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View Full Version : Weird poll math... can someone explain this to me?



zebov
10-20-2007, 12:44 AM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/insider_advantage/nh_gop_oct.html

Look in section 2, "age." Apparently, 11% of the polled were 18-29 years old, yet only 4.2% of the males and 3.2% of the females were between 18-29. That means, there were 119 total 18-29 year olds, of which 19 were male and 20 were female.

What?!

Am I missing something here?
kylejack
10-20-2007, 12:48 AM
That's % of the gender. Of the men polled, 4.2% of those men were 18-29.
zebov
10-20-2007, 12:52 AM
That's % of the gender. Of the men polled, 4.2% of those men were 18-29.

Right, and there were 456 men, and 626 women. This means there should be 39 total 18-29 year olds, yet under the "Total" column, it lists the same group as being 11% of the total 1082 which is 119 people. How can there be 39 total "males and females 18-29", but 119 total "18-29 year olds"?
kylejack
10-20-2007, 12:55 AM
Right, and there were 456 men, and 626 women. This means there should be 39 total 18-29 year olds, yet under the "Total" column, it lists the same group as being 11% of the total 1082 which is 119 people. How can there be 39 total "males and females 18-29", but 119 total "18-29 year olds"?

456 males in the study. 4.2% of them are 18-29 year olds, or about 20. 626 females in the study, 3.2% of them are 18-29 years old, or about 19. Total of 39 18-29 year olds, which is 11% of 1082.
zebov
10-20-2007, 01:02 AM
456 males in the study. 4.2% of them are 18-29 year olds, or about 20. 626 females in the study, 3.2% of them are 18-29 years old, or about 19. Total of 39 18-29 year olds, which is 11% of 1082.

Sadly, 39 is not 11% of 1082. And this is where my confusion is.
kylejack
10-20-2007, 01:03 AM
Sadly, 39 is not 11% of 1082. And this is where my confusion is.

Oh hm. Maybe "base" means something else. Strange. I don't know.
kylejack
10-20-2007, 01:07 AM
Oh, I see. Base is the number of people they actually talked to and % is the weight they gave it. In other words, they expect primary voters to be 11% 18-29 year olds, 30% 30-44 year-olds and etc.
zebov
10-20-2007, 01:09 AM
oh! ok. that makes sense now.
kylejack
10-20-2007, 01:12 AM
If you think we'll get more youth turn out, you could re-balance those percentages fairly easily and come up with an alternate reality poll.

The 65+ bunch really stung us the worst.