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Agorism
11-05-2010, 10:40 PM
http://media.katu.com/images/100826_Lisa_Murkowski.jpg

Murkowski acts like victor, though questions linger
WRITE-INS: Valid votes are yet to be determined, counted.
(http://www.adn.com/2010/11/04/1537148/murkowski-acts-like-victor-but.html)


Alaska U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski is acting as though she already has pulled off an improbable victory after her write-in candidacy, enthusiastically thanking supporters and telling them they've made history.

She may have won. Or she may be overly optimistic.

Murkowski's fate rests in the reading of more than 83,000 write-in ballots. As of Thursday, initial returns showed write-in ballots held a 13,439-vote edge over GOP nominee Joe Miller, but it's not clear how many of those are for Murkowski -- or how many of the ballots have been cast properly.

At least 37,800 absentee, early and questioned ballots also need to be tallied.

One major issue that could ultimately send the race to court: voter intent.

The law calls for write-in votes to have the ballot oval filled in and the candidate's full name or last name next to it. That section states that the rules are mandatory and there are "no exceptions to them."

Lt. Gov. Craig Campbell, who oversees elections, said this week that ballot counters would debate over ballots on which there are spelling errors before determining whether they should count. Miller attorney Thomas Van Flein suggested that no such debate was needed, because clear standards exist for counting write-ins. He stopped short of saying the campaign would sue over misspelled ballots counted toward Murkowski's total. But he said the recourse it has is going to court.

"We intend to have the state of Alaska follow the law," he said Thursday. Counting ballots, he said, is "an objective test, not a subjective test."

Campbell's spokeswoman and the Division of Elections director pointed to case law -- court rulings on the law -- when asked about the use of discretion in determining voter intent.

While statewide write-in efforts in Alaska have occurred before, the rules have changed, making it difficult to accurately gauge what Murkowski calls "slippage," write-ins she'll lose because they were improperly cast. Still, she figures she'll lose only a "smaller" number of those ballots.

Since Election Night on Tuesday, she has sounded supremely confident as she touts the historic campaign she and her supporters waged. The last U.S. Senate candidate to win a write-in bid did so 56 years ago.


"The story of my write-in campaign will be told and retold; it will change the definition of American politics ... (a)nd it re-enforces what we all knew: In Alaska, anything is possible when you have a small group of people who are determined to change the world," she said in an e-mail to supporters.

Murkowski said her campaign did everything it could to avoid a repeat of the Republican primary that she lost in August to Miller, touting her strengths while aggressively responding to charges against her record.

It also reached out both to English and non-English speakers, educating voters on how to cast votes for her in a way in which the ballots could not be disputed. The campaign even handed out rubbery blue wristbands that voters could discreetly bring with them into polling booths, depicting the process, and urged voters to write her name on their hands, if they needed, to get it right.

Her campaign also believes it will secure a huge chunk of the still-outstanding absentee vote, though Miller, an Army veteran, believes he did well among absentee military voters. Those ballots aren't due until Nov. 17.

The write-in count is due to start Wednesday. Van Flein questioned why the state moved up the count -- it initially was set to start Nov. 18, eight days later -- saying the earlier date plus holding the count in Juneau, created "great challenges" logistically.

Campbell has said he moved up the date to keep the candidates and Alaska's residents from remaining in limbo so long.

Knightskye
11-05-2010, 10:44 PM
I thought Miller would win the race on election night by about 5 points and it would all be over.

Since it isn't over, I'm thinking a wide majority of Murkowski's write-in votes will be validated, and she'll still be Senator.

MRoCkEd
11-05-2010, 10:46 PM
I thought Miller would win the race on election night by about 5 points and it would all be over.

Since it isn't over, I'm thinking a wide majority of Murkowski's write-in votes will be validated, and she'll still be Senator.

:(

I'm still holding out hope, however unlikely it may be, that Joe Miller pulls it off.

AGRP
11-05-2010, 10:47 PM
The law is the law and her last name isn't Smith.

Agorism
11-05-2010, 10:47 PM
I thought Miller would win the race on election night by about 5 points and it would all be over.

Since it isn't over, I'm thinking a wide majority of Murkowski's write-in votes will be validated, and she'll still be Senator.

I think so too, but I read before the election that write in needed to have at least a 5 point lead for Murkowski to win. She's not too far above that so things are unpredictable.

james1906
11-05-2010, 10:49 PM
Who goes out of their way to re-elect the status quo?

Knightskye
11-05-2010, 11:29 PM
Who goes out of their way to re-elect the status quo?

Pork-loving Alaskans.

dead drunks dont dance
11-05-2010, 11:50 PM
If they last name picked is murkowski then she wins POSSIBLY. If not, she loses.

RonPaulFanInGA
11-06-2010, 06:54 AM
I thought Miller would win the race on election night by about 5 points and it would all be over.

Since it isn't over, I'm thinking a wide majority of Murkowski's write-in votes will be validated, and she'll still be Senator.

Yeah.

You can throw out a few of those votes, which will be for 'Mickey Mouse' or one of the no-name write-in candidates. But those votes will be very few. It's safe to say nearly all those write-ins are for Murkowski.

In 2008, there were 1,077 total write-in votes in Alaska's Senate race that year. Now there are 83,201. It's because of Murkowski.

So Murkowski has, after those votes are thrown out, probably around a 13,000 vote lead out of 203,000 votes cast. It's really, really hard to imagine enough of those votes are misspelled egregiously enough to be thrown out and change the outcome.

wormyguy
11-06-2010, 08:06 AM
Given the Tammany Hall-esque machine in Alaska, this is one race where I'm fully willing to believe the ballot boxes really were stuffed.

MozoVote
11-06-2010, 08:34 AM
I've seen posts on other forums from real Alaskans who say the state has a very insular and corrupt political atmosphere - years before this.

Aratus
11-06-2010, 08:48 AM
if there is a confusion, would the top two vote getters have a run-off?

t0rnado
11-06-2010, 12:01 PM
if there is a confusion, would the top two vote getters have a run-off?

No, that's not possible in Alaska.

Lovecraftian4Paul
11-06-2010, 12:03 PM
I'm really disappointed in Alaska. First Palin, and now they go out of their way to re-elect a bailout loving RINO. Might as well have just voted in the Democrat.