Dennis within striking distance

[Brett85]

Has anybody heard whether there have actually been any independent polls on this race?

http://www.johndennis2010.com/blog/2010/october/dennis-within-striking-distance-pelosi

[dannno]

Apparently Libertarian4321 has done his own and determined that it is impossible to win.

[oyarde]

Has anybody heard whether there have actually been any independent polls on this race?

http://www.johndennis2010.com/blog/2010/october/dennis-within-striking-distance-pelosi

Check the Rasmussen site and see what they have . It will be more accurate .

[LibertyEagle]

It sure would be nice if he would win.

http://www.johndennis2010.com/issues/federal-reserve

[Brett85]

Check the Rasmussen site and see what they have . It will be more accurate .

Rasmussen doesn't poll house races.

[oyarde]

Rasmussen doesn't poll house races.

Crap , I did not know that . This sure would have been a good year to start .

[MRoCkEd]

It will be a miracle if he gets 40%

[oyarde]

Check Dick Morris and see what he has .

[oyarde]

It will be a miracle if he gets 40%

Maybe , and maybe he is there now .

[oyarde]

Just in case she loses , I would like to request a dancing moticon smiley face to be added .

[surf]

isn't every R running against Pelosi?

this guy is so cool, i'd do backflips if he won.

imagine if he had a bit of monetary support from the party....

[ChickenHawk]

There was a poll back in the spring that had her approval rating in the district at 60%. Considering that I suppose 40% is possible. If she loses every Democrat in the country with an opponent will lose too. That's how big a wave it would take.

[Knightskye]

Two weeks ago, the New York Times did a profile of Dennis.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/10/us/politics/10dennis.html?_r=1

John Dennis, a candidate for California’s Eighth Congressional District, recently stood in a gay bar in the Castro district of San Francisco and came out of the closet — ever so slowly — to a table of six older gay men.
“O.K., we’re all sitting here, we all have a drink here?” Mr. Dennis said, taking a deep breath. “O.K.: I’m a Republican.”

“Oh. My. God,” responded Chris Craig, a 72-year old Democrat who is retired.

“Are you sure?” another man at the table asked.

Mr. Dennis smiled and nodded, and continued on in his curious and probably quixotic mission: to unseat Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, a Democrat who was elected to her 12th term in 2008 with a slim 72 percent of the vote.

Do you think all those Democrats, especially with Prop. 19 on the ballot, would vote for a Republican, no matter how "left of Pelosi" he is on some issues?

[RonPaulCult]

Has anybody heard whether there have actually been any independent polls on this race?

http://www.johndennis2010.com/blog/2010/october/dennis-within-striking-distance-pelosi

Hello - I am on the staff for the John Dennis campaign. Loose lips sink ships so I'm not going to say too much but - I stand by this press release (though I didn't write it). Striking distance is the way to put it! I've been talking to voters in San Francisco most days of the week for this entire year and believe me - people here are PISSED like people everywhere are.

This town has never had a major party candidate to vote for. 2 years ago they had a neo-con who didn't run much of a campaign. When they find out there's somebody with common sense out there AND he's against the war and pro-pot decriminalization - they are sold!

We are running a very hard, very effective campaign and we are seeing major results. We wouldn't be getting the national and local media attention if that weren't the case.

Pelosi is foolishly not campaigning and so we control the conversation. Don't get me wrong - you have your people here who vote for the Democrat no matter what not to mention the hardcore Nancy fans - but I would dare say the MAJORITY of people here are sick of Pelosi.

The only question remaining is - can we reach all of the voters we need to reach with the message in time to win?

We are having a phonebanking bomb this Saturday and we could always use the help of liberty minded people like those of you on these forums. You understand our campaign better than anybody else out there.

No matter what - don't give up on this campaign. We have a VERY serious shot and I talked to John just today - he is pumped - and he is in it to win it!

If you'd like to help with phone calls please go here:

http://volunteers.johndennis2010.com

[Thomas]

bump!

[libertybrewcity]

John needs about 75-80k votes to win. Republicans will come out and vote, probably only totaling about 20-25k. Therefore he needs lots of independents and anti-pelosi voters. He CANNOT upset the Pelosi-loving hard core dem base.

[libertarian4321]

Apparently Libertarian4321 has done his own and determined that it is impossible to win.

I didn't poll anyone, and I said I liked John Dennis- he'd make a great candidate in a COMPETITIVE district- the CA 8th is NOT COMPETITIVE- it's a one-party fiefdom.

What I did do was give a look at the Demographics of the district:

9% of registered voters are Republican (that is not a typo, it's really NINE percent)
30% are Indies
61% are DEMOCRATS

Just the people who vote "party line" for the Dems are probably enough to ensure a Dem win.

Republicans in ALL races over the past 18 years (not just US House, but Senate, Governor, and President) have pulled between 8% and 28%. The 8% and 28% are outliers- the 28% is the only time any Republican has gone over 20% (moderate pro-gay Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger running against a very weak Dem opponent who got slaughtered in the general election). Typically, Republican candidates get 12-15% in this district, and it's not just underfunded or token candidates- John McCain got 12%, George W. Bush got 15% and 14% respectively, Republican senate candidates have consistently been below 15%.

In other words, Republicans usually lose by MARGINS of 60-75%- that ain't competitive, folks. You could run the best Republican candidate in the country, against the worst Democrat, and the Dem would still win in a landslide.

Bottom line: No Republican will win in this district. Ever. None will ever come close to winning.

It's the safest Dem district in the country. It's a stone cold lock to vote overwhelmingly Dem in the Governor's race, Senate Race, and House race.

You folks are free to ignore this, and I know many of you will. You'll rant and rave. Call me an idiot, or a traitor, or a Dem Party mole- I've seen it before.

You are the same folks that kept screaming that Schiff and many others were going to win, in the face of obvious evidence to the contrary.

Just please don't come out the day after the election with your typical delusional post election ranting:

"I don't understand how a great guy like John Dennis lost All the signs pointed to a Dennis victory!!!! How could this have happened?"

"The election was rigged! Diebold did it! There was intimidation at the polls! Demand a recount! Someone call Alex Jones and tell him to get the word out!"

"The campaign failed us. We should have won. Tyranny inside the campaign set us up to fail! John Dennis is a traitor! His campaign staff are traitors! Get a rope!"

"We lost because of a conspiracy by the NWO/Bilderbergers/International bankers/CFR/Obama/Trilateral Commission/Government/Mossad/(insert bull shit conspiracy theory here)"

John Dennis is going to lose because he's playing in a rigged game where he has no chance. End of story.

In my heart, I hope he wins. In my head, I know he has no chance.

[RonPaulCult]

If I may respond to what 4321 just said...

At the request of the campaign, I spent many weeks just after the primary going over the numbers you posted above. Most of what you said about the past is true. The part about people who always vote along the "party line" being enough to win straight up is not true at all.

I'm not at liberty to say the numbers we are shooting for. I can tell you that we do see a clear path to actually winning this thing. We are basing this on solid evidence - though I suspect you won't believe me.

John has already done 1000 times better than any Republican has ever done in San Francisco. Republicans usually don't spend a cent campaigning here - and believe me, you get numbers like the ones you posted when you don't have money and when you don't campaign. John has raised over 2 million dollars and has more money that just about any congressional candidate in the country. He has an army of volunteers and a very capable and experienced staff. He is all over the local and national press. He is hitting the local airwaves with paid advertising. He is mailing out lots excellent literature to the voters.

John may have an R next to his name, but he has been endorsed by former Ralph Nader running-mate Matt Gonzalez and anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan. People are responding to John's call for an end to party politics. Our district has more independents than nearly any district in the country. The people here are open minded. 3rd parties do much better in San Francisco than most anywhere else.

I'm not promising a victory but mark my words, as somebody who is on the inside, JOHN CAN WIN! He is not BSing you when he says "within striking distance" and without saying too much - "within striking distance" means he is going to shatter the numbers you predicted above.

I'm not trying to argue with you- I'm just trying to inform. You are entitled to believe what you wish to believe. But I'd hate to see somebody who admires John turn away our volunteer base with information that is obviously well intended, by not accurate given the campaign's unique circumstances.

[tpreitzel]

Interesting ... we'll have to wait and see on election day. Until then, we simply work as we can. This election should be very interesting and hopefully fruitful in bringing constitutional oriented candidates to Washington, D.C.

As required, I plan on being up most of Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning as I assess our immediate situation and prospects for 2012.

[invisible]

You folks are free to ignore this, and I know many of you will. You'll rant and rave. Call me an idiot, or a traitor, or a Dem Party mole- I've seen it before.


What do you expect, when you were telling everyone here back in 2008 to vote for obomba, and openly admitted to voting for him yourself? Now you're essentially right back at it again. Instead of openly shilling for a democrat, this time you're trying your best to discourage opposition to one.

[Imperial]

He has an army of volunteers and a very capable and experienced staff.

Any big-hitters from the political world we may know? I know he got the guy who did those Alabama ads to cut the Wicked Witch of the West ad.

[libertarian4321]

What do you expect, when you were telling everyone here back in 2008 to vote for obomba, and openly admitted to voting for him yourself? Now you're essentially right back at it again. Instead of openly shilling for a democrat, this time you're trying your best to discourage opposition to one.

Ahh, looks like we have a real genius on our hands.

I supported Ron Paul all through the primaries (which you might have known if you'd bothered to show up here before the primaries were over).

I said Obama was being less of an ass and less of a warmonger than McCain/Palin, who in my opinion ran a below the belt cheap shot campaign (all the crap about Obama being a terrorist supporter), and given that I had to choose between a neocon (McCain/Palin) who ran a vile campaign, a neocon who had dissed Ron Paul (Barr) and Obama (a run of the mill liberal), I voted for Obama as a meaningless (in Texas, obviously, my vote was nothing more than symbolic, I'll explain the electoral college system to you if you don't understand it) SCREW YOU message to the Republican Party. I never told anyone to vote for Obama- I just said that at that point, he was the lesser of three evils. BTW, I don't regret it for a second.

Now I suspect you aren't very bright, but I'll give you one more chance.

Can you make an intelligent argument about where I'm wrong in my analysis of John Dennis' chances? If you need help with any of the big words (like demographics) maybe you can find an adult to explain.

I won't hold my breath waiting for an intelligent reply, but I hope to be pleasantly surprised if you redeem yourself.

[johnrocks]

Just in case she loses , I would like to request a dancing moticon smiley face to be added .

I think I'd need more than that, like a cold shower for the next few weeks, this win would give me such a....surge.:p