have to involve a lot of behind the scenes work with individuals taking the initiative to talk to Democrat party leaders, union leaders, community organizers, and such to try to get their people to vote for RP. RP and everyone publicly associated with him would have to have plausible deniability.

The places where this would work the most would be the places where Republicans make up only a small percentage of the population, so that just a fraction of the nonrepublicans crossing over there would make a big difference in the GOP primary. Where this would be most effective would be if in states that award delegates to the winners of each congressional district. California does that. So a focused effort to get crossover votes in the district that San Fransisco makes up could be a way to get an easy few RNC delegates with a minimal commitment of resources. Same thing with the Detroit area in Michigan. We could probably pick out a good handful of the best congressional districts to wage that strategy by identifying overwhelmingly Democrat districts in states with early open primaries.