Immigrants Don't Bring Crime?

[Reason]

http://www.baycitizen.org/blogs/pulse-of-the-bay/immigrants-dont-bring-crime-berkeley/

http://media.baycitizen.org/uploaded/images/2010/10/immigrants-and-crime-graph/lightbox/Screen%20shot%202010-10-20%20at%2012.41.55%20PM.png

A report (http://www.law.berkeley.edu/files/Where_is_the_fire.pdf) published this month by the University of California, Berkeley, shows that crime statistics in California have decreased, even while immigration to the state has continued to increase, according to an article in the Spanish-language newspaper La Opinión (http://www.impre.com/laopinion/noticias/la-california/2010/10/19/sin-conexion-entre-crimen-y-mi-217238-1.html).
In fact, each of the seven California counties — all in Southern California — with the greatest influx of new immigrants have also seen their rate of violent crimes decrease.
"These data offer no support for the assertion that immigration increases crime, particularly violent crime," author Barry Krisberg wrote.
Krisberg said he was motivated to conduct the study, called "Where Is the Fire? Immigrants and Crime in California," because a number of politicians have sought to increase voter support for their election campaigns this year by appealing to the misconception that most immigrants are criminals who pose a threat to public safety.
Senate candidate Carly Fiorina, who has said she supports efforts in Arizona to protect citizens from criminal aliens, and Congressman Duncan Hunter, who, according to La Opinión, described his hometown of San Diego as a city plagued by illegal immigration and border killings, were held up as examples as to why this study matters.
“The dangerous thing,” Krisberg told La Opinion, “is to produce public policies based on fear, myths and political manipulation.”

[Reason]

http://www.law.berkeley.edu/files/Where_is_the_fire.pdf

[RedStripe]

But... but... that one time there was, like, this mexican who drove drunk and killed someone, or something....

[Hemlock]

Look at the rate in 1996. THEY ARE THE FREAKING SAME!

[Brian4Liberty]

Like anything else in the real world, there are just a few more factors than accounted for in this story. Let's plot crime vs. price of gold next.

Some people are criminals, simple. No need for a graph.

[brenden.b]

I think immigration needs to be defined in this study. Is it illegal immigration or legal immigration.

I also question the causality of this study. To me, it looks more like correlation than causation. Like someone mentioned above, there are so many different factors involved that this study seems to leave out.

[fisharmor]

Since I've been trying to get 35 reports coded this week, allow me to shed some light on this by asking the same questions I would ask if I was tasked with producing this graph.

-Define "Los Angeles County".
-Define "Immigration".
-Define "Violent Crime".
-Explain why the precision on the crime rate is different from the precisions used on the other numbers.
-Is "people" assumed to be total population, or is it only immigrants?
-If "people" is assumed to be total population, why is the total population not represented on the graph, as it is meaningful and relevant?

Already I have six questions that could go different ways - and I don't assume that what is represented on this graph is at all related to what we all assume it to be.
And that's not even getting into data validation, or questioning how it was collected.

[dannno]

In fact, each of the seven California counties — all in Southern California — with the greatest influx of new immigrants have also seen their rate of violent crimes decrease.
"These data offer no support for the assertion that immigration increases crime, particularly violent crime," author Barry Krisberg wrote.


That's what I've been trying to tell people all along.. I grew up within walking distance of the biggest illegal encampment in Southern California, there were thousands of them all staying in a canyon near by and we had one of the lowest crime rates in the country.. none of the kids at my school got kidnapped or raped or anything.

[johngr]

Rape was until the late '80s all but unheard of in Skandinavia. It still is -- among ethnic Skandinavians, anyway.

If the crime trended upward, the same author would probably be arguing against blaming it on immigrants, perhaps showing a graph indicating depressed economic conditions or citing lack of funding for crime prevention programs.

A downward crime rate trend while immigration trends upward doesn't prove his implication (which he carefully worded to avoid) anymore than an upward crime rate trend would prove the opposite. He doesn't cite the difference in crime rates by race or between immigrants and non-immigrants.

Also it depends on which immigrant group you measure. North Asian minorities have a lower crime rate than native white people. Non-asian minorities have a higher crime rate.

[Petit Tonnerre]

In France we used to have a few skinhead idiots beating up immigrants in the 1980's.

Now it's the contrary, everyday you hear about a group of blacks and/or North Africans having beaten up some white guy, for the sake of being white.

http://h16free.com/images/divers2/jeunedecu.jpg

[oyarde]

That's what I've been trying to tell people all along.. I grew up within walking distance of the biggest illegal encampment in Southern California, there were thousands of them all staying in a canyon near by and we had one of the lowest crime rates in the country.. none of the kids at my school got kidnapped or raped or anything.

Rape may not be reported :) . I never complained about my girfriend in high school .

[dannno]

Rape may not be reported :) .

Immigrants raping children wouldn't be reported :confused:



I never complained about my girfriend in high school .

That's because she wasn't raping you ;)

[oyarde]

[QUOTE=oyarde;2942364]Rape may not be reported :) .

Immigrants raping children wouldn't be reported :confused:




That's because she wasn't raping you ;)

Yes you are right it would be reported .

[axiomata]

Some more immigration and crime stats. (http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2007/07/mea_culpa_how_i.html)


A high fraction of immigrants are young, low-skilled, Hispanic males. Given these demographics, I long assumed that immigrants would have relatively high crime rates. While I kept this problem in perspective, I took it for granted that increased crime was a genuine drawback of immigration.

I was wrong.

A fascinating NBER Working Paper (earlier, free version here) by Kristin Butcher and Anne Piehl shows that, despite their demographics, immigrants are drastically less criminal than native-born Americans. In fact, immigrants have one-fifth the incarceration rate of natives. Yes, natives are incarcerated at five times the rate of the foreign-born:


Using the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Censuses, we show that 18-40 year-old male immigrants have lower institutionalization rates than the native born in each year. The gap in these institutionalization rates widens over the decades, and by 2000 immigrants have institutionalization rates that are one-fifth of the native born.

Is this base statistical trickery? Not likely; these are raw numbers that anyone can double-check against the census. Could these results simply reflect the practice of deporting criminal aliens? Nope; our actual practice is to make immigrants serve their full sentence before expelling them.

But how can we reconcile the facts with the demographics? Butcher and Piehl show that given their demographics, we should expect immigrants to commit crimes at double the native rate. But for some reason(s), demographics yield a massive overprediction; immigrants commit crimes at one-tenth the expected rate given their demographics. Yes, if immigrants acted like otherwise similar natives, they were be ten times as criminal as they actually are.

Why would this be so? The main theories that Butcher and Piehl explore: (1) Immigrants self-select for law-abiding behavior; (2) Immigrants are more responsive to deterrence than natives. Personally, the most plausible story to me is that immigrants feel lucky to be in the U.S. and don't want to forfeit their "big break," so they try extra-hard to stay out of trouble.

[oyarde]

I have spent some time as an adult with emmigrants mostly from Honduras , Central and Southern Mexico and found them to be hard working and mostly law abiding . In my local paper under arrests the only thing I see that they get arrested for that is different than the typical arrests effecting everyone of weed and DUI ( my community is a DUI machine , top five per capita in US ) , is arrests for never having obtained a drivers license .

[oyarde]

Of course on the flip side , MS13 came out of El Salvador and Honduras .

[Carson]

I wouldn't buy the validity of that chart.

For one the crime of illegal immigration isn't being enforced or even counted as a crime by the criminals in the government, which is also another crime that isn't being counted. Not only are there those in the government entrenched in the crime of illegal immigration it also forces otherwise honest people into lives of crime to compete.

You do realize that the elected officials, many creating laws refuse to uphold the very laws their own body enacted.

I wish the government would surrender the flag they've been shaming so so honest people could once again pick it up without the taint the government has been giving it.

Crime down my mule!

[Pete Kay]

Crime rates have gone down, while incarceration rates have gone up. This correlation is not strictly a coincidence.

[Philhelm]

[QUOTE=dannno;2942404]

Yes you are right it would be reported .

You can't rape the willing. Although, I did have a girl a "dated" who had rape fantasies. :eek:

[libertarian4321]

I've always found this "immigrants bring more crime" idea baffling.

I live in San Antonio, a city of well over a million people, with a majority Hispanic population. Many are recent immigrants, both legal and illegal.

I should be living in fear of rampant crime, right? A huge city with tons of immigrants- if you listen to the right wing radio talking heads, San Antonio should be in chaos, with violence all around.

But that's not the case- as I'm sure anyone who has been to both San Antonio and (smaller) cities like Detroit, Baltimore, Washington DC, San Antonio is relatively safe and peaceful dangerous.

Of course, some immigrants are criminals (legal or illegal), just as some natives are criminals, but I've seen no evidence that recent immigrants are any more dangerous than native born persons of similar socio-economic status.

[Live_Free_Or_Die]

For one the crime of illegal immigration isn't being enforced or even counted as a crime by the criminals in the government

That's because it is not a crime and the Federal Political Subdivision has not been delegated power to regulate immigration.

[Zippyjuan]

Even the conservative CATO Institute recongnizes that more immigration has actually led to lower crime rates. http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10650

A recent University of Colorado study supports it too. They controlled for things like income and still found rates lower among immigrants.
http://blogs.westword.com/latestword/2010/05/immigration_may_lower_crime_ra.php

Border cities have noted crime decreases (even in Arizona despite the hype from some politians there). http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2010/05/02/20100502arizona-border-violence-mexico.html



Cochise County's crime rate has been "flat" for at least 10 years, the sheriff added. Even in 2000, when record numbers of undocumented immigrants were detained in the area, just 4 percent of the area's violent crimes were committed by illegal aliens.



Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2010/05/02/20100502arizona-border-violence-mexico.html#ixzz12yGYC64D



While the nation's illegal-immigrant population doubled from 1994 to 2004, according to federal records, the violent-crime rate declined 35 percent.

More recently, Arizona's violent-crime rate dropped from 512 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2005 to 447 incidents in 2008, the most recent year for which data is available.



Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2010/05/02/20100502arizona-border-violence-mexico.html#ixzz12yG2DUAs