Gold and silver taking a beating tonight.. [Archive] - Ron Paul Forums / Liberty Forest

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 12:22 AM

Gold and silver are getting pounded.............

http://www.kitco.com/market/

There is an active corrective bear pattern (December Gold) that began at 1424.30, fell to support at 1382.20, hit resistance at 1417.60, and is now falling back towards its ultimate target of 1375.50.

Brian

Bruno

11-12-2010, 12:43 AM

When do you expect 1450, Brian?

teacherone

11-12-2010, 01:53 AM

There is an active corrective bear pattern (December Gold) that began at 1424.30, fell to support at 1382.20, hit resistance at 1417.60, and is now falling back towards its ultimate target of 1375.50.

Brian

can you post some charts that predict this so i can send it out?

squarepusher

11-12-2010, 02:09 AM

manipulation

Lord Xar

11-12-2010, 02:46 AM

Sure, most know it is manipulation... but that doesn't seem to make any difference. J.P. Morgan seems to be impervious to any justice. I am starting to think they will keep the lid on this pressure cooker for a long long time.

devil21

11-12-2010, 03:11 AM

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 08:52 AM

can you post some charts that predict this so i can send it out?
It already happened overnight ... except I missed by nearly $2. December Gold fell to $1377.30 (instead of $1375.50) ... which is just inside the 1.5% hit zone. Though, this pattern is still active and can reach its target.

A new target surfaced overnight (which overlaps the target above). The target is $1363.60, calculated from 1410.00/1382.60/1391.00. The midpoint (which provides support in this bear pattern) happens to be 1377.30 ... the exact low overnight. This action usually portends the target being hit.

I do not have annotated charts available. I am working off of a live data feed with basic charting (only price action is required). But you can take a look at an online chart of December Gold (60m or below) and use the plots yourself.

I also played a bounce of the E-Mini S&P overnight. I was expecting a bottom side target of 1194.00 and placed a buy there. It fell as low as 1193.00, bounced, and is now 1207.00. That is good for $700/contract.

Brian

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 09:03 AM

When do you expect 1450, Brian?
I do not have any patterns that suggest that as a likely possibility at this time. I do have a longer term target at 1465.80 (longer term is the next few weeks) ... but there is a decent chance this target is not reached. I think we see at least 1363.60 to the downside first, before we see higher prices.

Brian

Bruno

11-12-2010, 09:07 AM

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 09:15 AM

I do not have any patterns that suggest that as a likely possibility at this time. I do have a longer term target at 1465.80 (longer term is the next few weeks) ... but there is a decent chance this target is not reached. I think we see at least 1363.60 to the downside first, before we see higher prices.
Brian

Scratch that ... the 1391.00 part of the 1410.00/1382.60/1391.00/1363.60 midpoint=1377.30 was just taken out. We had a print at 1395.00 before reversing. Hence, the 1363.60 target is invalidated. The modified pattern of 1410.00/1382.60/1395.00 with a target of 1367.60 is still active ... but weaker in my opinion. I like the 1410.00/1377.30/1395.00/1362.30 pattern better. Watch for action at the midpoint ... 1378.65.

The original target of 1424.30/1382.20/1417.60/1375.50 is still possible ... though again we did hit 1377.30 last night.

Brian

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 09:22 AM

Scratch that ... the 1391.00 part of the 1410.00/1382.60/1391.00/1363.60 midpoint=1377.30 was just taken out. We had a print at 1395.00 before reversing. Hence, the 1363.60 target is invalidated. The modified pattern of 1410.00/1382.60/1395.00 with a target of 1367.60 is still active ... but weaker in my opinion.

The original target of 1424.30/1382.20/1417.60/1375.50 is still possible ... though again we did hit 1377.30 last night.

Brian
The good news is that I have consistently seen reversals to the upside either at midpoint support levels or actual targets. This means that the bears have not been able to wrest control. I have simply been bottom fishing these support levels and playing the bounce. Many usually get filled overnight in less liquid markets when the bears have more influence.

Brian

Jordan

11-12-2010, 09:48 AM

Silver needs to hold 26.45-50, next touch will be the sixth. Each of the last three bounces have been weaker each time.

It'll battle it again once more today. Dum, dum, dum.

Jordan

11-12-2010, 10:19 AM

Through $26.50. Next is $26.00, $25.80, then there isn't anything to hold onto until $24.90-$25.10.

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 10:32 AM

Through $26.50. Next is $26.00, $25.80, then there isn't anything to hold onto until $24.90-$25.10.
The target for Silver in my system is $25.25 ($29.34/26.415/28.175/25.25). $26.71 midpoint finally taken out.

Brian

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 10:35 AM

Scratch that ... the 1391.00 part of the 1410.00/1382.60/1391.00/1363.60 midpoint=1377.30 was just taken out. We had a print at 1395.00 before reversing. Hence, the 1363.60 target is invalidated. The modified pattern of 1410.00/1382.60/1395.00 with a target of 1367.60 is still active ... but weaker in my opinion. I like the 1410.00/1377.30/1395.00/1362.30 pattern better. Watch for action at the midpoint ... 1378.65.

The original target of 1424.30/1382.20/1417.60/1375.50 is still possible ... though again we did hit 1377.30 last night.
Brian
The bounce from 1377.30 ran all the way to 1395.00 before plummeting again and finally taking out the 1375.50 target. The low print was 1373.40 ... with a subsequent modest bounce to 1379.00. Some very good trades here. I still have my eyes on 1362.30.

Brian

Bruno

11-12-2010, 10:43 AM

this is not good news for silver stocks

eOs

11-12-2010, 10:53 AM

PeacePlan

11-12-2010, 10:55 AM

It looks like a small correction, not a "beating". And considering the run up both PMs have had recently it isn't much of a drop. Once silver is back under $20/oz (won't happen) Ill consider it a beating.

Over 5% in less than 24 hrs I consider a beating

Silver and gold taken to the woodshed is that better

Kelly.

11-12-2010, 11:00 AM

Through $26.50. Next is $26.00, $25.80, then there isn't anything to hold onto until $24.90-$25.10.

how the hell do you guys figure this sorta thing out?
im guessing it isnt something cant be explained in 5-10 mins and without the background knowledge in the markets?

in any event, thank you and gonegolfin for your input.

if silver hit $25 today, im gonna buy out my local coin dealer :)

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 11:11 AM

I also played a bounce of the E-Mini S&P overnight. I was expecting a bottom side target of 1194.00 and placed a buy there. It fell as low as 1193.00, bounced, and is now 1207.00. That is good for $700/contract.
Brian
The E-mini S&P play has been beautiful. After the bounce at 1193.00, another short term bull pattern emerged.

1193.00/1207.50/1201.50/1216.00 midpoint=1208.75. This is where I sold as I had little faith in the rally. Gold, Silver, and the S&P have mostly been trading together.

The midpoint provides resistance and tells us a lot about whether the ultimate target (in this case 1216.00) will be reached. The midpoint was reached exactly and turned south. This is why you take some profits here and set a stop loss for the remaining (if you do not completely bail at the midpoint).

Now, the following is in play ...

1208.25/1197.00/1201.75/1190.50 midpoint = 1196.13. We have bounced a couple of times off of the midpoint, but are hanging around.

Brian

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 11:46 AM

The bounce from 1377.30 ran all the way to 1395.00 before plummeting again and finally taking out the 1375.50 target. The low print was 1373.40 ... with a subsequent modest bounce to 1379.00. Some very good trades here. I still have my eyes on 1362.30.
Brian
And once again ... the 1362.30 target was reached (actually breached to 1359.30) before a modest rebound to 1366.40. Rebound is not what I would call enthusiastic thus far.

1410.00/1377.30/1395.00/1362.30.

Brian

Bruno

11-12-2010, 11:48 AM

I have lost too much on silver stocks now, I'm torn. But the knife keeps falling.

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 11:50 AM

I have lost too much on silver stocks now, I'm torn. But the knife keeps falling.
The next time you feel you are near a peak, either sell some and take profits or write some covered calls.

Brian

Bruno

11-12-2010, 11:53 AM

The next time you feel you are near a peak, either sell some and take profits or write some covered calls.

Brian

Thanks, Brian!

angelatc

11-12-2010, 12:05 PM

I have lost too much on silver stocks now, I'm torn. But the knife keeps falling.

Buy on the dips.

Lord Xar

11-12-2010, 12:12 PM

Bruno

11-12-2010, 12:24 PM

Buy on the dips.

I thought I was! :o :(

ClayTrainor

11-12-2010, 12:54 PM

holy crap! Gold has dropped like $60 since I last checked. :(

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 01:08 PM

Brian - your knowledge seems to be very well respected but I find myself looking at your posts scratching my head :-) For those less market inclined, can you give some semblence, in layman terms, what is the intent in terms of buy/sell/hold etc.. For example, silver "is taking a beating", can we expect this downward trend for a while, or be prepared to buy etc.. I am speaking of buying "physical holdings".
If you are talking about buying physical metals, these are core holdings. This thread concentrates on trading Gold and the S&P. I am usually in an out of at least one trade per day, sometimes several, and rarely hold beyond a few days (three is my record). Of course, this depends on the volatility of the market (more volatility = more frequent trades).

My short to intermediate term view is slightly biased towards needing a correction in Gold/Silver (more than what we have experienced). I have not constructed targets from the charts yet. But I am confident there will be deals below $1300 for Gold and $25 for Silver. I am also confident that we will see higher highs after the correction. We are in a bull market and all bull markets need a breather. Nothing to panic about. Investors that panic are separated from their money.

Brian

teacherone

11-12-2010, 01:35 PM

thanks jordan and brian! this is an informative thread!

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 01:40 PM

how the hell do you guys figure this sorta thing out?
im guessing it isnt something cant be explained in 5-10 mins and without the background knowledge in the markets?

You are correct. :-)

Brian

Bruno

11-12-2010, 01:41 PM

lol

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 01:45 PM

The E-mini S&P play has been beautiful. After the bounce at 1193.00, another short term bull pattern emerged.

1193.00/1207.50/1201.50/1216.00 midpoint=1208.75. This is where I sold as I had little faith in the rally. Gold, Silver, and the S&P have mostly been trading together.

The midpoint provides resistance and tells us a lot about whether the ultimate target (in this case 1216.00) will be reached. The midpoint was reached exactly and turned south. This is why you take some profits here and set a stop loss for the remaining (if you do not completely bail at the midpoint).

Now, the following is in play ...

1208.25/1197.00/1201.75/1190.50 midpoint = 1196.13. We have bounced a couple of times off of the midpoint, but are hanging around.

I did not short this (I should have shorted immediately after dumping my load at 1208.75) but am attempting to bottom fish at 1190.50. We came very close (1191.50), but it looks like we will not get there today.

Brian

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 02:10 PM

I did not short this (I should have shorted immediately after dumping my load at 1208.75) but am attempting to bottom fish at 1190.50. We came very close (1191.50), but it looks like we will not get there today.

Brian
And there it goes ... from 1191.50 (just above our target bid) to 1199.00. Sometimes there is a little bit of front-running the target ... especially if the pattern is of the more obvious type.

Brian

gonegolfin

11-12-2010, 02:25 PM

And once again ... the 1362.30 target was reached (actually breached to 1359.30) before a modest rebound to 1366.40. Rebound is not what I would call enthusiastic thus far.

1410.00/1377.30/1395.00/1362.30.

Brian
Rebound is a little better now ... 1370.80, but not the hard reversal you would like to see. This is good for $850 per contract ($100 * $8.50).

Brian

devil21

11-12-2010, 02:33 PM

Over 5% in less than 24 hrs I consider a beating

Silver and gold taken to the woodshed is that better

Yeah, it's a little more of a beating now but still nothing terrible. I guess JPM doesn't want to have to cover those short positions lol. It'll be interesting to see the details of silver trades over the last few weeks.

rp4prez

11-12-2010, 08:04 PM

So what's causing the drop in just about everything? I keep reading that it's QEII.

Lafayette

11-12-2010, 08:45 PM

So what's causing the drop in just about everything? I keep reading that it's QEII.

Its a combination of increases in commodity margins and the giant pile of shit that is the PIIGS (Portugal-Ireland- Italy-Greece-Spain).

There are a lot of smaller reasons, but those are the major ones.

QEII will and has increased the prices of just about everything, what is going on currently is only temporary. Today was the first day of QEII $7 billion or so of Bonds purchased.

They haven't even begun to print !

Lord Xar

11-12-2010, 08:54 PM

Its a combination of increases in commodity margins and the giant pile of shit that is the PIIGS (Portugal-Ireland- Italy-Greece-Spain).

There are a lot of smaller reasons, but those are the major ones.

QEII will and has increased the prices of just about everything, what is going on currently is only temporary. Today was the first day of QEII $7 billion or so of Bonds purchased.

They haven't even begun to print !

So what are you thinking is gonna happen? Additional sliding down, or a steep increase soon?

Lafayette

11-12-2010, 09:04 PM

So what are you thinking is gonna happen? Additional sliding down, or a steep increase soon?

I think will see more sliding, at least until they figure out another round of bailouts for the PIIGS.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/reuters-eurozone-sources-say-ireland-talks-receive-emergency-funding-eu

Im sure will more margin increases as well, so far its only been silver, sugar, coffee and cotton that has seen the brunt.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ice-boosts-sugar-margins-65

But who knows, nothing makes sense anymore. Hell it hasn't since i joined this forum :D

Mordan

11-13-2010, 10:00 AM

I thought I was! :o :(

idiots. it is like a casino. don't play the forex or anything. You are playing a game you can't win.

I lost enough money already to know it is a full time job and it is not worth it for your health.

Dr.3D

11-13-2010, 10:05 AM

idiots. it is like a casino. don't play the forex or anything. You are playing a game you can't win.

I lost enough money already to know it is a full time job and it is not worth it for your health.

Exactly! If it's not physical metal, then it's just paper that can be manipulated. Hold the real thing and they can't fool with it.