PPPPolls: Final WV poll results

[Agorism]

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/10/manchin-favored-in-wv.html


Manchin leads John Raese 51-46 in PPP's final look at the race.

[MRoCkEd]

Aw, man.

[Brett85]

That's closer than PPP had it the last time, and their polls usually lean left. Take their polls with a grain of salt.

[Agorism]

If Gallup numbers are right, John Raese wins easily.

[Brett85]

Looking at the internals of this poll, they sampled 55% Democrats and 34% Republicans. Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the 2008 election by 13 points. PPP is claiming that Dems are going to increase their advantage by 8 points this time. I don't buy it. At the very least turn out will end up being the same as it was in 2008, when Dems outnumbered Republicans by 13%.

[malkusm]

PPP can afford to be wrong on a race or two, and if you look at their Twitter feed, they have used personal pronouns when describing the race ("We" will keep the Senate).

I think Traditional Conservative might be on to something. This one bears watching Tuesday.

[Inkblots]

Well, phooey.

[parocks]

The undercounting of Republicans is happening all over the place.

Most of the individual polls of specific races in specific states do not take into consideration any of the tsunami effect. Very little if any increased turnout by Republicans is factored in.



Looking at the internals of this poll, they sampled 55% Democrats and 34% Republicans. Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the 2008 election by 13 points. PPP is claiming that Dems are going to increase their advantage by 8 points this time. I don't buy it. At the very least turn out will end up being the same as it was in 2008, when Dems outnumbered Republicans by 13%.

[South Park Fan]

John Raese isn't a liberty candidate as far as I'm concerned. However, it is still an interesting statistics project to observe elections, and I would give Raese a 1 in 3 shot in winning.