Redistricting Ideas

[MozoVote]

We probably should keep some topics going in this forum, or we'll lose it!

I took another whack at the Congressional Districts tonight - this time I tried to keep Winston Salem in district 5 and address the shortcomings I observed in my last map. That caused a cascade of other effects ... and it was almost not feasible...

The biggest problem is that putting W-S into one district makes it hard to cover western NC. You can't move district 12 much b/c of the VRA, so then you end up tugging the others around to make things fit.

(Also keep in mind the new census data will change the outcome, so this is mainly batting ideas around at this point.)

District 11 and 10 don't change much. Schuler (D) and Henry (R) would stay.

District 9, I had to squeeze up north into Iredell county. Although this looks strange, I doubt conservative Iredell would object to having Myrick (R) as a Congressperson.

District 5 moved east a bit to capture Winston, but I had to drag District 6 north a fair bit, because 5 would be too large otherwise. Despite grabbing Winston, the district is still R leaning and I think Foxx would stay.

District 6 would be a strong 59% McCain district - so any objections to my last map in making this competitive and difficult for Coble or another (R) to hold, would be moot. Yes, it's kind of oddly "hourglass" looking, but I do think my gerrmander of district 13 into east Greensoboro, is more compact than what the Dems did in the last Y2000 redistricting.

District 13 becomes an unshakably Dem district, so Brad Miller would stay. Interestingly, this new dist 13 might qualify under VRA at 56% white ... Brad might discover he faces more challengers from within the Dem party.

District 4 becomes a 47% McCain district with very little land originally represented by David Price. It may as well be viewed a competitive open seat, than as an incumbent election....

District 2 is kinder to Renee Ellmers than the last one I tried. The McCain ratio ticks up to 52% again, but now she keeps 3 counties from her old configuration.

District 8 is kinder to Kissel in terms of old land, but rises to 52% McCain, and that would make it rougher to hold on to.

District 7 drops a hair to 51% McCain, so odds are MacIntyre (D) keeps it.

District 3 stays conservative for Jones (R) and similarly shaped.

District 1 remains VRA, but without some of the "arms" sticking out the east that it had when the Dems drew it in Y2000.

NOW THE VISUALS! :) Yes these districts are a bit uglier than last night's effort, but they probably reflect political reality better, with regard to what a Republican Legislature could pass:

http://sdarwag.home.mindspring.com/redist/Nov24_w.jpg

http://sdarwag.home.mindspring.com/redist/Nov24_e.jpg

[MozoVote]

Been thinking some more... here are some conclusions I'm firming up on, after going through this exercise several times.

Forget about letting a computer draw it all. There are too many nuances that are poorly articulated to an input screen. A computer might be able to create some "startup maps" that a human cleans up - but the best "startup" is probably (gag) the existing Y2000 gerrymanders. That is because as ugly as it is, these are still constituents represented by current congresspeople.... the more of them you keep in a district, the less squawk there will be from both the population and the rep. The next best, is a blank slate... which allows you to "start clean and from scratch".

So, just do it by hand, or plan on spending a few hours cleaning up by hand. I'm sure the State Board of Elections already has GIS software they use (or or will procure for the purpose.) A good fact-finding mission is to understand what they work with, and easy it is to "doodle" on, what kind of turnaround is involved creating files and printing proposals.

A Legislative survey would be a good idea. Get a grasp of where the "mind of the Assembly" is centered. A survey form should lay out in about umpteen to twenty questions, some different priorities in redistricting that will come into play. Get as many Assemblypeople to answer it as possible.... I think allowing anonymous mail-in forms would help raise participation levels. This weekend, instead of drawing another map - I think I'll try and write up such a survey.

[independence]

Couldn't we take some republicans from district 5 and 10 and give these to district 11? We have a liberty candidate (no names but if you follow things you should know who) who is considering a run in district 11. District 5 and 10 are strong republican areas and could stand to lose some voters but still win.

[GunnyFreedom]

Couldn't we take some republicans from district 5 and 10 and give these to district 11? We have a liberty candidate (no names but if you follow things you should know who) who is considering a run in district 11. District 5 and 10 are strong republican areas and could stand to lose some voters but still win.

I'm not all that comfortable with building districts to elect people. I think if we build to geography and community, then all the districts will become more competitive, as they ought to.

[Imperial]

I'm not all that comfortable with building districts to elect people. I think if we build to geography and community, then all the districts will become more competitive, as they ought to.

Good to hear! Integrity is worth so much more than a short-term victory.

[Romantarchist]

At the same time Glen: you realize that B.J. Lawson plans to run again in 2012? Would you be against taking NC-4 and making it more competitive, turning it into more of a swing district?

[MozoVote]

One of the arguments with integrity, is to say that neither Howard Coble or David Price should have "safe" districts. Congress should not be a lifelong position, and we have seen what kind of cronyism can occur (Rangel) when districts are TOO safe.

It's fairly easy to make a compact district for Coble that is competitive. That would make knees shake among the legislators for that proposal (and the RNC will probably be applying back door pressure against it). But if done, it allows the long knives to be pulled for Price's district. "We took one for the team, now it's your turn, Dems!"

[bwlibertyman]

Mozo, I think you're really going about this wrong. I agree with Glenn. Check out www.rethinkingredistricting.com Redistricting should be a very simple process. Only population data should be used. It shouldn't matter where republicans, or democrats, or liberty minded people are. Redistricting should be used to keep communities together. So don't separate counties or townships. Check out the maps on that website. It's for Indiana but the same ideas can be used for North Carolina. If you want to redraw lines to help get liberty candidates elected you're not any better than the republicans and democrats.

[GunnyFreedom]

At the same time Glen: you realize that B.J. Lawson plans to run again in 2012? Would you be against taking NC-4 and making it more competitive, turning it into more of a swing district?

Yes. I want to make ALL the districts more competitive, including NC-4. Not specifically to favor BJ, but it will, in the end, have that ultimate effect.

[GunnyFreedom]

Mozo, I think you're really going about this wrong. I agree with Glenn. Check out www.rethinkingredistricting.com (http://www.rethinkingredistricting.com) Redistricting should be a very simple process. Only population data should be used. It shouldn't matter where republicans, or democrats, or liberty minded people are. Redistricting should be used to keep communities together. So don't separate counties or townships. Check out the maps on that website. It's for Indiana but the same ideas can be used for North Carolina. If you want to redraw lines to help get liberty candidates elected you're not any better than the republicans and democrats.

I agree, but NC is not exactly simple. Even using just those guidelines you still have scores of choices to make. If you just turn a blind eye to partisanship, you are liable end up with 7 D+10 districts and 6 R+10 districts, at which point why bother to hold elections at all?

[MozoVote]

bwlibertyman, you're talking about a state where the GOP has not held power for over a century. NO WAY will a majority of those legislators put the existing GOP delegation at serious risk.

You also have not seen the deference that the local party pays to Sue Myrick and Howard Coble. They are almost like royal institutions, that are simply not criticized. No resolution that could embarrass them, ever makes it out of committee.

Gunny is looking at how to thread the needle. What kind of plan could pass the new majority, that the local delegation would agree is a fairer than what the Dems did in Y2000.

We have not even talked about state level redistricting. :) That gets REALLY personal. It's the legislators' home turf where they have to canvass for votes again in two years! The urbanization and demographic changes in NC since Y2000 could cause some real gutaches.