Rigged polls and other nonsense

[Bradley in DC]

By other nonsense, I'm referring to juvenial tantrums that the polls are "rigged" without any attempt at substantiating their positions. Grow up. Dr. Paul himself is using your contributions to hire professional polling companies to conduct scientific polls for his campaign now. Kent verified this in his press conference.

I guarantee you that Dr. Paul does not spend money unnecessarily. No one affilitiated with the campaign would consider seriously anyone with the conspiracy-laden insecurities with a conviction that the polls are "rigged."

If you disagree, make your case like an informed, intelligent adult: The sample size was too small, the percent confidence level is not high enough, the margin of error is greater than average, etc. Forget the land line, youth, Republican likely voter arguments. There is a wealth of legitimate literature there within the profession addressing your concerns. Refute those studies in an informed, rational way if you disagree.

More broadly, there are some general parameters in politics. Yes, no doubt that there is a great deal of variety of opinions, styles, approaches, etc, and that this campaign is like no other I've ever seen--the lipstick lesbian silent movie for Dr. Paul, well, nevermind...

There ARE a few things that everyone agrees is a good idea: indentfy your supporters and get them out to vote.

There are some things that everyone agrees are bad ideas: attacking the media or making enemies of the media.

Please, I'm begging you, if you do truly support Dr. Paul and want the rEVOLution to succeed, keep these thoughts in mind. Thank you.

[inibo]

You are obviously a tool. If you weren't spending all you time online posting 3,581 messages on this forum you could be out doing something like getting Ron Paul on the ballot in DC... oh... never mind.

:D

[james1844]

Who has HQ hired?

Getting a polling agency is a super good idea. This will Ron and HQ up to date information about who his supporters are, where we are strong and where we are weak. Its a crucial part of managing a campaign.

Guys, - we are definetly top tier now. We're starting to look like a real presidential campaign! Congrats to all!

Best,

James

[Bradley in DC]

You are obviously a tool. If you weren't spending all you time online posting 3,581 messages on this forum you could be out doing something like getting Ron Paul on the ballot in DC... oh... never mind.

:D

:p

[speciallyblend]

Bradley the Multi-Tasker;)

[Meatwasp]

I remember when the polls were negative against Ron Reagan so they took their own and they turned out positive. I hope this happens in Ron Pauls polls;
Bradley let us know when you hear okay?

[ItsTime]

I am sorry but I have to disagree with this statement
Forget the land line, youth, Republican likely voter arguments Every single Ron Paul supporter I know personally will never be included in any of their polls.

I believe it is just a sound argument as
The sample size was too small, the percent confidence level is not high enough, the margin of error is greater than average, etc.

I also have another question about these polls. Are people with Vonage and other cable phones included on the list to call?

I do not think they are rigged or that it is a conspiracy. The polling method is outdated.

[Bradley in DC]

I think part of the problem is that people read too much importance into the polls. The only real poll that matters is when the House of Representatives reads the results of the electoral college votes confirming Dr. Paul's win!

Before that, of course, will be the poll of the Republican nominating convention delegates.

Before that will be the results of the state (or "state" in my case) primary elections. Popular opinion polls are snapshots in time. This early out they mostly reflect name ID and confirm that few people know who Dr. Paul is and why we need him to save our republic.

Friday I got my hair cut by the House Barber in the Rayburn House Office Building in the basement of the offices of many Congressmen and hearing rooms. Joe has cut the hair of Congressmen and staffers (and a few other neighbors) for decades. While chatting, I mentioned by agitating for Dr. Paul for president--and he did not know who he was. :( We have a lot of work to do.

Also, those huge percentages of people that are undecided, unsure or light in their supporter are probably not going to vote anyway. So, encouragingly, Dr. Paul's "true" support is, admittedly, higher than a casual reading of the polls suggest.

[Bradley in DC]

I think part of the problem is that people read too much importance into the polls. The only real poll that matters is when the House of Representatives reads the results of the electoral college votes confirming Dr. Paul's win!

Before that, of course, will be the poll of the Republican nominating convention delegates.

Before that will be the results of the state (or "state" in my case) primary elections. Popular opinion polls are snapshots in time. This early out they mostly reflect name ID and confirm that few people know who Dr. Paul is and why we need him to save our republic.

Friday I got my hair cut by the House Barber in the Rayburn House Office Building in the basement of the offices of many Congressmen and hearing rooms. Joe has cut the hair of Congressmen and staffers (and a few other neighbors) for decades. While chatting, I mentioned by agitating for Dr. Paul for president--and he did not know who he was. :( We have a lot of work to do.

Also, those huge percentages of people that are undecided, unsure or light in their support are probably not going to vote anyway. So, encouragingly, Dr. Paul's "true" support is, admittedly, higher than a casual reading of the polls suggest.

[paulitics]

Forget the land line, youth, Republican likely voter arguments.


I'm sorry, but those are factors and the are biased against Paul since he is an outlyer in these categories. You can't see it, fine, but stop bashing other people who do, and calling them conspriacy wackos, there is nothing conspiratorial about it. The majority, don't think the polls are rigged, or intentionally biased, just that they are inaccurate based on common sense logic. And there is nothing wrong with having a healthy debate about it. You know the number 1 objection I get, is "he can't win, he is only 2% in the polls." If I can explain it correctly, that he is likely higher than the polls reflect, I get a positive reaction. If I say yeah, the polls are accurate, he's only 2%, the conversation ends becasue they see him as a "no shot candidate".
My guess is the scientific polling RP does will be much higher than some of the polls that are so narrowly defined, and I'm glad they are doing it.

[Primbs]

While Paul may not be at two or five percent, he is certainly not near the lead yet.

This is still a wide open primary, first time in half a century. The front runners may not secure enough delegates to win on the first ballot at the convention.

The field is split so Ron Paul has an unusual chance to do very well and win certain primaries and caucuses.

[fj45lvr]

I am sick of the people that keep thinking that Paul has a massive amount of support out there that is essentially "invisible"....

WAKE UP....it is a "pipe dream".....when you are out there passing out flyers and such you begin to get a feel and only 4% of people even know of Dr. Paul let alone vote for him.....hopefully that changes.

Right now we have VERY dedicated supporters (small amount but fervent for the cause) we are mobilized to vote in polls and such but the idea that PAUL actually has a large share of the actual republican voters is just INSANITY.

[Seth M.]

There ARE a few things that everyone agrees is a good idea: indentfy your supporters and get them out to vote.

There are some things that everyone agrees are bad ideas: attacking the media or making enemies of the media.



You are 100% correct.

[paulitics]

I am sick of the people that keep thinking that Paul has a massive amount of support out there that is essentially "invisible"....

WAKE UP....it is a "pipe dream".....when you are out there passing out flyers and such you begin to get a feel and only 4% of people even know of Dr. Paul let alone vote for him.....hopefully that changes.

Right now we have VERY dedicated supporters (small amount but fervent for the cause) we are mobilized to vote in polls and such but the idea that PAUL actually has a large share of the actual republican voters is just INSANITY.

Im sick of it too. Right now, I think we are overconfidant in NH and Iowa, based on 6%. We need at least 30% to secure a comfortable victory in NH. In all honesty we are probably around 10% if you factor in the flaws of the polling, but Mitt Romney worked his ass off in these states, and we have a very steep uphill climb to catch him with little time left.

But to the average voter, 10% denotes hope, and 2% suggests time to throw in the towel. We can't afford to lose all those voters, if we don't explain to them how the polls work. The psychology of people not wanting to waste their vote on a "no shot" candidate is nothing to take lightly.

[Primbs]

I have to agree ten percent will give hope. The Paul campaign is starting to run radio ads.

[fj45lvr]

I think if we get 3rd place it would be something....unless something happens from the way it is now we will be lucky to get 3rd.

[paulitics]

I think if we get 3rd place it would be something....unless something happens from the way it is now we will be lucky to get 3rd.

I agree with Iowa, being 3rd place would be something. I think NH is winnable, but unfortunately I don't see us doing enough to ensure victory. Right now,were on pace for a 3rd palce finish. I wish Dr Paul would routinely visit the state because that will make a huge difference imo. If we win NH, the game is on.

[spivey378]

paul needs to live in NH

one family walk is hardly enough.

[dircha]

Right on, man!

I've been saying this for a long time now. I've been saying this since Ames.

Back at the time of the Ames straw poll, many people on this message board were saying things like, "Ron Paul has NH in the bag", "NH belongs to Ron Paul".

When I pointed out that at the time Ron Paul was polling at about 2% in NH when Mitt Romney was polling at 31%, these people wouldn't believe me.

Wishing a thing to be can not make it so. This isn't Peter Pan. You can not make Ron Paul win the election by clapping loudly and believing in him. Winning the GOP nomination is very, very hard, and as it stands now the odds are strongly against us winning the nomination.

If primaries were held today, not only would Ron Paul lose, he very likely wouldn't even register as a blip on the radar in delegates to the national convention. MASSIVE change needs to happen in the next 2.5 months or we WILL LOSE.

If you believe otherwise, you are delusional and lack the ability to rationally and coherently react to the realities on the ground in this campaign. If anyone here wants to be an effective supporter of Dr. Paul, the very first thing you should do is acquaint yourself with reality.

[dircha]

I agree with Iowa, being 3rd place would be something. I think NH is winnable, but unfortunately I don't see us doing enough to ensure victory. Right now,were on pace for a 3rd palce finish. I wish Dr Paul would routinely visit the state because that will make a huge difference imo. If we win NH, the game is on.

Not even close, unfortunately.

If the New Hampshire primary were held today, based on the average of scientific polling of support within the state that I am looking at, Ron Paul would finish 5th or 6th.

If Ron Paul finishes 5th or 6th in New Hampshire, he may as well drop out of the race.

[dircha]

Again, just to make where we stand clear and how serious this is.

Based on an average of scientific polls of support within the state over the past 30 days, Ron Paul polls BEHIND Huckabee in NH.

[Seth M.]

Speaking of:

here is a list of polls "the Hucks' are jamming...

copy paste link
huckabeepolls.blogspot.com

[paulitics]

Not even close, unfortunately.

If the New Hampshire primary were held today, based on the average of scientific polling of support within the state that I am looking at, Ron Paul would finish 5th or 6th.

If Ron Paul finishes 5th or 6th in New Hampshire, he may as well drop out of the race.

sorry, what I meant was, we are on place for 3rd "if" we keep a healthy momentum. If it were today, we would lose to FT, Giuliani, Romney and be very close with McCain and Huckster. A 5th or 6th place is where we would be. Agreed. New Hampshire is extremey competitive, and everyone is hitting it hard.

[Hook]

By other nonsense, I'm referring to juvenial tantrums that the polls are "rigged" without any attempt at substantiating their positions. Grow up. Dr. Paul himself is using your contributions to hire professional polling companies to conduct scientific polls for his campaign now. Kent verified this in his press conference.

I guarantee you that Dr. Paul does not spend money unnecessarily. No one affilitiated with the campaign would consider seriously anyone with the conspiracy-laden insecurities with a conviction that the polls are "rigged."

If you disagree, make your case like an informed, intelligent adult: The sample size was too small, the percent confidence level is not high enough, the margin of error is greater than average, etc. Forget the land line, youth, Republican likely voter arguments. There is a wealth of legitimate literature there within the profession addressing your concerns. Refute those studies in an informed, rational way if you disagree.

More broadly, there are some general parameters in politics. Yes, no doubt that there is a great deal of variety of opinions, styles, approaches, etc, and that this campaign is like no other I've ever seen--the lipstick lesbian silent movie for Dr. Paul, well, nevermind...

There ARE a few things that everyone agrees is a good idea: indentfy your supporters and get them out to vote.

There are some things that everyone agrees are bad ideas: attacking the media or making enemies of the media.

Please, I'm begging you, if you do truly support Dr. Paul and want the rEVOLution to succeed, keep these thoughts in mind. Thank you.

Maybe you should send this to Fox, since they keep saying we are "fixing" their text votes.