NC49 moved from "Safe" to "Dem Leaning"

[MozoVote]

Interesting. Article from last week:

http://www.enctoday.com/news/republican-7632-havelock-district-house.html



In addition, another House race that was considered safe for Democrats has moved into the Democrat favored category. That’s in the 49th District, where incumbent Democratic Rep. John May is still favored over GOP challenger Glen Bradley. Both hail from Franklin County.

“While District 49 is a solid Democratic district, polling done earlier this campaign season leads me to believe that this race could be tighter than originally expected,” Barry Smith (M2Mpolitics.com) said.

[TCE]

That means Gunny has to push hardcore to turn it into a toss-up. Go Gunny!

[GunnyFreedom]

It's already a toss up in reality. ENC Today is a little behind the curve. They expect my opponent to make up 10 points with direct mail and glad-handing. I need to maximize my direct mail so as to prevent his ascent.

[South Park Fan]

How can he still be favored when you had a seven point advantage in PPP's poll?

[MozoVote]

Glen has to break the straight tickets. There is still a large Dem registration advantage in NC. Even if his positions are popular, people have to know who he is.

[GunnyFreedom]

How can he still be favored when you had a seven point advantage in PPP's poll?

8 points, with 20% undecided. Unaffiliateds are breaking 75% (R) this year, and Dems are breaking 20% (R) this year, so the composition of the undecided will make or break the victory here.

Really it (sadly) all comes down to money. I am doing everything I can to raise money locally, but I have a $12,000 direct mail plan that I am going to have to shoe-horn into the $5,500 cash we have on hand right now. I am working right now to maximize the effect by targeting soft dems in battleground precincts and dem strongholds. Between Saturday morning and the election, we are going to be non-stop hitting the soft dems with mailers, litdrops, canvassing, and phonebanking. It will be the most difficult audience, but the (R)'s and (U)'s are pretty much bought and sold.

With about 30 volunteers both this weekend and next to help on the soft-dem canvass, I would anticipate a 10 point victory on election day. If I can't get any help at all (past RPH and my core-group), then it really is a tossup.

In essence, win or lose is going to boil down to 1) funding my direct mail campaign, and 2) getting warm bodies this weekend and next to canvass with me.

[Bergie Bergeron]

You need to post something in General Politics about your need for volunteers. Not that many people visit this subforum unfortunately.

[GunnyFreedom]

You need to post something in General Politics about your need for volunteers. Not that many people visit this subforum unfortunately.


I doubt if anybody in General who does not at least look here is even remotely close enough to come out and help. I am guessing that anybody within 3 hours drive of this district on RPF's is already paying attention. Could be a bad guess - but we can't get into the habit of cluttering up someone from Idaho's GenPol with an NC request for boots on the ground. :o Two years from now if that were the practice this whole forum could get unusable from the congestion.