Republican longshot Dennis outraises Nancy Pelosi 3:1

[Agorism]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43693.html

Go Dennis

[libertarian4321]

You can look at it two ways.

You can think "Wow, it's wonderful that libertarian conservatives from around the country sent him all that money."

However, others might think "Wow, that's a lot of money being spent on a race that can't be won that may have tipped the balance in a more competitive race elsewhere."

[Aratus]

or the money he raised BRINGS him to within TWO DIGITs of ms. nancy pelosi
and if he then SPENDs the money he could even pull 2% ahead of her a.s.a.p!

[RM918]

Ron was a longshot in '08, and while he didn't win look at the progress that was made.

[Agorism]

Congressional races don't end when it's over though. They are every two years. People just keep campaigning until they win.

[TCE]

You can look at it two ways.

You can think "Wow, it's wonderful that libertarian conservatives from around the country sent him all that money."

However, others might think "Wow, that's a lot of money being spent on a race that can't be won that may have tipped the balance in a more competitive race elsewhere."

That pretty effectively sums up the arguments. Rep for you!

[Aratus]

if john dennis gets above 40% to 42% now, he WINS in 2012 if he runs against her again!!!
he's in a very strong position to make some significant inroads into her longterm supporters!

[specsaregood]

That is a helluva a lot for a congressional race......

It's a longshot but if he could pay supporters to knock on doors and get out in front of polling places on election day? Maybe....

As far as the image....well I won't say what I think of this:
http://images.politico.com/global/news/100311_pelosi23_ap_328.jpg

[BamaAla]

That website really wanted to drive home the fact that she has "considerable fundraising prowess" and "prodigious fundraising ability."

[Ekrub]

or 3) The money is being used to EDUCATE people much like Ron Paul did in '08 which may lay the path for future success. Cindy Sheehan and Matt Gonzalez are "endorsing" him for god's sake. People are constantly belly aching on this board about liberty candidates not being principled enough, and we have a guy who is right in line with everything that Ron Paul believes and people complain that money is being wasted on him because he "can't win." News flash people: Ron Paul has about as much of a chance of winning the GOP nomination as John Dennis does winning Pelosi's seat. And actually, I would say that John Dennis has more in common with your average San Fran liberal than Ron Paul does with just about ANYBODY in the GOP right now. Us giving up on one of the few good liberty candidates is discouraging to me, and doesn't give me a good feeling about 2012.

I know that we have to be strategical and such, but in all honesty Congress is where the power lies. (as long as we have good people in office that are willing to take that power) This should be just as much of a focus as the presidency.

Sorry for a bit of a rant, i'm feeling moody this morning.

[Agorism]

Well the money would be better spent in Kentucky of course, but other than that I think he needs more money.

[Ekrub]

Well the money would be better spent in Kentucky of course, but other than that I think he needs more money.

While I totally agree, people are constantly complaining on here how Rand is a warhawk neo-con lite. To me it just sounds like people who aren't willing to put their money where their mouth is. I'm not saying anybody in particular in this thread, just that the sentiment on this board seems to be "Don't support Rand, he is a neo-con. Don't support John Dennis, his district is unwinnable."

[invisible]

While I totally agree, people are constantly complaining on here how Rand is a warhawk neo-con lite. To me it just sounds like people who aren't willing to put their money where their mouth is. I'm not saying anybody in particular in this thread, just that the sentiment on this board seems to be "Don't support Rand, he is a neo-con. Don't support John Dennis, his district is unwinnable."

Funny how the person who keeps saying that Dennis' district is unwinnable admits to voting for obomba, and was telling others here to do the same back in 2008. John Dennis is awesome, he should keep running until he wins - look at how BJ Lawson is doing (in another "democrat district") compared to his run 2 years ago, he could very well make it this time.

[Maximus]

Is Dennis running commercials on tv? It appears he has the cash

[TCE]

Funny how the person who keeps saying that Dennis' district is unwinnable admits to voting for obomba, and was telling others here to do the same back in 2008. John Dennis is awesome, he should keep running until he wins - look at how BJ Lawson is doing (in another "democrat district") compared to his run 2 years ago, he could very well make it this time.

Interesting how you mention Lawson. If he had the funds he did two years ago, it would be Lean Democrat. Since he has far less this time around, well...

The perfect example of how misallocation of funds costs us races. Lawson also should have run for State House, but that's another debate for another thread.

[wormyguy]

You can look at it two ways.

You can think "Wow, it's wonderful that libertarian conservatives from around the country sent him all that money."

However, others might think "Wow, that's a lot of money being spent on a race that can't be won that may have tipped the balance in a more competitive race elsewhere."

Well, one could think of his campaign as a local turnout operation for Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina. Of course, those aren't exactly races libertarians should get too excited about . . .

[ClayTrainor]

As far as the image....well I won't say what I think of this:
http://images.politico.com/global/news/100311_pelosi23_ap_328.jpg

LOL!

Reminds me of this old gem :D

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk88/yaletiger/sarah-palin-3-invisible-dicks.jpg

[Stary Hickory]

That is a helluva a lot for a congressional race......

It's a longshot but if he could pay supporters to knock on doors and get out in front of polling places on election day? Maybe....

As far as the image....well I won't say what I think of this:
http://images.politico.com/global/news/100311_pelosi23_ap_328.jpg

That image just screams "photo shop me"

[wormyguy]

That image just screams "photo shop me"
Does it really need Photoshop?

[libertybrewcity]

John Dennis needs about 80k votes to win. If 100 percent of conservatives turn out, and a good amount of independents as well as the anti-pelosi dems, he can win this.

[MozoVote]

Even San Francisco should have a viable opposition party. Maybe Dennis gets 30% of the vote or something. Enough to show the GOP the way.

So what if the San Francisco GOP is the farthest left of any other chapter? You think the Dems will nominate anyone the rest of the country can stomach?

We kind of have that dynamic here in North Carolina. The Buncombe County GOP in Asheville is kind of held at arms' length by the rest of the state organization. But hey, it's Asheville. Whadda'ya'expect?

[Thomas]

woohoo! give her a run for her money!

[cindy25]

if the Dems lose the house, Pelosi will resign her seat. This is tradition. Former speakers resign. There would be a by-election Feb 2011. Dennis is getting his name out for that.

[daviddee]

...

[Imperial]

I wonder if, after he loses in a strong run against Nancy Pelosi, he could translate his support into a seat on the SF Board of Supervisors?

That would be really helpful to us in 2012 with Dr. Paul, since if I remember right California delegates are divided in such a way as winning individual areas like San Fran can matter.

[Michigan11]

if the Dems lose the house, Pelosi will resign her seat. This is tradition. Former speakers resign. There would be a by-election Feb 2011. Dennis is getting his name out for that.

Interesting scenario, that I haven't heard or thought of, that looks very possible..

What are others thoughts on this? Could he actually be setting himself up to win the seat after Pelosi resigns?

[Lovecraftian4Paul]

Tough seat to win, of course, but you never know. It would only happen if the hard left that seem to dominate that distract are so de-motivated that they just stay home from the polls.

[sailingaway]

Woot!!

More wizard of oz ads!!!

[Maximus]

I wonder if, after he loses in a strong run against Nancy Pelosi, he could translate his support into a seat on the SF Board of Supervisors?

That would be really helpful to us in 2012 with Dr. Paul, since if I remember right California delegates are divided in such a way as winning individual areas like San Fran can matter.

That's true, I remember Romney campaigning hard here even though McCain pretty much had it in the bag because of the way the delegates are divied up

[libertarian4321]

John Dennis is awesome, he should keep running until he wins - look at how BJ Lawson is doing (in another "democrat district") compared to his run 2 years ago, he could very well make it this time.

Comparing Lawson's district (leans strongly Dem) to Pelosi's district (the most Dem district in the country- a stone cold Dem lock every time) is either the height of idiocy or the height of intellectual dishonesty (you make the call).

Lawson's district (4th NC) typically votes 35-45% for the Republican candidate (in all elections, not just for the House). That is a Hell of a tough district for the Republican to win in, but with enough funding, a good candidate, a good Republican year, and a little luck, the Rep at least has a shot (a long shot, perhaps, but a chance). While I don't expect him to win, I've supported Lawson in both races.

Pelosi's district typically votes NINE TO FIFTEEN PERCENT Republican. Only 9 percent of the registered voters in that district are Republican, probably the lowest of any congressional district in the USA.

As I stated in the Dennis thread, the best any Republican ever did in that race (all House, Senate, and Presidential races since Pelosi's first run in 1992) was 18% by a female candidate named Cheung in 1994 (probably an outlier- she likely did far better than any other Rep candidate because she is an ethnic Chinese in a district that has a very large ethnic Chinese population- however, I find it unlikely that John Dennis is going to have that advantage).

John McCain and George W. Bush both got 12% in that district.

There isn't a chance in Hell that John Dennis is going to get in the high 40's (He'd probably need at least 47% given that the Green and Libertarian candidates typically pull about 3% each in that district).

You simply don't go from ~15% to 45+%. I don't care how much money you have, I don't care how good your candidate is, I don't care if it's a Republican year- you ain't going to make up 30+%. You might go from 15% to 30%, or maybe even 35%, but not 45+%. Nancy Pelosi knows it (which is why she's putting no effort into her campaign), and so does John Dennis- he's a bright guy and a good candidate, but he knows he isn't going to win in that district.

If John Dennis was running in my district in Texas - a fairly competitive district currently held by a bad Dem candidate who is being contested by a bad neocon candidate, he'd have a heck of a good chance of winning. See, DEMOGRAPHICS MATTER- some of you can't seem to grasp the concept. Not every candidate has a chance, no matter how "good" he is- in fact, the majority of districts in the USA are Gerrymandered into ONE PARTY FIEFDOMS where the election if just a formality- the winner is picked during the Primary. Pelosi's district is one of those (probably the most extreme example in the entire country).

Don't be surprised if Pelosi beats Dennis by by 30% or more.

If you can explain where my logic is faulty here, I'd love to hear it...

[AlexMerced]

or 3) The money is being used to EDUCATE people much like Ron Paul did in '08 which may lay the path for future success. Cindy Sheehan and Matt Gonzalez are "endorsing" him for god's sake. People are constantly belly aching on this board about liberty candidates not being principled enough, and we have a guy who is right in line with everything that Ron Paul believes and people complain that money is being wasted on him because he "can't win." News flash people: Ron Paul has about as much of a chance of winning the GOP nomination as John Dennis does winning Pelosi's seat. And actually, I would say that John Dennis has more in common with your average San Fran liberal than Ron Paul does with just about ANYBODY in the GOP right now. Us giving up on one of the few good liberty candidates is discouraging to me, and doesn't give me a good feeling about 2012.

I know that we have to be strategical and such, but in all honesty Congress is where the power lies. (as long as we have good people in office that are willing to take that power) This should be just as much of a focus as the presidency.

Sorry for a bit of a rant, i'm feeling moody this morning.


I agree, of all the candidates making to the general election, John Dennis is the one I'm most excited about even more so than rand paul

[libertarian4321]

I agree, of all the candidates making to the general election, John Dennis is the one I'm most excited about even more so than rand paul

If Dennis was running a state wide election in KY, I'd agree with you.

He needs to run in a district/state where the Republican at least has a chance.

[AlexMerced]

If Dennis was running a state wide election in KY, I'd agree with you.

He needs to run in a district/state where the Republican at least has a chance.

I feel about Dennis the same way I feel about Schiff

1) They are not preaching to the choir, so they are actually bringing new converts into the fray

2) their effort in '10 will bear fruits in '12 expanding the territory that is friendly to our message.

If we keep fighting over a static pie instead of trying to grow that pie, we'll end up back where we started... being co-opted by neo-cons