More Allies for Rand Paul Senate 2012: States to target with GOP liberty candidates

[libertythor]

I have listed the best bets IMO for nominating and electing liberty candidates for the Senate in 2012. The races listed in bold have a dual advantage of being in both inexpensive media markets places likely to go GOP regardless of nominee.

Democrats Ben Nelson and Claire McCaskill are both extremely vulnerable in 2012, and Democrats face slaughter in both of those states over anger dealing with ObamaCare and Cap and Trade.

Let's start gearing up with fundraising for potential liberty candidates in at least 6 senate primaries!



Republicans to target in Primaries

Bob Corker of Tennessee
Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
Orrin Hatch of Utah
John Barrasso of Wyoming
Kent Conrad of North Dakota


Democrats to take down with nominated GOP Liberty Candidates

Claire McCaskill of Missouri
Jon Tester of Montana
Ben Nelson of Nebraska
Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
Kent Conrad of North Dakota
Joe Manchin of West Virginia




* 3.1.1 Dianne Feinstein of California
* 3.1.2 Tom Carper of Delaware
* 3.1.3 Bill Nelson of Florida
* 3.1.4 Daniel Akaka of Hawaii
* 3.1.5 Ben Cardin of Maryland
* 3.1.6 Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
* 3.1.7 Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota
* 3.1.8 Claire McCaskill of Missouri
* 3.1.9 Jon Tester of Montana
* 3.1.10 Ben Nelson of Nebraska
* 3.1.11 Bob Menendez of New Jersey
* 3.1.12 Jeff Bingaman of New Mexico
* 3.1.13 Kirsten Gillibrand of New York
* 3.1.14 Kent Conrad of North Dakota
* 3.1.15 Sherrod Brown of Ohio
* 3.1.16 Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
* 3.1.17 Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island
* 3.1.18 Jim Webb of Virginia
* 3.1.19 Maria Cantwell of Washington
* 3.1.20 Joe Manchin of West Virginia
* 3.1.21 Herb Kohl of Wisconsin

# 3.2 Independent incumbent elections

* 3.2.1 Joe Lieberman of Connecticut
* 3.2.2 Bernie Sanders of Vermont

# 3.3 Republican incumbent elections

* 3.3.1 Jon Kyl of Arizona
* 3.3.2 Richard Lugar of Indiana
* 3.3.3 Olympia Snowe of Maine
* 3.3.4 Scott Brown of Massachusetts
* 3.3.5 Roger Wicker of Mississippi
* 3.3.6 John Ensign of Nevada
* 3.3.7 Bob Corker of Tennessee
* 3.3.8 Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas
* 3.3.9 Orrin Hatch of Utah
* 3.3.10 John Barrasso of Wyoming

[Melissa]

Lugar in Indiana is horrible hoping that A few I have heard may run will do so, so we can get him out

[Agorism]

Get Scott Brown out.

[Maximus]

This is fantastic, I was hoping for a thread like this.

I think we should focus on Utah, after what happened with Mike Lee, it seems there is a strong liberty/anti-establishment movement in Utah.

Who do we have in Texas, Utah, North Dakota, and Wyoming that can make a move?

[forsmant]

Ben Nelson will be taken down by republican establishment. Here in Nebraska the republicans have a waiting list of candidates. With John Brunning, the current attorney general, already throwing his hat in the ring.

A note from Nebraska's c4l leader, says Tony Fulton is a possible liberty candidate. She also mentioned Pat Flynn but questioned his conservatism.

[South Park Fan]

Kent Conrad is a Democrat, for the record.

[libertythor]

Kent Conrad is a Democrat, for the record.

I have him listed as such.

[libertythor]

Ben Nelson will be taken down by republican establishment. Here in Nebraska the republicans have a waiting list of candidates. With John Brunning, the current attorney general, already throwing his hat in the ring.

A note from Nebraska's c4l leader, says Tony Fulton is a possible liberty candidate. She also mentioned Pat Flynn but questioned his conservatism.

Nebraska IMO should be at the top of the list. A solid Rand Paul or Justin Amash-type candidate would win the general election if nominated Much care must be taken on speaking about Medicare and Social Security because of the age distribution of voters in NE. Attacking Obamacare should be sufficient.

[Agorism]

I want to get rid of Scott Brown just to see the look on David Frum's face.

http://www.jonesreport.com/image/04_08/280408frum.jpg

[libertythor]

This is fantastic, I was hoping for a thread like this.

I think we should focus on Utah, after what happened with Mike Lee, it seems there is a strong liberty/anti-establishment movement in Utah.

Who do we have in Texas, Utah, North Dakota, and Wyoming that can make a move?

Utah is another great choice! I would try to find a liberty-oriented Mormon that will appeal to both the religious and the secular small government people. SLC seems to be a fairly expensive market, but it is only one expensive market as opposed to about four in Texas. Utah would be a great destination for resources.

Wyoming has the advantage of a low population and inexpensive media markets. Here mailers and radio ads would make the difference. Also remember that the Wyoming presidential GOP primary is done by mail and that direct voter outreach must begin in November 2011! That is how Duncan Hunter took that state while RP grassroots was left in the dust.

[libertythor]

I want to get rid of Scott Brown just to see the look on David Frum's face.

http://www.jonesreport.com/image/04_08/280408frum.jpg

Scott Brown pisses me off, but Massachusetts is much like California in general voter sentiment. I would focus on the congressional races in the more conservative parts of Massachusetts to try and flip a few blue districts, but getting even a Jim Demint elected statewide is extremely difficult.

[wormyguy]

Here's my list (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=262820):

Arizona - Currently Kyl - Rep. Jeff Flake
California - Currently Feinstein - John Dennis, Fmr. Rep. Barry Goldwater Jr., Fmr. Rep. Bob Dornan
Connecticut - Currently Lieberman - Peter Schiff
Delaware - Currently Carper - ?
Florida - Currently Nelson - ?
Hawaii - Currently Akaka - ?
Indiana - Currently Lugar - Fmr. Rep. John Hostettler
Maine - Currently Snowe - Gov. Paul LePage, Jason Levesque
Massachusetts - Currently Brown - Thomas Woods, Sean Bielat
Maryland - Currently Cardin - Fmr. Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, Eric Wargotz, Jim Rutledge?
Michigan - Currently Stabenow - Rep. Justin Amash
Minnesota - Currently Klobuchar - (Gov.) Tom Emmer, Fmr. Gov. Jesse Ventura or Fmr. Sen. Dean Barkley
Missouri - Currently McCaskill - Chuck Purgason
Montana - Currently Tester - Chuck Baldwin, if he runs as a Republican.
Nebraska - Currently Nelson - State Sen. Tony Fulton
Nevada - Currently Ensign - Sharron Angle
New Jersey - Currently Menendez - Judge Andrew Napolitano
New Mexico - Currently Bingaman - Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson
New York - Currently Gillibrand - Joe DioGuardi, John Stossel, Glenn Beck? (would be entertaining)
North Dakota - Currently Conrad - ?
Ohio - Currently Brown - Fmr. Rep. Jim Traficant?
Pennsylvania - Currently Casey - Sam Rohrer, Peg Luksik
Rhode Island - Currently Whitehouse - ?
Tennessee - Currently Corker - Rep. Jimmy Duncan
Texas - Currently Hutchinson - Rep. Ron Paul, Debra Medina, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams
Utah - Currently Hatch - Rep. Jason Chaffetz
Vermont - Currently Sanders - Len Britton
Virginia - Currently Webb - Pat Buchanan
Washington - Currently Cantwell - Clint Didier
West Virginia - Currently Manchin - John Raese
Wisconsin - Currently Kohl - Dave Westlake
Wyoming - Currently Barasso - ?

[forsmant]

Nebraska IMO should be at the top of the list. A solid Rand Paul or Justin Amash-type candidate would win the general election if nominated Much care must be taken on speaking about Medicare and Social Security because of the age distribution of voters in NE. Attacking Obamacare should be sufficient.

http://www.omaha.com/article/20101106/NEWS01/711069870/1017

I certainly know of no one willing to run as a Rand Paul candidate. Pete Rickets ran in 2006. Hes got money but I question his conservatism. I am a voting member of the county republican party in Omaha, I will ask around to see who may be interested.

[libertythor]

Fulton seems to be pretty solid.


http://www.omaha.com/article/20101106/NEWS01/711069870/1017

I certainly know of no one willing to run as a Rand Paul candidate. Pete Rickets ran in 2006. Hes got money but I question his conservatism. I am a voting member of the county republican party in Omaha, I will ask around to see who may be interested.

[Agorism]

Scott Brown pisses me off, but Massachusetts is much like California in general voter sentiment. I would focus on the congressional races in the more conservative parts of Massachusetts to try and flip a few blue districts, but getting even a Jim Demint elected statewide is extremely difficult.


Sorry no comprising. If we can't win in a blue state, then don't bother.

Compromising got us Dan Coats, George Bush, McCain, Murkowski, etc

[nate895]

For the primaries, we need to focus on the Utah Republican state convention. Because of their unique system, we could possibly kick Hatch out without even a primary. We could have no opposition in the primary if we got over 60% of the vote at the state convention. I'd also love to take out Hutchison, but Texas is so large and expensive to run a statewide campaign, especially to oust an incumbent Senator in a primary. If we have the spare resources, I would say go for it, but we should focus on getting up strong small state campaigns in the Senate. It might be more prestigious to be a Senator from a large state, but all the votes count the same.

Jim Webb will probably be vulnerable in Virginia. Joe Manchin could be vulnerable come 2012 as well. Michigan could be vulnerable. Stabenow was slightly vulnerable (she wound up winning 56-41) in 2006 when Michigan was a solid blue state. Michigan is now, at best for Democrats, a purple state, so she will probably be vulnerable. Tester will be vulnerable, and he is in a cheap state to run in. I have no idea if North Dakota will end up being a possible pickup for R's, but it's worth a shot because of how cheap it is to run there.

I would say to go for Washington as well, but I really think that Washington is too corrupt to even try. Whenever there is a close race, King County always, without fail, comes up with the votes needed to ensure a Democratic victory. It doesn't matter if they have to find a trunk full of votes from felons in some election worker's car the day after the election to do it.

There could be others that will pop-up, but I think we should stick to small-medium sized states, unless there is a great shot we could pickup one in a larger state. That isn't saying we shouldn't run candidates everywhere. I simply think that we should stick the larger part of our resources to winnable races, which are probably small-medium sized states. The best thing to do though is to run candidates everywhere, focus at first at the races we believe are winnable, and then if another candidate gains traction where we didn't think they would have support, divert resources there.

I outline what I think we need to do here (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=266869) and here (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=267148) in order to construct a winning political machine.

[libertythor]

Here's my list (http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=262820):

Arizona - Currently Kyl - Rep. Jeff Flake
Connecticut - Currently Lieberman - Peter Schiff
Indiana - Currently Lugar - Fmr. Rep. John Hostettler
Maine - Currently Snowe - Gov. Paul LePage, Jason Levesque
Michigan - Currently Stabenow - Rep. Justin Amash
Minnesota - Currently Klobuchar - (Gov.) Tom Emmer, Fmr. Gov. Jesse Ventura or Fmr. Sen. Dean Barkley
Missouri - Currently McCaskill - Chuck Purgason
Montana - Currently Tester - Chuck Baldwin, if he runs as a Republican.
Nebraska - Currently Nelson - State Sen. Tony Fulton
Nevada - Currently Ensign - Sharron Angle
New Jersey - Currently Menendez - Judge Andrew Napolitano
New Mexico - Currently Bingaman - Fmr. Gov. Gary Johnson
Ohio - Currently Brown - Fmr. Rep. Jim Traficant?
Pennsylvania - Currently Casey - Sam Rohrer, Peg Luksik
Tennessee - Currently Corker - Rep. Jimmy Duncan
Texas - Currently Hutchinson - Rep. Ron Paul, Debra Medina, Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams
Utah - Currently Hatch - Rep. Jason Chaffetz
Vermont - Currently Sanders - Len Britton
Virginia - Currently Webb - Pat Buchanan
Washington - Currently Cantwell - Clint Didier
West Virginia - Currently Manchin - John Raese
Wisconsin - Currently Kohl - Dave Westlake




Here is a culled list cutting out all highly expensive and huge states except for Texas.

[Brett85]

Jason Chaffetz is a representative from Utah who is libertarian leaning, and he may challenge Hatch in 2012.

Edit: I didn't see the post above that had him listed.

[JoshLowry]

We should stay as pure to the message of non-interventionism as possible.

Just throwing that out there. Good thread!

[forsmant]

http://www.tonyfulton.com/issues/#economy

Tony Fulton recently ran and lost for state treasurer.

[libertythor]

http://www.tonyfulton.com/issues/#economy

Tony Fulton recently ran and lost for state treasurer.

This is good for name recognition. Another option is to find a fusion candidate for the GOP and the Nebraska Party.

[Agorism]

It's time to purge the republican party of moderates and neoconservatives.

O wait that means all of them!

[DeadheadForPaul]

I fully endorse Chaffetz in Utah.
He is a great guy and also not some prick or self-promoter. He sleeps on a cot in his office in order to save his family $1500/month on an apt in Washington.

He is against body scanners at the airport, called for withdrawal from Afghanistan, against importing nuclear waste into Utah, and is very fiscally conservative.

He does "cot-side" chats for his constituents, was the kicker for BYU, and is a Mormon (big plus for his candidacy)


Utah is the kind of place that we could pull off a liberty candidate

As for Corker in TN - the man is one of the most wealthy in the Senate, so he will outspend us. He's also fairly popular in East TN. We'd have to start generating negativity around him pretty soon.
Rep. Jimmy Duncan is a member of the Republican Liberty Caucus with Ron Paul and would be a good choice to replace Corker. I'm not sure if he would choose to challenge Corker though unless Corker really dropped in the polls

But then again, I guess Rand and Mike Lee came out of nowhere too so...

[Brooklyn Red Leg]

We should stay as pure to the message of non-interventionism as possible.

Indeed! I also say we need to reach out to non-interventionist Democrats that are running in areas that are heavily Democratic where our chances of putting in a Republican are lousy. There has to be Liberty Democrats out there that we can back. That will show those that are skeptical of us aren't simply another group of partisan douchebags.

[cindy25]

Olympia Snowe should be targeted.

both NY and CA will be bankrupt by 2012, might be opportunity there

[Brett85]

Olympia Snowe should be targeted.

both NY and CA will be bankrupt by 2012, might be opportunity there

No, I think that we should concentrate on states that we actually have a decent chance of winning.

[phesoge]

For 2012. I say absolutely focus on states wit hthe best chance of winning. Kentucky was a good start with Rand.

Utah, and Arizona are a great place to start. Chaffetz is a solid guy, and I have really been impressed with him. Kyle from Arizone is an absolute NEO con piece and replacing him with Flake would be a great step for the Libery movement. The state that gave us GOldwater has to be able to be do better then Kyle and Mc(LETS GO TO WAR)Cain. Another plus about those states is they are relatively inexpensive compared to the otther Republican leaning states like Florida, which any Liberty Candidate is gonna get nailed on the Medicare and SS (i.e the dems are gonna run one add saying: The republcian wants grandma to starve to death), or a state like Texas which would cost a fortune.

I think Conrad in the Dakota, and Tester in Montana would be a good place to nail the Dems. Both those states eem to be more receptive to liberty minded candidates. My number one Target in the mountain west would be Baucus, but hes not up till 2014, and somehow he got elected with like 70 percent of the vote in '08 IDK HOW.

[Adrock]

Is there any word of Kyl retiring? I am not sure Flake would be willing to run against him in a primary. We also have to think about backfilling any potential seat openings with liberty candidates.

[Agorism]

David Frum and GOP doesn't want Tea Party to challenge Scott Brown and Snowe, Collins, Lugar, etc etc? Too bad.

Tea Party needs too co-opt Washington and not the other way around.

[Brett85]

Is there any word of Kyl retiring? I am not sure Flake would be willing to run against him in a primary. We also have to think about backfilling any potential seat openings with liberty candidates.

So what makes Flake better than Kyl?

[libertythor]

David Frum and GOP doesn't want Tea Party to challenge Scott Brown and Snowe, Collins, Lugar, etc etc? Too bad.

Tea Party needs too co-opt Washington and not the other way around.

Snowe is an excellent target, and I wouldn't mind risking having that state go blue because Snowe might as well be a liberal Democrat.

[phesoge]

So what makes Flake better than Kyl?

He voted against No Child LEft behind, Sarbanes Oxely, medicare Prescription Part D, and Homeland Security Act. He has stated he would liek to end the Embargo against Cuba, has recently been cautious of war, and made statement about our cuttent quagmire in Afghanistan. Kyle is a GOP yesman who would vote for Universal Healthcare if one of the elites told him too.

[Adrock]

He voted against No Child LEft behind, Sarbanes Oxely, medicare Prescription Part D, and Homeland Security Act. He has stated he would liek to end the Embargo against Cuba, has recently been cautious of war, and made statement about our cuttent quagmire in Afghanistan. Kyle is a GOP yesman who would vote for Universal Healthcare if one of the elites told him too.

This ^^^

Plus he is really good on earmarks and spending in general. He would be a great upgrade over Kyl. That bar isn't set to high to begin with though.

[Baptist]

Maybe we could convince Judge Nopalitano to run in New Jersey?

Or maybe Gary Johnson for New Mexico? It's probably not likely that he will be president, but I'm sure we could get him a Senate seat.

[libertythor]

Maybe we could convince Judge Nopalitano to run in New Jersey?

Or maybe Gary Johnson for New Mexico? It's probably not likely that he will be president, but I'm sure we could get him a Senate seat.

The latter is the most viable option, but why not try for both? Gary Johnson has near total name recognition in New Mexico, and Judge Napolitano has a nationwide network of potential donors and also appeal that extends outside of the Ron Paul liberty movement.

[nate895]

I think we should run everywhere, I just don't think we need to waste resources on unwinnable races.

In fact, more effective money spent would be the construction of a political machine. Instead of spending all this money piecemeal on each individual candidate, we need to organize supporters to be able to support multiple candidates with the same money. Each candidate needs to get donations on top of that to win, but first we need to build a solid base so that we can have a relatively strong showing regardless of whether a particular candidate has a lot of money.

This needs to be done, and fast, if we have any hope of capitalizing on our gains this past election. I have no idea if we can construct a sufficient apparatus to win the 2012 presidential race, but I think we ought to try.

[libertythor]

Has there been any progress with the CFL toward this?


I think we should run everywhere, I just don't think we need to waste resources on unwinnable races.

In fact, more effective money spent would be the construction of a political machine. Instead of spending all this money piecemeal on each individual candidate, we need to organize supporters to be able to support multiple candidates with the same money. Each candidate needs to get donations on top of that to win, but first we need to build a solid base so that we can have a relatively strong showing regardless of whether a particular candidate has a lot of money.

This needs to be done, and fast, if we have any hope of capitalizing on our gains this past election. I have no idea if we can construct a sufficient apparatus to win the 2012 presidential race, but I think we ought to try.

[nate895]

Has there been any progress with the CFL toward this?

I am pretty much done with the C4L considering they are practically asking for tax trouble. The C4L is a 501(c)4, which means it should be nowhere near as involved in politics as it already is. We could only add to the bloodbath at the IRS by having them work on building a political machine, which is the job of party organizations or 527's.

[libertythor]

I am pretty much done with the C4L considering they are practically asking for tax trouble. The C4L is a 501(c)4, which means it should be nowhere near as involved in politics as it already is. We could only add to the bloodbath at the IRS by having them work on building a political machine, which is the job of party organizations or 527's.

We should put some pressure on the C4L for having it changed into a dual wing organization with a 501 educational side and a 527 political side. The educational side could probably even accept foreign funding.

Example: Both have the same directors, but the donation appeals are different. The educational wing raises money to send out issues brochures in off months of the political cycle, and then the political wing jumps into action during the primary and general elections.

[nate895]

We should put some pressure on the C4L for having it changed into a dual wing organization with a 501 educational side and a 527 political side. The educational side could probably even accept foreign funding.

Or we could just form our own 527 campaign for liberty of some variety.

[libertythor]

Or we could just form our own 527 campaign for liberty of some variety.

That is an excellent idea. The current CFL should focus on issues advertising during the off periods, like from now until June of 2011, by targeting registered voters with issues brochures on foreign policy.

Imagine every registered Republican in a couple of congressional districts in solid GOP states like Georgia or Texas receiving a brochure outlining why our overseas adventures are not conservative causes every week! Then they see full page ads in their papers stating the same every other Sunday. By the time the primaries roll around, liberty candidates would already be in a stronger position, and it would be possible for a liberty 527 to kick in and provide funding and advertising for such candidates.

[DeadheadForPaul]

Scott Brown pisses me off, but Massachusetts is much like California in general voter sentiment. I would focus on the congressional races in the more conservative parts of Massachusetts to try and flip a few blue districts, but getting even a Jim Demint elected statewide is extremely difficult.

I agree. There's no point in hemorrhaging money on 1 race we lose when we can spend that money on 3-4 other races we can win

Let's remember, the 2 best new Senators are coming from conservative states (KY + Utah). It's much easier to take over in the primary where there are less voters...then in the general, the GOP is guaranteed to win, so our guy wins

[nate895]

That is an excellent idea. The current CFL should focus on issues advertising during the off periods, like from now until June of 2011, by targeting registered voters with issues brochures on foreign policy.

Imagine every registered Republican in a couple of congressional districts in solid GOP states like Georgia or Texas receiving a brochure outlining why our overseas adventures are not conservative causes every week! Then they see full page ads in their papers stating the same every other Sunday. By the time the primaries roll around, liberty candidates would already be in a stronger position, and it would be possible for a liberty 527 to kick in and provide funding and advertising for such candidates.

That is a great idea, I just don't know if the C4L has the kind of money. The thing that needs to be done is a concerted effort over the next year to takeover the Tea Party, and get the current members solidly behind us. I have two threads on the matter, just look them up in my thread post history (I'm tired of linking to them everywhere). The Tea Party has money and manpower, and is already mostly on our side. If we could combine the grassroots activism of the Tea Party with the intellectual power of total constitutional conservatism, it would be a force to be reckoned with for sure.

[Anti Federalist]

Get Scott Brown out.

Scott Brown is a dead man walking.

His election was a fluke.

[libertythor]

Scott Brown is a dead man walking.

His election was a fluke.

He will either get killed in the GOP primary or lose to a Democrat. Carla Howell the Libertarian should join the GOP and mount her challenge. She has raised millions in the past for her third party runs, so she should do even better as a Republican.

[Anti Federalist]

He will either get killed in the GOP primary or lose to a Democrat. Carla Howell the Libertarian should join the GOP and mount her challenge. She has raised millions in the past for her third party runs, so she should do even better as a Republican.

That's not a bad idea.

[CryLibertyOrDeath]

Menendez is certainly weak in New Jersey according to recent polling and the strong GOP-friendly swings in Middlesex, Burlington and Bergen Counties. We need to see if we can get Christie to support the same guy we want, which is unfortunately unlikely due to the fact that Tom Kean Jr. has probably already been pre-ordained by the NJ GOP establishment.

[Maximus]

Bump

What I have seen so far that we should really focus on:

Utah (Chaffetz)
Wyoming
New Mexico (Johnson)

In the case of Utah and Wyoming, if we win the primary (or convention) we win the general election), because the states are beyond red, these should be priority #1.