Jim Geraghty: I'm sensing a Super-Wave

[Agorism]

First Loughlin. Then Raczkowski. And Now, Scontras.
October 29, 2010 7:34 P.M.
By Jim Geraghty
Tags: Chellie Pingree, Dean Scontras

The Super-Wave sure looks possible in the House. My epic-length predictions articles (handled House, Senate and governors separately) should be going up midday Monday, but throughout the day, each pick that I thought was a little optimistic is greeted by a poll that suggests it’s quite possible.

First John Loughlin, then Rocky Roczkowski, and now… Dean Scontras in Maine.

Republican challenger Dean Scontras has moved slightly ahead of incumbent U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree, although they remain in a statistical dead heat in their 1st Congressional District race, according to the fourth and final wave of The Maine Poll.

Scontras, an alternative-energy entrepreneur from Eliot, received 45 percent of respondents’ support compared to 41 percent for Pingree, in the poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday for MaineToday Media by the Portland research firm Critical Insights.

The sample size of 295 likely voters yields a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7% at a 95 percent confidence level. A week ago, Pingree led Scontras by five points, 45-40, which also signaled a statistical tie.



Not a great poll — small sample size, large margin of error. But Pingree hasn’t been above 50 since September.

[Indy Vidual]

Super-Wave!
We need more liberty candidates, and it is great to have at least some winning. :D

[Stary Hickory]

People have been pissed on laughed at, taunted, mocked, derided, and attacked by a burdensome government who uses only force and threats of bodily harm to accomplish it's ends.

Once people start to unleash their pent up frustration and angst it will be a torrent of hell. I have felt it like never before, it has been horrible. Admittedly the same stuff has always been going on in the past, but never this in your face, deliberate attacks on our Constitution and rights. It's always at the very least been dressed all pretty.

Sometimes I want to go outside and just scream I get so angry at arrogant people who feel they have some divine right to dictate the lives of other people. This kind of feeling will probably translate into a big GOP win, they had better figure out exactly why people are voting for them.

Hint it's not because the GOP is any good at all. If they want to continue to get support they had better commit to reducing government and stopping those ridiculous wars....and Obamacare....it's also target number one.

GOP Senators are always the problem, such easy sellouts to corporations and the industrial military complex. I can only hope it's different this time.

[parocks]

I like the question in that poll about enthusiasm.

LePage is the tea party Republican candidate for Governor in Maine.

His people are "More Enthusiastic" than usual - 70%

The other 2 candidates have 40% more enthusiastic.

That's the enthusiasm gap which some believe is strongly related to turnout.


First Loughlin. Then Raczkowski. And Now, Scontras.
October 29, 2010 7:34 P.M.
By Jim Geraghty
Tags: Chellie Pingree, Dean Scontras

The Super-Wave sure looks possible in the House. My epic-length predictions articles (handled House, Senate and governors separately) should be going up midday Monday, but throughout the day, each pick that I thought was a little optimistic is greeted by a poll that suggests it’s quite possible.

First John Loughlin, then Rocky Roczkowski, and now… Dean Scontras in Maine.


Not a great poll — small sample size, large margin of error. But Pingree hasn’t been above 50 since September.