Imperial
11-13-2010, 01:55 AM
We must first begin with an understanding. The idea of targeting every single Senate seat in 2012 is silly- such sets are multi-million dollar affairs, and require us to raise at least $1 million to be effective in the primary. So I propose that we target a certain number of seats, 5 maximum. In order to determine these seats, I provide some analysis of each seat up for election in 2012 and give it a designation:
INDEX:
DOA- Dead on arrival. We gain nothing targeting this seat.
LOW PRIORITY- There could be an opportunity here if the local environment turns positive or some outside groups jump in, but we cannot devote too many resources to such a seat.
HIGH PRIORITY- With the right candidate, this should be a seat that warrants significant attention from the grassroots.
UNSURE- This could be a problem of the right candidate. The environment is perfect, but who would fill the shoes?
Note: I am aware about 2/3rds of the Senate seats are left out here. I will be writing those up at a later point.
Feinstein - D - CA
We are not going to have a GOP wave in 2012. Chuck Devore will not be able to win a Senate seat in this environment in liberal California. Maybe Tom Campbell with his moderate streak? LOW PRIORITY
Carper - D - DE
It is Delaware. DOA
Nelson - D - FL
Florida is too expensive of a state to run a legit liberty candidate. We do not have a big-name enough candidate to contest the seat. Let Jeb Bush and the big name Republicans duke it out- DOA
Akaka - D - HI
The only Republican with enough name rec in Hawaii is Laura Lingle. We have bigger priorities. DOA
Cardin - D - MD
Brian Murphy had a cool gubernatorial run in 2010; he got creamed by an establishment candidate in the primary. Said establishment candidate was soundly defeated in a soundly Republican year. 2012 will not be as friendly ; DOA.
Klobuchar - D - MN
Alas, my temporary home of Minneosta has few in the ranks of liberty candidate. State rep Mark Buesgens, who managed Republican Tom Emmer's gubernatorial campaign, could possibly gather the resources to challenge. We could also see another run from Pat Anderson, fresh off of a defeat in a tight Auditor's race. LOW PRIORITY
McKaskill - D - MO
Finally, a glimpse of optimism! Remember Sarah Steelman, the CFL friendly fiscal conservative who ran for Governor in 2008? Word on the street is she could make a comeback in the Senate race. Her conservative credentials are probably unmatchable, which will be handy in a GOP primary. This is a swing state, so although it will be an expensive match it could be winnable. HIGH PRIORITY
Tester - D - MT
I am not sure who would be a good candidate for this seat. With his national fundraising network from 08, maybe former Constitution Party presidential candidate Chuck Baldwin if he jumped parties? I am sure there are others too, although expect a healthy dose of social conservatism. LOW PRIORITY
Nelson - D - NE
This just screams Bart Stupak. Republicans don't like Nelson for voting for healthcare reform. Democrats don't like Nelson for his instrumental role in giving us the corporate mandate that HCR is today. Sadly, most of the candidates seem to be generic Republicans, although I don't know enough about this state's electoral situation to say for sure. But it is freaking Ben Nelson! UNSURE
Menendez - D - NJ
I don't think we can afford another Murray Sabrin campaign. Steve Lonegan ran a spirited conservative gubernatorial campaign in 2009. He is likely a bit too conservative for New Jersey, but if the national environment were favorable it could become interesting. State Senator Brian Doherty may also want a promotion at some point, although I see him waiting a couple years before trying to move up. LOW PRIORITY
Bingaman - D - NM
Confession time: I was one of the first ones to call for former Governor Gary Johnson to run for Senate here. I don't know where the thread went, but it listed a bunch of reasons why this would be ideal for both the presidential race and for an easy pickup for the liberty movement. To sum it up fairly succinctly, Gary Johnson could build a national name in the debates, then drop out and announce he would actually run for Senate while also endorsing Dr. Paul. With two terms as the state's old Governor, he would easily dominate the field and would probably be the only Republican who could knock out Bingaman. The problem is that Gary Johnson appears dead-set on running for President. If Johnson does not run for Senate, don't expect Adam Kokesh to be able to organize a statewide effort against whatever bigger names the GOP puts forward. HIGH PRIORITY if Gary Johnson runs; DOA otherwise
INDEX:
DOA- Dead on arrival. We gain nothing targeting this seat.
LOW PRIORITY- There could be an opportunity here if the local environment turns positive or some outside groups jump in, but we cannot devote too many resources to such a seat.
HIGH PRIORITY- With the right candidate, this should be a seat that warrants significant attention from the grassroots.
UNSURE- This could be a problem of the right candidate. The environment is perfect, but who would fill the shoes?
Note: I am aware about 2/3rds of the Senate seats are left out here. I will be writing those up at a later point.
Feinstein - D - CA
We are not going to have a GOP wave in 2012. Chuck Devore will not be able to win a Senate seat in this environment in liberal California. Maybe Tom Campbell with his moderate streak? LOW PRIORITY
Carper - D - DE
It is Delaware. DOA
Nelson - D - FL
Florida is too expensive of a state to run a legit liberty candidate. We do not have a big-name enough candidate to contest the seat. Let Jeb Bush and the big name Republicans duke it out- DOA
Akaka - D - HI
The only Republican with enough name rec in Hawaii is Laura Lingle. We have bigger priorities. DOA
Cardin - D - MD
Brian Murphy had a cool gubernatorial run in 2010; he got creamed by an establishment candidate in the primary. Said establishment candidate was soundly defeated in a soundly Republican year. 2012 will not be as friendly ; DOA.
Klobuchar - D - MN
Alas, my temporary home of Minneosta has few in the ranks of liberty candidate. State rep Mark Buesgens, who managed Republican Tom Emmer's gubernatorial campaign, could possibly gather the resources to challenge. We could also see another run from Pat Anderson, fresh off of a defeat in a tight Auditor's race. LOW PRIORITY
McKaskill - D - MO
Finally, a glimpse of optimism! Remember Sarah Steelman, the CFL friendly fiscal conservative who ran for Governor in 2008? Word on the street is she could make a comeback in the Senate race. Her conservative credentials are probably unmatchable, which will be handy in a GOP primary. This is a swing state, so although it will be an expensive match it could be winnable. HIGH PRIORITY
Tester - D - MT
I am not sure who would be a good candidate for this seat. With his national fundraising network from 08, maybe former Constitution Party presidential candidate Chuck Baldwin if he jumped parties? I am sure there are others too, although expect a healthy dose of social conservatism. LOW PRIORITY
Nelson - D - NE
This just screams Bart Stupak. Republicans don't like Nelson for voting for healthcare reform. Democrats don't like Nelson for his instrumental role in giving us the corporate mandate that HCR is today. Sadly, most of the candidates seem to be generic Republicans, although I don't know enough about this state's electoral situation to say for sure. But it is freaking Ben Nelson! UNSURE
Menendez - D - NJ
I don't think we can afford another Murray Sabrin campaign. Steve Lonegan ran a spirited conservative gubernatorial campaign in 2009. He is likely a bit too conservative for New Jersey, but if the national environment were favorable it could become interesting. State Senator Brian Doherty may also want a promotion at some point, although I see him waiting a couple years before trying to move up. LOW PRIORITY
Bingaman - D - NM
Confession time: I was one of the first ones to call for former Governor Gary Johnson to run for Senate here. I don't know where the thread went, but it listed a bunch of reasons why this would be ideal for both the presidential race and for an easy pickup for the liberty movement. To sum it up fairly succinctly, Gary Johnson could build a national name in the debates, then drop out and announce he would actually run for Senate while also endorsing Dr. Paul. With two terms as the state's old Governor, he would easily dominate the field and would probably be the only Republican who could knock out Bingaman. The problem is that Gary Johnson appears dead-set on running for President. If Johnson does not run for Senate, don't expect Adam Kokesh to be able to organize a statewide effort against whatever bigger names the GOP puts forward. HIGH PRIORITY if Gary Johnson runs; DOA otherwise