Shocking! Study: Arizona Immigration law may be working

[bobbyw24]

MEXICO CITY (AP) — A new study suggests there may be 100,000 fewer Hispanics in Arizona than there were before the debate over the state’s tough new immigration law earlier this year.

BBVA Bancomer Research, which did the study, worked with figures from the U.S. Current Population Survey. The study says the decline could be due to the law known as SB1070, which partly entered into effect in July, or to Arizona’s difficult economic situation.

The study released Wednesday also cites Mexican government figures as saying that 23,380 Mexicans returned from Arizona to Mexico between June and September.

U.S. census figures from 2008 say about 30 percent of people living in Arizona are Hispanic, or about 1.9 million.

http://dailycaller.com/2010/11/11/study-100000-hispanics-left-arizona-after-sb1070/

[Zippyjuan]

Nation- wide the number of illegal immigrants has been going down for a couple of years now- at an average rate of one million a year according to estimates. If ten percent of those are in Arizona, that would come to 100,000. This CATO article covers the first year of the decline- which has continued. http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/whats-behind-the-decline-in-illegal-immigration-its-the-economy-stupid/


What’s Behind the Decline in Illegal Immigration? It’s the Economy, Stupid

Posted by Daniel Griswold

A Pew Hispanic Center report released today confirms what has been widely known, that the number of illegal immigrants in the United States has dropped sharply since 2007. The real argument is over what’s behind the decline.

According to Pew’s Jeffrey Passel and D’Vera Cohn, the annual inflow of unauthorized immigrants dropped by two-thirds during 2007-09 compared to 2000-05. That plunge has contributed to an overall decline in the total number of illegal immigrants in the United States from a peak of 12 million in March 2007 to 11.1 million in March 2009. Pew calls this “the first significant reversal in the growth of this population over the past two decades.”

Advocates of more restrictive immigration policies have been quick to credit increased enforcement for the decline, but that thesis doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. While enforcement efforts have indeed been ramped up in the past couple of years, the change has not been dramatic. Resources devoted to border and interior enforcement have been increasing pretty steadily since the early 1990s.

It seems implausible that more recent, incremental increases would have such a visible effect when years of increased enforcement efforts before now so visibly failed. In fact, the same restrictionists who constantly complain that nothing has been done to enforce our immigration laws are among those now praising that supposedly non-existent enforcement for the drop in illegal immigrants. They can’t have it both ways.

The more obvious explanation is the steep economic recession that began to bite in 2008. The downturn has been especially brutal in the housing and construction industries where many illegal immigrants found employment during the previous boom. As evidence, the decline in the number of illegal immigrants has been steepest in those states, such as Nevada, California, and Florida, where the housing downturn has been the most severe.

When the economy revives, I predict the inflow and population of illegal immigrants will begin expanding again, too. This problem will not be solved until Congress and the president work together to enact comprehensive immigration reform that widens opportunities for legal immigration.

[libertythor]

The law would be fine if "lawful contact" were made a bit more specific. A lawful contact could be as much as a "Good evening." as you are walking out of a bar. Cops in many cities have already instituted "stop and frisks", so who is to say that this won't be eventually used as an excuse to give everybody the third degree?

I say keep the law, but modify it slightly. It will still be usable when they catch a youth spraypainting a wall or somebody is driving drunk.

[FrankRep]

The law would be fine if "lawful contact" were made a bit more specific.

Old News.


Arizona lawmakers tweak immigration bill; ‘Lawful contact’ out, ‘stop, detain or arrest’ in (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/04/arizona-lawmakers-tweak-immigration-bill-lawful-contact-stop-detain-arrest/)

Arizona governor signs bill revising new immigration law (http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/azelections/articles/2010/04/30/20100430arizona-immigration-law-governor-signs-revised-bill.html)


Raw Story
April 30th, 2010

[libertythor]

As long as it can't be used for a NYC-style random "stop and frisk" it will be fine.


Old News.


Arizona lawmakers tweak immigration bill; ‘Lawful contact’ out, ‘stop, detain or arrest’ in (http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/04/arizona-lawmakers-tweak-immigration-bill-lawful-contact-stop-detain-arrest/)

Raw Story
April 30th, 2010

[Tyr]

Sadly it isn't the new law which has all but been neutered, it's the work outlook.


When the economy revives, I predict the inflow and population of illegal immigrants will begin expanding again, too. This problem will not be solved until Congress and the president work together to enact comprehensive immigration reform that widens opportunities for legal immigration.


Wrong. This problem won't be solved until the Federal Government and ICE stop treating the law as a joke. As for the "comprehensive immigration amnesty" err "reform", let's hope not. It WON'T solve the problem. It didn't in the 1980's, it won't today.

[Kregisen]

The law made tons of illegals move away just out of terror....in my opinion it was never designed to actually directly do anything, it was all about deterrents. And it has deterred many....I've been neutral on the law but I am happy about the deterrents it's created.


Funny how certain issues in the nation make people from both sides so incredibly mad, then after it happens...it happens. SB1070 and the mosque both come to mind. (whatever happened to the mosque anyway? Did it move in?)

[zade]

So? A police state might "work," as far as lowering crime or some such metric. It doesn't mean it's virtuous

[raistlinkishtar]

This is great news. Can we have a whole lot more please?

Imagine if the law actually was implemented how much more effective it would be on the problem?

[mrsat_98]

Under color of law terrorism.

[MelissaWV]

As long as it can't be used for a NYC-style random "stop and frisk" it will be fine.

The law still contains language that constitutes a major loophole, but the ship has sailed, so until it's legally challenged no one will bother with it again. Basically, you can be stopped and detained if you are suspected of a removable offense. Since being here illegally is a removable offense, you can be lawfully stopped and detained if you are acting or looking like an illegal. You can see where that is likely to lead down the line, despite assurances to the contrary.

* * *

100,000 Hispanics moved away... interesting language by the article. Did they bother to split that up, or did they figure most people are dumb and don't realize Hispanic and Mexican are not actually the same thing?

I am wondering how many people of other "categories" left during the same period, or are just left out of work and collecting benefits. The economy sucks. It's likely to have amplified any real impact this law has had.

[Tyr]

The law still contains language that constitutes a major loophole, but the ship has sailed, so until it's legally challenged no one will bother with it again. Basically, you can be stopped and detained if you are suspected of a removable offense. Since being here illegally is a removable offense, you can be lawfully stopped and detained if you are acting or looking like an illegal. You can see where that is likely to lead down the line, despite assurances to the contrary.

* * *

100,000 Hispanics moved away... interesting language by the article. Did they bother to split that up, or did they figure most people are dumb and don't realize Hispanic and Mexican are not actually the same thing?

I am wondering how many people of other "categories" left during the same period, or are just left out of work and collecting benefits. The economy sucks. It's likely to have amplified any real impact this law has had.


I'm not sure where you live but here in Arizona it is extremely easy to spot illegals.

[Zippyjuan]

If they are not white?

[Kregisen]

If they are not white?

I'd wager 95% of the day laborers here are illegals, and the majority of hispanics who only speak spanish are also illegals. Some of my co-workers at my old job were illegals too.

It's Arizona.

[TheHumblePhysicist]

It is really easy to spot illegals here in California. Just look for the overweight teenage mothers strolling down the street with their 5 children in tow speaking an endless stream of Spanish. Look in the detention halls at the mental midgets flashing knives at each other and acting tough. Look at the roving packs of Mexican gangs on the streets, doing drugs, stabbing each other and intimidating any white or black people that come around.

[Arion45]

I hope this racism is not the best the liberty community has to offer. As for laws limiting the freedom of human movement, it is just plain evil. If you support governmental force to get what you want then you are part of the problem. Get with liberty or stop pretending and just admit you are advocating for a little less evil.

[specsaregood]

I hope this racism is not the best the liberty community has to offer. As for laws limiting the freedom of human movement, it is just plain evil. If you support governmental force to get what you want then you are part of the problem. Get with liberty or stop pretending and just admit you are advocating for a little less evil.

I wasn't aware that "illegal immigrant" was a race.

[MelissaWV]

I wasn't aware that "illegal immigrant" was a race.

Reread the last several posts. I'm sick of hearing "if they speak Spanish" or "if they are construction workers" or other such "flags" that let you know someone is illegal. There are illegals who don't fit those stereotypes, and there are plenty of legal Americans that do.

But perhaps some of these posters would adore working for the Arizona PD, and help detain people on the basis of these ridiculous cliches. :(

[South Park Fan]

MEXICO CITY (AP) — A new study suggests there may be 100,000 fewer Hispanics in Arizona than there were before the debate over the state’s tough new immigration law earlier this year.

BBVA Bancomer Research, which did the study, worked with figures from the U.S. Current Population Survey. The study says the decline could be due to the law known as SB1070, which partly entered into effect in July, or to Arizona’s difficult economic situation.

The study released Wednesday also cites Mexican government figures as saying that 23,380 Mexicans returned from Arizona to Mexico between June and September.

U.S. census figures from 2008 say about 30 percent of people living in Arizona are Hispanic, or about 1.9 million.

http://dailycaller.com/2010/11/11/study-100000-hispanics-left-arizona-after-sb1070/

Emphasis on bold. The border protectionists on here were saying that this isn't a racial issue, and that this was intended solely as an anti-illegal immigration measure. If so, then this article doesn't tell us anything, unless the law's intention truly was ethnic cleansing.

[Arion45]

I wasn't aware that "illegal immigrant" was a race.

I never said it was.

[MelissaWV]

Emphasis on bold. The border protectionists on here were saying that this isn't a racial issue, and that this was intended solely as an anti-illegal immigration measure. If so, then this article doesn't tell us anything, unless the law's intention truly was ethnic cleansing.

*shrugs* People who're overjoyed that "it's working" will ignore the part where it says that it could be due to the economy, too. There's always that contingent of folks on here. I should be used to it, but I guess it still sucks. People see my name and act amazed I have no accent. They ask if I ever ate anything but tacos as a child. They ask for my "papers" jokingly, or they give me silly "compliments" telling me that I do a good job "passing" for "American."

Of course, I've had family that were born citizens since the Spanish-American War, but folks shouldn't let that stop them. The assumption is always that, somewhere close in my past, there's a branch of the tree heavy with migrant farm workers, teen moms, and gang members. It's irksome. It always will be.

Edit: Oh yes. I forgot about how ridiculous it is to go to Home Depot, or to stand near a bus stop. I forgot that, if I'm in a group of "brown" friends early in the morning, I am actually being highly suspicious, especially if I'm cold (so wearing jeans and a hooded sweatshirt!). If I speak my native language, I am being highly suspicious. If I'm looking for an unfamiliar address, I am also being suspicious. I'm sure I'll be informed that only certain kinds of slow cars, though, are driven by illegals. If I'm hiking in the desert with those same "brown" friends, I'm an illegal... if I'm with a group of paler folks, though, I'm just an eco-tourist :rolleyes: I could go on, but some people will just never see how silly they really are.

[Tyr]

I'd wager 95% of the day laborers here are illegals, and the majority of hispanics who only speak spanish are also illegals. Some of my co-workers at my old job were illegals too.

It's Arizona.


True enough on the day laborers.

Look, it isn't here to spot them in Arizona people. If there's a large group of South Americans loitering in Home Depots parking lot 99.9% of them are illegal. Unless of course you buy the claims law abiding citizens have to stand in a parking lot waiting for a $30 landscaping job for the day. Especially when there is a good economy. It's not rocket science, they're standing there because they don't have green cards and are willing to work whatever for a little cash.

Likewise if you see a massive grouping standing around gas stations or street corners in run down neighborhoods at 4 or 5AM there's a reason for that. They're waiting for some day work.

If someone is in a run down vehicle doing 20MPH under the speed limit and there's no traffic? Come on now, some common sense. People with drivers licenses and nothing to hide have no issue doing the speed limit.

If a pack of people are walking north of the border with backpacks on in the middle of the desert they're likely illegal.

Construction sites are also rife with them. We can pretend they're not, but they are. Again, it's not hard to spot them. They usually vanish anytime someone wearing business attire or a uniform that could be confused with "La Migra" is within eyesight.

Like I said ladies and gentlemen, it isn't hard to spot them.

[Tyr]

Edit: Oh yes. I forgot about how ridiculous it is to go to Home Depot, or to stand near a bus stop.

Who said anything about a bus stop? Anyways i'm sure in your mind it's perfectly normal for non English speaking immigrants in steel toed workboots with hard hats in hand to be standing in the middle of parking lots, rushing towards whatever construction truck pulls in. :rolleyes:


I forgot that, if I'm in a group of "brown" friends early in the morning, I am actually being highly suspicious,

See above but yeah, i'm sure it too is absolutely normal for U.S. Citizens to be standing around parking lots, gas stations and up and down the street by the HUNDREDS at 4AM. :rolleyes:


I'm sure I'll be informed that only certain kinds of slow cars, though, are driven by illegals.

I guess I should've been PC and included 90 year olds from Idaho in $60,000 cars.....



If I'm hiking in the desert with those same "brown" friends, I'm an illegal... if I'm with a group of paler folks, though, I'm just an eco-tourist :rolleyes:


No actually that would be just as suspicious considering A: There isn't anything out there worth going to see, just alot of sand and some weeds, and B: It's hot. And dry. You can pretty much guarantee if someone is spotted in the middle of nowhere they will be stopped and questioned.

Though again, in bizarro world i'm sure it's perfectly normal for S. Americans to stuff backpacks start walking through desolate areas above the U.S.-Mexico Border. It's certainly not because they're illegals crossing. I'm sure INS has declared certain areas as border crossings just to be big meanies. :rolleyes:

Now, thank you for the negative rep. Unfortunate for me I don't speak Spanish(nor do I have a desire to). I don't really know what you said, nor do I really care. However if I can PC-up the above for you some more let me know. I'll get right on that.

[MelissaWV]

Thank God there's nothing to see out in the desert...


Arizona Desert Tours - Scottsdale

Click a flag for English or German to enter.
click here for a summary of our services in Japanese


Our vast desert trail areas and river canyons are spectacular, pristine and contain a wide variety of " four wheel drive" terrain like no other seen in the Phoenix / Scottsdale area.


My girlfriend and I are planning a backpacking trip to Arizona from April 17-24.


Having grown up in the Arizona desert, I can assure you that there is a plethora of choices. April is a great time for the desert, since you will be getting the flower blooming. What sort of terrain do you want? I could suggest the Superstitions (only a few miles from Phoenix Sky Harbor). Beautiful place with lots of history, and very few people these days are shot by insane prospectors (the Lost Dutchman Mine generates lots of tall tales even today). The Chiricahuas are fantastic (especially the rock formations that look like you are on another planet), in the southeastern part of the state. Grand Canyon is a challenge, of course, and probably too popular, though there are some trails that don't see visitors (especially from the North Rim). Organ Pipe is another great place, as are the White Mountains (you will need permission to backpack in the White Mountain Apache Reservation, but there are other parts of the White Mountains that you only need the usual permits. There are still some good hikes in Oak Creek - it isn't completely developed with the New Age fancy-dancy mystical super-rich crowd. The Navajo reservation does give permits and will provide guides to some fantastic places. You could go into Havasu, though that is pretty popular. The Havasupai are being more restrictive about their permits, I understand.

http://www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/1720573/2/istockphoto_1720573-hiking-through-the-arizona-desert.jpg

Arrest those people!!!! Oh, wait, they're not... whatever-the-hell-looking enough. :rolleyes:

* * *

Cheer all you want for the harrassing of people for doing legal things. It's not illegal to speak Spanish, and if it offends you, I wonder why. It shouldn't be illegal to stand around as long as the property owners don't mind. It absolutely isn't illegal to hike through the desert as long as the property owners don't mind. It certainly isn't illegal to become an overweight teen mom, as many people of various colors seem quite willing and able to become just that every year.

It's illegal to be here illegally, point blank. It's easy to tell who's here illegally (you're right about that!) by checking such things when people apply for benefits, make a move to use a public service, apply for a job, or any number of other things which requires the exchange of legal documents. Pointing your finger around and pretending you have the equivalent of gaydar for illegals is just ridiculous as fuckall, and says more about you than anything else.

[Lord Xar]

I never said it was.

So why do you reference "racist" in your post. Stop demagoguing.
We subsidize this breaking of laws, so we get more of it. We school illegals, we offer them state services, we allow them medical services etc.. all on the taxpayer dime.

Open borders is the surest way to globalization and collapse of this nation. Balkanization is on an ever increasing rise, and I believe (I will have to re-look it up) most "mexican-americans" see themselves more loyal to mexico than this host country (~70%). For you, that might be ok, not for me.

Most 'new immigrants' and most certainly, illegals, vote liberal. You want the surest path to big government and a dissolution of the United States sovereignty, then have at your "open border mentality".

"A nation without secure borders, is no nation at all." - Ron Paul

[MelissaWV]

So why do you reference "racist" in your post. Stop demagoguing.
We subsidize this breaking of laws, so we get more of it. We school illegals, we offer them state services, we allow them medical services etc.. all on the taxpayer dime.

Open borders is the surest way to globalization and collapse of this nation. Balkanization is on an ever increasing rise, and I believe (I will have to re-look it up) most "mexican-americans" see themselves more loyal to mexico than this host country (~70%). For you, that might be ok, not for me.

Most 'new immigrants' and most certainly, illegals, vote liberal. You want the surest path to big government and a dissolution of the United States sovereignty, then have at your "open border mentality".

"A nation without secure borders, is no nation at all." - Ron Paul

I'm pretty sure the survey you are citing there is the one that was conducted among Mexicans. That is a pretty flawed way of taking a poll. It was the Mexicans (in Mexico) saying that Mexican-Americans should be more loyal to Mexico. I'm not disputing your opinions, but just pointing out that poll is utter bunk :p


Nearly 70 percent of Mexicans surveyed said that Mexican-Americans – including those born in the United States – owe their primary loyalty to Mexico, not the U.S., according to a Zogby poll commissioned by the Center for Immigration Studies.

The in-person poll, taken during August and September, sampled 1,004 Mexicans across the country on subjects related to illegal immigration and amnesty in the United States.

When asked “Should the primary loyalty of Mexican-Americans be to Mexico or to the U.S.?” 68.8 percent of respondents in Mexico said that it should be to Mexico, while only 19.7 percent said it should be to the United States. Another 11.5 percent of respondents said they were not sure.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/55496

[libertybrewcity]

When are more states going to pass similar laws?

Also, they took er jobs!
YouTube - south park-they took our jobs!!! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLni3wbndls)

[BlackTerrel]

MEXICO CITY (AP) — A new study suggests there may be 100,000 fewer Hispanics in Arizona than there were before the debate over the state’s tough new immigration law earlier this year.

So the law was intended to have less Hispanics - that's the goal and it's working basically?

[cindy25]

probably the economy more than the law

end support for Mexico's drug war, and many Mexicans would go home

[Lord Xar]

So the law was intended to have less Hispanics - that's the goal and it's working basically?

Why are you disingenuous?

The law was, as I am sure you are well aware, to cut down on illegal immigration. Should immigration laws only be enforced & enacted when each country in the world is equally represented here in the U.S? You have this uncanny ability to turn almost every thread into a racial one. Dude, seriously. You are so wrapped up in race that it is becoming distracting.

[BlackTerrel]

Why are you disingenuous?

The law was, as I am sure you are well aware, to cut down on illegal immigration. You have this uncanny ability to turn almost every thread into a racial one. Dude, seriously. You are so wrapped up in race that it is becoming distracting.

"It has nothing to do with race" yet the first sentence in an article about how it is working is:

MEXICO CITY (AP) — A new study suggests there may be 100,000 fewer Hispanics in Arizona than there were before the debate over the state’s tough new immigration law earlier this year.

So is there a correlation between this law and race? I'd say yes - at least in the minds of the people behind this article.

I'm not the one that made it about race - the first post did.

[Arion45]

So why do you reference "racist" in your post. Stop demagoguing.
We subsidize this breaking of laws, so we get more of it. We school illegals, we offer them state services, we allow them medical services etc.. all on the taxpayer dime.

Open borders is the surest way to globalization and collapse of this nation. Balkanization is on an ever increasing rise, and I believe (I will have to re-look it up) most "mexican-americans" see themselves more loyal to mexico than this host country (~70%). For you, that might be ok, not for me.

Most 'new immigrants' and most certainly, illegals, vote liberal. You want the surest path to big government and a dissolution of the United States sovereignty, then have at your "open border mentality".

"A nation without secure borders, is no nation at all." - Ron Paul

I was writing about the racist comments that I had read.

When you say "WE" you include me and I would disagree with this. I do not school anyone, I do not offer state services to anyone, and I do not allow anyone to have free medical services. The government does all these things.

Open borders means free movement of human beings. If the government collapses because of this, well the faster the better. It may be ok for you to use the force of government to limit the freedom of movement for peaceful people but it isn't for me.

If you want the continued growth of government, keep advocating for the government to make more laws and to grow it's power to keep these "dangerous" people out of your imaginary borders.

"Limiting the freedom of movement of peaceful people is evil." -Arion45