Why Ron Paul will raise almost $18 million this quarter!!!

[Original_Intent]

Many of you are probably doing this right now :rolleyes:
and wondering what I have been smoking.

Now before you start yelling at me to stick to the campaigns goals and to get my head out of the clouds, trust me I have good statistical evidence to back me up.

I was just looking at the trend line over at RonPaulgraphs.com, which I spend way too much time at. and I noticed the end of quarter projections are getting up around 7 million. Not bad but not where we want to be!

But then I noticed a flaw in the trend line. It is a straight average line that goes up as the donations grow. It does not factor continued growth into the projection.

Then I noticed something else interesting. We have increased almost EXACTLY $175K each week over the previous week. We only have three weeks of data, that is true, and it will be interesting to see if it continues. However, for the current trend line to be accurate we would need to average about $500K per week - in other words we would need to DROP back down to previous levels for that to be accurate!

My calculation is assuming a continued $175K week over week growth. That may not turn out to be the case and only time will tell. However, it is what the data CURRENTLY indicates will happen!

That being said here are the numbers: (in thousands of dollars)

WEEK 1 321 (actual)
WEEK 2 501 (actual)
WEEK 3 676 (actual)
WEEK 4 850 (projected)
WEEK 5 1025 (projected)
WEEK 6 1200 (projected)
WEEK 7 1375 (projected)
WEEK 8 1550 (projected)
WEEK 9 1725 (projected)
WEEK 10 1900 (projected)
WEEK 11 2075 (projected)
WEEK 12 2250 (projected)
WEEK 13 2425 (projected)

TOTAL 17,872,000 (projected) :D

Please do not just look at the numbers and then post below and call me a buffoon! Read my methodology and if you understand statistical analysis you will know that I am correct. Even if we factor in for a dropoff in growth (which I think is unlikely with the advertising blitz that is coming) We should handily get the $12 million goal.

DO NOT get complacent! For this to happen we have to keep working as hard or harder than we have, we need a big end of October push and I hope that November 5th can live up to what it is looking like!

This is just for those who are feeling that the $12 million is out of reach... IT ISN'T!

[me3]

Growth rarely occurs in a straight line though.

It's dangerous to plan or place expectations on projecting a small dataset.

[Dustancostine]

I think your estimate is good. But I think your week 5 is low. The 5th of November is going to be huge.

[Original_Intent]

Growth rarely occurs in a straight line though.

It's dangerous to plan or place expectations on projecting a small dataset.

That is true, but wouldn't logic dictate that if anything growth would accelerate as the number of supporters grows and also as the advertising kicks in? That is why I think this may actually be a conservative guesstimate. It is certainly not "head in the clouds" numbers.

[LibertyEagle]

Well, we're going to miss our goal tomorrow unless donations dramatically increase tomorrow. That we know for sure.

[RP4ME]

Thanks for breaking it down! This is encourging! I think encoragemnet and fox news debtes ;) keep us flush with cash!

[partypooper]

why stop there? by your logic, in a few months he will be raising trillions...

[Seth M.]

I say 18 million... :p


when is the last day we can donate? is there one?

[xcalybur]

You are basis this on the growth curve which I could see staying constant like you said, but Nov 5th will put a kink in it. I think we will pull in between 1.5 and 3 Million that day alone. After Nov. 5th however it will drop off tremendously, probably back to early Oct levels and we will slowly grow again throughout the rest of the Quarter. The good news is that the Ron Paul ads will hit in mid-late Nov and should bring in a good influx of money.

[jointhefightforfreedom]

That Could Double with ADAM CUrry's PODCAST Comming up This WEd

[TVMH]

Growth in numbers of supporters is the intangible quantity here.

I expect a huge bump after the Tonight Show appearance.

[Hook]

It is true that donations have been growing exponentially, which is what you would expect as more people join the campaign. However, all exponential growth patterns break down after the law of diminishing returns comes into effect. What that point is in this campaign is anyone's guess.

[Original_Intent]

why stop there? by your logic, in a few months he will be raising trillions...

Actually you did not do the math or you were just making an off the cuff remark. Even if you projected this out another three months beyond this quarter, he would still be under 5 million a week. Not even close to a hundred million total, not even 1/10th of a BILLION, let alone a trillion.

Or maybe your hyperbole was just to emphasize your determination to be a wet blanket. Have you ever even taken a statistics class?

I certainly don't mind anyone pointing out flaws, but at least run the actual numbers before you make comments like that.


Trillions. :rolleyes:

[koob]

you know, i was thinking this same thing. the projections don't take into consideration exactly what you said.

[Original_Intent]

It is true that donations have been growing exponentially, which is what you would expect as more people join the campaign. However, all exponential growth patterns break down after the law of diminishing returns comes into effect. What that point is in this campaign is anyone's guess.

Yep, but that exponential growth "break down" in a marketing campaign does not happen until market saturation has occurred.

I am sure LibertyEagle will let us know when we are in danger of that happening! :D:D:D:D:D

[RP4ME]

You are basis this on the growth curve which I could see staying constant like you said, but Nov 5th will put a kink in it. I think we will pull in between 1.5 and 3 Million that day alone. After Nov. 5th however it will drop off tremendously, probably back to early Oct levels and we will slowly grow again throughout the rest of the Quarter. The good news is that the Ron Paul ads will hit in mid-late Nov and should bring in a good influx of money.

More people must commit to do that - and so far we only have about 4000 people thats cetainly not enough

[RP4ME]

It is true that donations have been growing exponentially, which is what you would expect as more people join the campaign. However, all exponential growth patterns break down after the law of diminishing returns comes into effect. What that point is in this campaign is anyone's guess.

Well teh good news is unlike Gulinai unlike Romney and Clinton Paul is raising alot of money for someone whose name ha sno where near staurated the US sheeple....i mean many have not even heard of him.....so if we educate we are in teh cat bird seat my firends nd thsi many will raise a butt load of dough

[csen]

As others have said, it's certainly not going to be linear growth -- I expect we'll see bumps towards the end of the months, on November 5th, and potentially during other spontaneous events throughout the quarter. What we don't know is how many other potential supporters lurk in the weeds, waiting to be convinced that we're viable, and others who haven't heard the message yet but will hear it and will be receptive to it. I think we'll hit the $12 million but wouldn't be surprised if that's due to an absolutely massive December ($6-7 million).

[Hook]

Yep, but that exponential growth "break down" in a marketing campaign does not happen until market saturation has occurred.

I am sure LibertyEagle will let us know when we are in danger of that happening! :D:D:D:D:D

Again, anyone's guess. Hopefully later than sooner.

[Jordan]

why stop there? by your logic, in a few months he will be raising trillions...

This is straight line, not exponential. It would take a billion weeks to reach the trillions.

[Original_Intent]

You are basis this on the growth curve which I could see staying constant like you said, but Nov 5th will put a kink in it. I think we will pull in between 1.5 and 3 Million that day alone. After Nov. 5th however it will drop off tremendously, probably back to early Oct levels and we will slowly grow again throughout the rest of the Quarter. The good news is that the Ron Paul ads will hit in mid-late Nov and should bring in a good influx of money.

I have no problem with kinks on the upward side of expectations. Even if the next week drops off while people recover fiscally, that really doesn't matter. Just look at it as "pre-contributions" for the next week!

[partypooper]

Or maybe your hyperbole was just to emphasize your determination to be a wet blanket. Have you ever even taken a statistics class?

I certainly don't mind anyone pointing out flaws, but at least run the actual numbers before you make comments like that.


Trillions. :rolleyes:

yes, it was a hyperbole that i hoped will get people donating as opposed to "projecting" others donating. we are very much behind the schedule and now we are behind the mere <500k schedule.

and i have two degrees in statistics.

[max]

if we had data of number of first time donors it would useful....thats where the growth will come from as opposed to the existing base donating over and over

[Original_Intent]

yes, it was a hyperbole that i hoped will get people donating as opposed to "projecting" others donating. we are very much behind the schedule and now we are behind the mere <500k schedule.

and i have two degrees in statistics.

ah well you certainly have the edge on me statistics-wise - by a couple of degrees! :D

As I said in my first post, this was not intended to get people complacent, it is intended to give them hope and see that it is acheivable!

I was not just projecting others donating, I will be an active participant, right now I am planning a Halloween contribution (small) and either $100 (likely) or $200 (if I can sweet talk my wife) on the November 5th day.

Thanks for clarifying your intentions. To me good news is more motivational than bad news!

[koob]

This is straight line, not exponential. It would take a billion weeks to reach the trillions.

i'm no expert on math but okay so if the donation rate was growing like: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. . . that would be exponential because it's doubling. yes?

but if it grows at a rate of, let' say, 1.3 then what does that mean? i can see the amount donated growing, but i don't know if exponential is the correct word.

[partypooper]

Thanks for clarifying your intentions. To me good news is more motivational than bad news!

well, whatever works :)

i have to apologize, i wasn't actually reading your numbers, just got a gist of it... am just very worried about the fundraising and i see so many "lets raise 10 million in an hour" posts...

[Jordan]

i'm no expert on math but okay so if the donation rate was growing like: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. . . that would be exponential because it's doubling. yes?

but if it grows at a rate of, let' say, 1.3 then what does that mean? i can see the amount donated growing, but i don't know if exponential is the correct word.

Arithmetic I believe.

[Original_Intent]

For aome reason linear growth sounds right, we should ask our statistician what it is called.

It is not exponential, but it takes growth trends into account.

Exponential growth would be silly and there is not data to support it.

[Hook]

i'm no expert on math but okay so if the donation rate was growing like: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. . . that would be exponential because it's doubling. yes?

but if it grows at a rate of, let' say, 1.3 then what does that mean? i can see the amount donated growing, but i don't know if exponential is the correct word.

It is exponential, just with an base of 1.3 instead of 2.0

[Hook]

For aome reason linear growth sounds right, we should ask our statistician what it is called.

It is not exponential, but it takes growth trends into account.

Exponential growth would be silly and there is not data to support it.

Actually the curve is exponential. It takes into account repeating donors as well as new ones that come on board every day.

[Original_Intent]

i'm no expert on math but okay so if the donation rate was growing like: 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. . . that would be exponential because it's doubling. yes?

but if it grows at a rate of, let' say, 1.3 then what does that mean? i can see the amount donated growing, but i don't know if exponential is the correct word.

I think even saying growth of 1.3 week over week might be overstating things (but who knows?) the thing with calculating it is the growth compounds (like interest) Like Hook said this is still exponential, it is just lowering the exponent from 2 to 1.3.

I just took the $175K per week increase which is more conservative. And like I and others have already mentioned, 3 weeks of data is pretty shaky to make projections on.

Bottom line: The $12 million is reachable and beatable - just like the original 500K goal the last week of Q3.

[me3]

That is true, but wouldn't logic dictate that if anything growth would accelerate as the number of supporters grows and also as the advertising kicks in? That is why I think this may actually be a conservative guesstimate. It is certainly not "head in the clouds" numbers.
Our supporters will not grow if we don't keep promoting Dr. Paul. I want RP to win, I am doing what I can, but reality is that if the campaign doesn't keep generating momentum with the money it has, growth is going to stagnate somewhat. Which is why we all need to go outside sometimes and tell people about Dr. Paul. Family, friends, neighbors and co-workers.


That Could Double with ADAM CUrry's PODCAST Comming up This WEd
I'll believe this when I see it. I'm starting to get the feeling that RP on DSC will be a bigger boost to Adam's #s than RPs. Adam has covered RP for 3 episodes and I haven't seen any kind of bump we could attribute to that.

[Paul4Prez]

We can't count on donations continuing to grow in December, with the holidays. We need to make sure October and November are off the charts. The campaign needs the money to book ad buys too....

[bp2519]

Although you are seeing exponential growth now, to keep it exponential everyone will need to continue to recruit people. Think of it in terms of MLM... the people at the top recruit the most but the people at the bottom need to also recruit in order for the growth to remain strong

[ChrisM]

Here's why donations will actually be closer to $16.7 million in 13 weeks given current data:

You only took the data out to te second derivative. While adding one more tier of realism to the graph that is provided by RonPaulGraphs.com, the data can be taken out at this point to teh third derivative, which is actually negative, showing that the rate of change of the rate of change is decreasing.



X f(x) f’(x) f’’(x) f’’’(x)/f’’(x) f’’’’(x)
0 $0.00
$321,054.00
1 $321,054.00 $180,620.00
$501,674.00 -3.23%
2 $822,728.00 $174,778.00 0
$676,452.00 -3.23%
3 $1,499,180.00 $169,124.95 0
$845,576.95 -3.23%
4 $2,344,756.95 $163,654.75 0
$1,009,231.71 -3.23%
5 $3,353,988.66 $158,361.48 0
$1,167,593.18 -3.23%
6 $4,521,581.85 $153,239.41 0
$1,320,832.60 -3.23%
7 $5,842,414.44 $148,283.01 0
$1,469,115.61 -3.23%
8 $7,311,530.05 $143,486.93 0
$1,612,602.53 -3.23%
9 $8,924,132.59 $138,845.96 0
$1,751,448.50 -3.23%
10 $10,675,581.08 $134,355.11 0
$1,885,803.61 -3.23%
11 $12,561,384.69 $130,009.51 0
$2,015,813.11 -3.23%
12 $14,577,197.81 $125,804.46
$2,141,617.57
13 $16,718,815.38


I used a percent rate of change for the third derivative, the farthest extension of the data, because otherwise, it would become possible to have negative donations. I have an Excel spreadsheet, OpenOffice spreadsheet, and PDF if somebody wants me to post links.

[blamx8]

I'm sorry if anyone has already seen this, I posted it last night with the intent of encouraging more effort from us all.

WARNING: I have not math or stats degree;)


"I was looking at our progress toward the 12M goal the other day and some of the line graphs that chart our projected results over the month and the quarter. I don’t know if anybody else gets a little discouraged at the projections that are lower than our quarterly goal so here is a little encouraging info for every one.

The stats I used are compiled from info at http://www.fec.gov . The daily stats that are shown there only include donations over $200. My assumption is that the smaller donations follow roughly the same percentage as larger donations week over week.

Because the dollar total from large donations is different than the actual total I am simply quoting percentages rather than dollar amounts.

Percentage of quarterly total donated through the 20th of the first month of the quarter:
1st Quarter: 4.73%
2nd Quarter: 5.49%
3rd Quarter: 11.52%
Average: 7.25%

As of 11:32 pm EST the total amount raised this quarter is $1,444,065 which is just over 12.03% of 12 million. Percentage wise we are off to a better start (toward goal) than in any other quarter.

Here’s the exciting part. If we get out and share the message enough to continue the exponential growth that has occurred so far we could blow away the 12 mill goal for the quarter. Spread the message of freedom.

I had a great week and had more people say that they are going to support Ron Paul than any previous week. One guy I talked with called his mom and told her that she should support Ron Paul. She said “You mean my doctor?” Yup, she had lived in TX and he had been her doctor. She had no idea he was running. She thought he was awesome and said she would absolutely support him also. Two for the price of one.

Let’s get out there and blow the top off this campaign!"

[Original_Intent]

Here's why donations will actually be closer to $16.7 million in 13 weeks given current data:

You only took the data out to te second derivative. While adding one more tier of realism to the graph that is provided by RonPaulGraphs.com, the data can be taken out at this point to teh third derivative, which is actually negative, showing that the rate of change of the rate of change is decreasing.



X f(x) f’(x) f’’(x) f’’’(x)/f’’(x) f’’’’(x)
0 $0.00
$321,054.00
1 $321,054.00 $180,620.00
$501,674.00 -3.23%
2 $822,728.00 $174,778.00 0
$676,452.00 -3.23%
3 $1,499,180.00 $169,124.95 0
$845,576.95 -3.23%
4 $2,344,756.95 $163,654.75 0
$1,009,231.71 -3.23%
5 $3,353,988.66 $158,361.48 0
$1,167,593.18 -3.23%
6 $4,521,581.85 $153,239.41 0
$1,320,832.60 -3.23%
7 $5,842,414.44 $148,283.01 0
$1,469,115.61 -3.23%
8 $7,311,530.05 $143,486.93 0
$1,612,602.53 -3.23%
9 $8,924,132.59 $138,845.96 0
$1,751,448.50 -3.23%
10 $10,675,581.08 $134,355.11 0
$1,885,803.61 -3.23%
11 $12,561,384.69 $130,009.51 0
$2,015,813.11 -3.23%
12 $14,577,197.81 $125,804.46
$2,141,617.57
13 $16,718,815.38


NICE! Yes I actually did notice that, but was too lazy to go to the effort of determining how much the increase was dropping off. I am impressed!

Let's get the $12 mill fast after that it is all gravy.

[Hook]

It is always dangerous to base predictions on a few data points. You maybe in the ballpark, but I think we are only doing educated guesses at this point.

[koob]

NICE! Yes I actually did notice that, but was too lazy to go to the effort of determining how much the increase was dropping off. I am impressed!

Let's get the $12 mill fast after that it is all gravy.



i don't understand the maths. calculus is not for me. but what i do know is that i think ron paul will get 12 million by the end of the quarter.

[Hook]

Why stop at the third? Why not the rate of the rate of the rate of the rate of change? :D

[ChrisM]

Why stop at the third? Why not the rate of the rate of the rate of the rate of change? :D
Because we don't have enough data points yet to even venture a guess :) Wait until next week and I will.

[Man from La Mancha]

I'm not into stats or the math, but just as a practical view, we should do very well because the fever people get when they discover Paul for one, and second for Ron to have a chance he has to have millions of people to back him. About 65 million or more by Nov.2008 and most will give. So every day he is getting 10's of thousands new people. If not=no win

18 mill very possible, even 100 mill.

.

[SouthernGuy15]

Every dollar donated RIGHT NOW will help this campaign grow!

Please donate today!

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/donate/

[Chip]

My prediction is 100 million by christmas. I have been following the numbers for months. An exponential curve fit to the graph consistantly underestimates. Each couple of days I check and my model underpredicts Paul's performance. Averaging several weeks of curves gives me an exponential curve to easily predict when Paul will hit $100 million. Anyone who thinks that exponential growth cannot continue forever must ask themselves - are we anywhere near to leveling off. Even the linear approx. people admit rate of growth is growing.

[chowda]

If you guys are using my numbers for your weekly amount, there is an adjustment.. someone pointed out an error to me.. I was losing more than $25k from the first week because of where I was placing the interpolated datapoints from the missing data from 10/3-10/4... so the number that was $321k is now $349k

now my weekly totals are only off by $3k instead of about $32k

sorry!

[Chip]

Paul will raise probably around $100 million by Christmas. The question is how much will that be worth by then. Anyone who thinks we are anywhere near leveling out, use logistic curve to fit.

[Original_Intent]

/bump for the day walkers. :)