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View Full Version : New Independent Poll for Amash: Race Tighter Than Expected




Imperial
10-22-2010, 04:53 PM
From MLive.com (http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2010/10/3rd_congress_poll_only_2_perce.html)

An independent poll released Thursday of 400 likely voters in the 3rd District Congressional race between Republican Justin Amash and Democrat Pat Miles Jr. yielded some surprising findings.

Amash, a Cascade Township state representative, leads Miles, a Grand Rapids lawyer, 46-37 percent in the poll commissioned by the Detroit Free Press and four Michigan TV stations.

Amash has been running like an incumbent for several months but still does not top 46 percent in a district that is 48 percent Republican at its base when independents who lean Republican are factored in.
Veteran pollster Bernie Porn said Miles was doing better than most analysts expected, given the partisan strength of the district.

"It would seem as though a lot of establishment Republicans are not pleased with the nominee," Porn said.
Still, Porn said it would take the "influx of an awful lot of money" to make it real close.

Son of Detroit
10-22-2010, 04:58 PM
Veteran pollster Bernie Porn

Oh that's gotta suck.

MRoCkEd
10-22-2010, 05:01 PM
9 points this close... he's got it.

Michigan11
10-22-2010, 06:23 PM
Strange how almost every poll in the country is tightening supposedly lately. Any theories anyone?

Imperial
10-22-2010, 07:54 PM
Strange how almost every poll in the country is tightening supposedly lately. Any theories anyone?

Election day is approaching, so polls naturally tighten. People's turnout models are just completely screwed up this year because the field is so volatile. Happens when people are pissed.

Aratus
10-23-2010, 11:18 AM
even steven?

50/50? ----------(is there a scott brown surge building they all haven't spotted yet?)--------???

too close to call?

Aratus
10-23-2010, 11:23 AM
in january OUR polls at best assumed martha coakley was 50% as scott brown was 50% and this could possibly even send rep. nancy pelosi almost into total retirement in HER san franciso district!!!are all tight races even tigher?
CAN JUSTIN AMASH SQUEAK BY BECUZ THE NARROW~CASTING DATA is 10% to 15% Off?

Jordan
10-23-2010, 11:43 AM
R+ district in a R++++++++++++ year. Amash has this district locked this year, and for the next 100 years.